Re-Considering the Structural Covariates of Gun Crime: An Examination of Direct and Moderated Effects

ABSTRACT

The prevalence of gun violence in the U.S. has resulted in extensive examination of structural covariates of gun crime. The potential influence of institutionally isolated youth and illegal gun availability remains unexplored. Similarly, studies that simultaneously examine the influence of structural disadvantage and Southern culture are scant. We examine the relationships between these measures and gun crime in a sample of U.S. cities (N = 189) through negative binomial regression of data from the NIBRS and ACS. We find illegal gun availability and structural disadvantage maintain direct relationships with city-level gun crime counts. We also report several significant moderated relationships.

Notes

¹ Percent change interpretations are obtained by multiplying a raw coefficient by the standard deviation of that predictor, exponentiating the product, subtracting 1, and multiplying the result by 100 ([exp(B₁ * SD₁) – 1] * 100).

² Direct effects, which have already been discussed, are omitted for display purposes. While modeling moderated effects, a single cross-product interaction term was included in each statistical model.

³ The aggregate number of suicides by firearm is the only measure strongly correlated with measures of household gun ownership in the General Social Survey, which is limited in terms of distribution.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Rick Dierenfeldt

RICK DIERENFELDT is an Assistant Professor of administration of justice at Penn State Wilkes-Barre. His research interests include the relationship between community characteristics, race, and crime, as well as policy evaluation in the fields of policing and corrections. His most recent works have been published in the American Journal of Criminal Justice, Criminal Justice Policy Review, International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, and Security Journal.

Timothy C. Brown

TIMOTHY C. BROWN is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. He received his Ph.D. of Sociology with a concentration in Criminology from Louisiana State University in 2010. His research utilizes both sociological as well as criminological theory in his examination of crime and the criminal justice system. His primary research interests include corrections, deviance, ecological models of crime focusing on social capital, and qualitative research methodology. One of Tim’s primary areas of research and intellectual interest is the trend of mass incarceration in the United States. The goal of this research is to investigate the often neglected detrimental impacts of mass incarceration. His research has been published in such scholarly journals as Deviant Behavior, Homicide Studies, The Social Science Journal, and Sociological Spectrum.

Rocio A. Roles

ROCIO A. ROLES, M.A., is a doctoral candidate and graduate assistant in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. Her areas of research interest include juvenile justice and policy, community policing, and race and ethnicity. Her most recent work is published in the American Journal of Criminal Justice.