Regional effects of a green steel industry – fuel substitution and feedstock competition

Figures & data

Figure 1. Regional areas included in the NCFSM.

Figure 2. NCFSM flow chart.

Figure 3. ISI production at different price-levels for hot metal.

Figure 4. Regional price development for woody materials at different hot metal prices.

Figure 5. Changes to end-good consumption at partial transition to charcoal.

Figure 6. Regional price development for woody materials at partial transition to charcoal.

Figure 7. Changes in regional harvest rate from increased potential roundwood supply.

Figure 8. Regional price development from increased roundwood supply.

Table A1. Sets notations.

Set	Description	Contains
AC	Activity	Sawmill (SM), Pulp and paper 1 (PP1), Pulp and paper 2 (PP2), Wood pellet (WP), Bioenergy pulpwood (BEPW), Bioenergy harvesting residues (BEHR), Bioenergy woodchips (BEWC), Bioenergy sawdust (BESD), Bioenergy bark (BEBK), Bioenergy pellets (BEWP), Bio-charcoal pulpwood (BCPL), Bio-charcoal sawdust (BCSD), Steel mill (ST)
BCC	Bio-charcoal charcoal	Charcoal
BP	By-products	Woodchips, Sawdust, Bark
ByC	By-product consumers	PP1, WP, BEWC, BESD, BEBK, BCSD
ByP	By-product producer	SM
CAC	Charcoal activity	BCPL, BCSD
HR	Harvesting residues	HR
i	Region	Norrbotten County (NB), Rest of northern Sweden (RoNS), Northern Finland (NF)
NT	Non-tradable goods	Heat, Charcoal, Harvesting residues, Hot metal
o	End-goods	Sawn wood, Kraft paper, Pellet, Heat, Hot metal
RW	Roundwood	Sawlogs (SL), Pulpwood (PW)
SAC	Steel activity	ST
T	Tradable goods	Sawlogs, Pulpwood, Woodchips, Sawdust, Bark, Sawn timber, Kraft paper, Pellet

Table A2. Parameter notations.

a	Reservation price roundwood
b	Reservation price harvesting residues
h	Observed harvesting rate of roundwood
k	Forest industry capacity constraint
l	Lower integral value
p	Observed price
q	Observed quantity final good
r	Observed harvesting rate of harvesting residues
tc	Unit transport cost
ϵ	Inverse elasticity of roundwood
ζ	Collection constraint harvesting residues
η	Price elasticity of roundwood supply
θ	Input-Output coefficient
λ	Roundwood harvesting constraint
μ	Inverse price elasticity of harvesting residues
ξ	Own-price elasticity of end-goods
ρ	Shift parameter harvesting residues
ω	Shift parameter roundwood

Table A3. Variable notations.

Variable	Description
CS	Consumer surplus
H	Roundwood harvesting rate
P	Price
PSHR	Producer surplus harvesting residues
PSRW	Producer surplus roundwood
Q	Consumption quantity of end-good
R	Harvesting rate residues
TR	Trade quantities
TTC	Total trace cost
Welfare	Welfare
X	Consumption quantity of input

Table A4. Forest industries and steel mill in Norrbotten County.

Sectors	Firms
Sawmill	Stenvalls Trä, Jutos Timber, SCA Timber Munksund, Setra Rolfs, Krekula & Lauris
Pulp and paper	SCA Packaging Munksund, Smurfit Kappa, BillerudKorsnäs Karlsborg
Wood pellet	Bioenergi i Luleå, Stenvalls Trä, Pajala Energi, Glommers
Bioenergy (municipal district heating)	Arjeplog, Arvidsjaur, Boden, Gällivare, Haparanda, Jokkmokk, Kalix, Kiruna, Luleå, Pajala, Piteå, Älvsbyn, Överkalix, Övertorneå
Steel mill	SSAB Luleå

Table A5. Reference prices for woody commodities split between user type.

i	Sawlog	Pulpwood	Woodchips	Woodchips	Sawdust	Sawdust	Bark	Bark	Harv. Residues
NB	429	274
RoNS	429	274
NF	558	294
All			43	49	71	80	119	136	92
User type	Forest industry	Forest industry/Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Bioenergy

Sources: Novator (2006); JTI (2013); SFA (2014); LUKE (2017).

Note: Prices in SEK/m³fub or SEK/m³f. Harv. residues = Harvesting residues.

Table A6. Estimated feedstock prices at different hot metal prices.

Hot metal price	i	Sawlogs	Pulpwood	Woodchips	Woodchips	Sawdust	Sawdust	Bark	Bark	Harv.
										residues
1.500	NB	431	285	45	51	464	538	400	455	309
	RoNS	434	283	45	51	527	603	682	776	92
	NF	518	285	45	51	414	481	312	355	241
2.000	NB	431	290	46	52	473	538	400	455	309
	RoNS	434	289	45	52	530	603	682	776	92
	NF	518	291	46	52	423	481	312	355	241
2.500	NB	431	295	47	53	480	546	400	455	309
	RoNS	434	294	47	53	530	603	682	776	92
	NF	518	296	47	53	430	489	312	355	241
	User type	Forest industry	Forest industry /Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Bioenergy

Note: Prices in SEK/m³fub or SEK/m³f.

Table A7. Estimated feedstock prices at different transition levels.

Trans. Rate (%)	i	Sawlogs	Pulpwood	Woodchips	Woodchips	Sawdust	Sawdust	Bark	Bark	Harv.
										residues
10	NB	430	274	43	49	85	97	148	169	115
	RoNS	431	274	43	49	87	99	178	202	92
	NF	555	294	43	49	83	94	139	159	108
25	NB	430	274	43	49	121	138	216	246	167
	RoNS	431	274	43	49	124	141	314	357	92
	NF	543	294	43	49	110	125	139	212	144
50	NB	431	274	43	49	202	230	344	391	265
	RoNS	434	273	43	49	219	249	569	647	92
	NF	518	294	43	49	173	196	274	311	211
	User type	Forest industry	Forest industry/	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Bioenergy
			Bioenergy

Note: Prices in SEK/m³fub or SEK/m³f.

Table A8. Estimated feedstock price at increased roundwood supply.

λ	i	Sawlogs	Pulpwood	Woodchips	Woodchips	Sawdust	Sawdust	Bark	Bark	Harv.
										residues
2	NB	431	139	22	25	226	257	181	206	140
	RoNS	434	129	21	23	247	281	243	276	90
	NF	518	133	21	24	195	222	162	184	125
	User type	Forest industry	Forest industry/	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Forest industry	Bioenergy	Bioenergy
			Bioenergy

Note: Prices in SEK/m³fub or SEK/m³f.

Novator. 2006. Fakta om biobränsle [Fact about biofuels]; [cited 2017 Oct]. Available from: http://www.novator.se/bioenergy/facts/fakta-1.html.

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SFA. 2014. Skogsstatistisk årsbok 2014 – Swedish statistical yearbook of forestry. Swedish Forest Agency.

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LUKE. 2017. Statistics database. Natural Resources Institute Finland ; [cited 2017 Nov]. Available from: http://statdb.luke.fi/PXWeb/pxweb/en/LUKE/?rxid=aefb4d14-6df8-4981-a304-01c37a46d087.

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