Education and support for Scottish Independence, 1979-2016

Figures & data

Table 1. Salient educational and political experiences of the birth cohorts.

Birth cohort	Entered secondary school	Educational context in Britain		Age 18	Political socialisation in Scotland
		Secondary	Higher
−1926	−1938	Selective; wartime	elite	−1944	Pre-war and war
1927–36	1939–48	Selective; mostly wartime	elite	1945–54	Post-war
1937–46	1949–58	Post-war selective	elite	1955–64	Conservative
1947–56	1959–68	Beginnings of non-selective	1960s expansion	1965–74	Labour and first rise of SNP
1957–66	1969–78	Transition to non-selective	Consolidation of 1960s expansion	1975–84	Government of Margaret Thatcher
1967–76	1979–88	Non-selective	Consolidation of 1960s expansion	1985–94	Government of Margaret Thatcher
1977–86	1989–98	Non-selective and national curriculum	Mass	1995–2004	Devolution
1987–91	1999–2003	Non-selective and national curriculum	Mass	2005–2009	Second rise of SNP

Table 2. Highest educational attainment, by year of survey.

Year	Highest attainment						Sample size (=100%)
	Degree	Higher education below degree	Full secondary^a	Mid-secondary^b	Lower than mid-secondary	None
1979	5	4	19	18	2	51	612
1992	5	13	13	19	9	41	811
1997	9	14	14	19	8	35	780
1999	14	15	11	17	7	36	1,355
2000	14	15	11	18	7	34	1,499
2001	15	16	9	14	12	34	1,459
2002	13	17	15	11	15	29	1,524
2003	16	16	14	11	16	27	1,375
2004	19	11	15	15	13	28	1,490
2005	20	14	16	14	12	24	1,416
2006	20	12	16	14	12	25	1,447
2007	22	15	15	15	9	25	1,369
2009	20	15	15	17	11	22	1,374
2010	21	15	16	15	10	22	1,360
2011	24	13	17	15	8	22	1,093
2012	23	15	19	13	9	20	1,119
2013	24	14	14	16	9	23	1,376
2014	26	15	18	14	7	21	1,368
2015	24	16	18	13	7	21	1,181
2016	25	15	16	15	8	20	1,120

Percentage in rows.

^aFor example, Higher Grade or A-level

^bFor example, Standard Grade, O Grade or O level.

Figure 1. Percentage supporting Independence, by year of survey and sex, 1979–2016.

Figure 2. Percentage supporting Independence, by birth cohort and sex, restricted to survey years 2013–16.

Table 3. Highest educational attainment, by birth cohort, restricted to survey years 2013–16.

Birth cohort	Highest attainment
	Degree	Higher education below degree	Full secondary^a	Mid-secondary^b	Lower than mid-secondary	None
−1926	2	9	12	7	8	62
1927–36	8	8	11	9	13	50
1937–46	11	12	11	11	15	40
1947–56	20	17	15	12	9	27
1957–66	22	15	20	20	7	16
1967–76	30	19	16	16	6	12
1977–86	38	15	21	13	2	11
1987–91	39	14	13	19	9	7

Percentage in rows.

^aFor example, Higher Grade or A-level

^bFor example, Standard Grade, O Grade or O level.

Figure 3. Predicted percentage supporting Independence, by year of survey, sex and education, 1979–2016.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A1.

Figure 4. Predicted percentage supporting independence, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts -1926 and 1927–36

Source: predicted values from model in Table A2. The graphs for the cohort ‘-1926’ are truncated at year 2014 because of very small sample numbers for that cohort after that date.

Figure 5. Predicted percentage supporting Independence, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts 1937–46 and 1947–56.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A2.

Figure 6. Predicted percentage supporting Independence, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts 1957–66 and 1967–76, and years 1992–2016.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A2.

Figure 7. Predicted percentage supporting Independence, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts 1977–86 and 1987–91, and years 2003–16.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A2.

Figure 8. Predicted percentage supporting Independence among people with Scottish identity, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts 1927–36, 1957–66, and 1977–86.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A3.

Figure 9. Predicted percentage supporting Independence among people with British identity, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts 1927–36, 1957–66, and 1977–86.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A3.

Figure 10. Predicted percentage with Scottish identity, by year of survey, sex, birth cohort, and education: birth cohorts 1927–36, 1957–66, and 1977–86.

Source: predicted values from model in Table A4.