Water resources of Afghanistan and related hazards under rapid climate warming: a review

Figures & data

Figure 1. Geographical map of Afghanistan, showing elevation, river lines, hydro-meteorological stations, and glacier coverage, and identifying the four most glacier- covered regions. The subordinating map shows the provincial boundaries of Afghanistan.

Figure 2. Precipitation map of Afghanistan and the nearest parts of the neighbouring countries (after Breckle and Rafiqpoor 2010, Shroder 2014).Source: Natural Resources in Afghanistan, Shroder, J.F., Soil and Vegetation In extremis, 116-137., 2014, with permission from Elsvier.

Table 1. Comparisons of climate study findings at the national scale. X indicates “does not apply” or “information not available.”

No.	Reference	Study area	Dataset and resolution	Baseline data	Data validation period	Trend analysis period	Trend		Future projection
							Temperature	Precipitation	Temperature	Precipitation
1	Savage et al. 2009	Afghanistan	15GCMs 2.5° grid size	1950–1970 observed data; 1970–1999 baseline data	X	1960-2008	+0.6°C since 1960	+0.5 mm/month or 2% increase/decade	+1.4°C by the 2030s +2°C to +6°C by the 2090s	+10 to +20 mm increase by 2030 −10 to −40 mm decrease by 2090
2	NEPA and UNEP 2016	Afghanistan	CORDEX5 0.5° grid size	8 observed meteorological stations (1960–1990); baseline for future projection (1970–2005)	1950–2010 GSPW3 Reanalysis data	1951–1980 to 1981-2010	+1.8°C	No consistent pattern at the scale of Afghanistan but −40 mm decrease in spring precipitation	+1.4°C by 2050 +2.6°C by 2100	+122 mm for the Hindukush highlands −33.8 mm for the north, 1976–2005 to 2021–2050
3	Aich et al. 2017	Afghanistan	CORDEX5 0.5° grid size	8 observed meteorological stations (1960–1990	1950–2010 GSPW3 reanalysis data	1951–1980 to 1981–2010	+1.8°C	−1% average −10 to +10%	+1.7°C 2006–2050; +2.7°C 2006–2090	−1.6%, 2006–2050 −13%, 2006–2090
4	Sidiqi et al. 2018	Afghanistan - Kabul River basin	3GCMs 0.4°× 0.4° to 2.8°× 2.8° grid size	1961–1980	1971–1980 4 Observed meteorological stations	X	X	X	+1.8°C by the 2020s +3.5°C by the 2050s +4.8°C by the 2080s	+30 to +100 mm in the 2020s +50 to +110 mm in the 2050s +70 to +125 mm in the 2080s
5	Aawar et al. 2019	Afghanistan – Kabul Province	8 ground station in 7005 km^2 area	2000–2018	X	2000–2018	0.02 to 0.71°C year^−1	+4.88 to+30.42 mm year^−1	X	X
6	Azizi and Asaoka 2020	Panjshir sub-basin of the Kabul River basin	8 GCMs 0.7°× 0.7° to 2.5°× 2.0° grid size	2000–2020	2009–2015	X	X	X	Under RCP 4.5 +1.45°C (2049–2055) +2.51°C (2089–2095)	Under RCP 4.5 −4.7% (2049–2055) −5.4% (2089–2095)
7	Ghulami et al. (2022)	Kabul River basin	6 GCMs 0.5°× 0.5° grid size	1951–2007 APHRODITE 0.25°× 0.25° grid size	1986–2005	X	X	X	X	2020–2039 Under RCP 4.5 −7.2% to +7.8% RCP 4.5 −3.5% to +6.0% RCP 8.5 2060–2079 −9.3% to +6.9% RCP 4.5 −15.1% to +6.2% RCP 8.5

APHRODITE = Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation; CORDEX5 = Co-ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment 5 (CORDEX5); GCM= Global Climate Model; GSWP3 = Global Soil Wetness Project 3; RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway

Figure 3. Changes in (a) mean temperature, (b) minimum mean, (c) maximum mean and (d) precipitation by season between 1964–1977 and 2007–2018. The two periods shown for are those for which data availability is common to all four stations.

Table 2. Surface water volume in five Afghan river basins between 1969–1980 and 2007–2016 (source: Bromand 2017). BCM: billion cubic metres.

River basins (RB)	Surface water volume in (BCM) (1969–1980)	Surface water volume in (BCM) (2007–2016)	Decreases in (%) (2007–2016)	Projected by 2030 (BCM)	Decreases by 2030 (%)
Kabul – RB	19.271	17.1	−11%	15.3	−21%
Panj-Amu – RB	21.5	18.7	−13%	16.2	−25%
Helmand – RB	10.4	8.4	−19%	7.1	−32%
H.Murghab – RB	3.4	2.53	−26%	1.7	−50%
North –RB	2.1	2.2	5%	2	−5%
Total	57	49	−13%	42.3	−26%

Figure 4. Hydrographs from individual gauging stations for six glacierized basins (a–f) and one snow-fed basin (g) for two time periods (1969–1977 and 2008–2016).

Figure 5. Hydrogeological map of Afghanistan. Compiled by Malyarove and digitized by Hamidi and Saffi in 2017 (Saffi et al. 2019).Source: Hydro-geological booklet Sar-i-Pul province. Saffi et al, Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees. Kabul, Afghanistan. p.44, 2019. with permission from Saffi M.H.

Figure 6. Groundwater fluctuations in Kabul city between 2006 to 2020 at four main locations (KN5 in the east, W6 and W2 in the west, and LG10 in the south part of the city).

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Data availability statement

The climate data of four meteorological stations were acquired from the Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD) http://www.amd.gov.af/ and discharge data of seven hydrological stations (Fig. 1) were obtained from the Ministry of Energy and Water of Afghanistan https://mew.gov.af/en by an official request letter from the University of Lausanne.