Land use and the incidence of forced displacement

Figures & data

Figure 1. Percentage of municipality area under collective titling.

Figure 2. Game tree.

Figure 3. Model thresholds. Panel (a): armed group's threshold. Panel (b): government's threshold.

Figure 4. Equilibria. Panel (a): equilibria. Panel (b): correlation between productivity and modern agriculture. Note. Area I: low security and no displacement. Area II: low security and displacement. Area III: high security and no displacement.

Table 1. Description of variables.

Variable	Description	Source
IDPs expulsion rate	Annual number of IDPs expelled from a municipality, divided by the municipality’s population in the same year, multiplied by 1,000.	Unit for the victims assistance and reparation
Collective titles granted	Total area of collective titles granted in the municipality	Obsevatorio de territorios étnicos y campesinos
Productive land under collective tenure	Area of all agricultural production units under collective tenure in a municipality (in km^2)	Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) – National Agricultural Census 2014
Land suitability	Area suitable for producing warm weather intensive crops in a municipality based on climate factors and soil characteristic (in km^2)	Agustin Codazzi Geographical Institute (IGAC)
Per-capita tax revenue	Total municipal tax revenue divided by the municipality’s population in the same year	National Department of Planning (DNP)
Conflict intensity	Total number of terrorist and subversive actions	National Ministry of Defense
Coca cultivated area	Area cultivated with coca crops (in hectares)	United Nations Office on Drugs, Crime (UNODC)
Population	Population of the municipality (in millions)	DANE
Area	Area of the municipality (in km^2)	DANE
Altitude	Altitude above sea level (in meters)	DANE
Agricultural land area	Municipality area devoted to agriculture (in km^2)	DANE – National Agricultural Census 2014
Atlantic	Dummy variable = 1 if the municipality is located in the Atlantic region	DANE
Oriental	Dummy variable = 1 if the municipality is located in the Oriental region	DANE
Pacific	Dummy variable = 1 if the municipality is located in the Pacific region	DANE
Central	Dummy variable = 1 if the municipality is located in the Central region	DANE

Table 2. Dependent and control variables descriptive statistics.

Statistic	N	Mean	St. Dev.	Min	Max
Area	16,815	1,017.81	3,210.93	15.83	65,597.21
Population	16,830	0.039	0.239	0.000	7.337
Conflict Intensity	16,815	0.691	2.881	0.000	127.000
Coca cultivated area	16,830	76.208	491.149	0	23,148
Per-capita tax revenue	16,481	0.154	0.230	0.000	5.698
IDPs expulsion rate	16,496	13.117	33.664	0.000	919.507
Collective titles granted	16,815	45.53	293.21	0.000	4,491.50
Land suitability	16,815	13.177	55.861	0.000	717.972
Land suitability dummy	16,830	0.200	0.400	0	1
Productive land under collective tenure (2014)	1,122	46.860	292.503	0	4,173
Agricultural land area (2014)	1,122	396.43	1,138.02	0.124	24,248.6
Altitude	1,122	1,120.25	905.09	2	3,087

Table 3. Fixed-effects estimations.

	Dependent variable
	IDPs expulsion rate
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_{t-1}$	0.024**	0.025**	0.024**	0.024**
	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.011)
Population		83.245***	82.947***	82.976***
		(28.788)	(28.631)	(28.642)
Conflict intensity		1.372***	1.370***	1.371***
		(0.357)	(0.357)	(0.357)
Coca cultivated area		0.002	0.002	0.002
		(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)
Per-capita tax revenue		6.416***	6.458***	6.456***
		(1.810)	(1.816)	(1.816)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_{t-1}*$ Land suitability			0.015***
			(0.003)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_{t-1}*$ Land suitability				0.467**
				(0.226)
Observations	15,399	15,374	15,374	15,374
R^2	0.001	0.014	0.014	0.014

Note. All specifications include municipal and year fixed effect. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. Significance level: ***1%; **5%; *10%.

Table 4. Robustness check.

	Dependent variable:
	IDPs expulsion rate
	(1)	(2)	(3)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_{t-1}$	0.023**
	(0.012)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_{t-1}*$ Land suitability	0.016***
	(0.004)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_t$		0.028**	0.021*
		(0.013)	(0.012)
${\text{Collective titles granted}}_t*$ Land suitability		0.012***
		(0.002)
Observations	15,371	16,471	2,664
R^2	0.013	0.014	0.002

All specifications include municipal and year fixed effect. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. Significance level: ***1%; **5%; *10%.

Table 5. Cross-section estimations.

	Dependent variable:
	IDPs 2015			IDPs 2014
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Productive land under collective tenure 2014	0.019***	0.016***	0.013***	0.015***
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Population		−2.823**	−2.131	−2.164
		(1.435)	(1.563)	(1.684)
Conflict intensity		0.403**	0.265	0.241
		(0.161)	(0.162)	(0.175)
Coca cultivated area		0.008**	0.007**	0.009***
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Per-capita tax revenue 2014		−5.264***	−5.876***	−6.545***
		(1.458)	(1.655)	(1.667)
Agricultural land area 2014		−0.001	−0.001	−0.001*
		(0.001)	(0.0005)	(0.001)
Area		0.001**	0.001**	0.001***
		(0.0003)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)
Altitude		−0.001***	−0.003***	−0.003***
		(0.0004)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Atlantica			−5.700***	−5.122***
			(1.803)	(1.947)
Oriental			−0.232	−2.101
			(1.654)	(1.454)
Pacifica			6.050***	8.070***
			(1.534)	(1.544)
Central			2.553*	3.705**
			(1.460)	(1.568)
Constant	6.613***	8.492***	10.056***	11.568***
	(0.595)	(0.952)	(1.986)	(2.008)
Observations	1,101	1,101	1,101	1,101
R^2	0.072	0.130	0.156	0.314

Note. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. Significance level: ***1%; **5%; *10%.