‘Closing the gap’: the conditions under which children in care are most likely to catch up in mainstream schools

Figures & data

Figure 1. Samples used in the research.

Table 1. Distribution of KS2 variables and outcomes in construction sample and CLA12 sample

Explanatory Variables	Frequency		Standardised Attainment
	Number	% of Total	At KS2	At KS4
Construction Sample
Female^1	259,737	49.7%	0.11	0.24
White British^1	408,587	78.3%	0.08	0.10
Any SEN^1	49,976	9.6%	−0.89	−0.39
High unauthorised absence^2	185,918	35.5%	−0.09	−0.03
Excluded^2	4,477	0.9	−0.67	−0.81
FSM^3	90,812	17.9%	−0.37	−0.26
Low KS2 attainment^1	143,328	27.5%	−1.09	−0.43
Social need^1	31,970	6.1%	−0.50	−0.72
Total sample	522,119	100%	0.08	0.13
CLA12 Sample
Female^1	1,358	53.7%	−0.67	−0.55
White British^1	2,038	80.6%	−0.74	−0.66
Any SEN^1	896	35.4%	−1.28	−0.79
High unauthorised absence^2	765	30.3%	−0.74	−0.73
Excluded^2	113	4.5%	−0.80	−1.11
FSM^3	1,405	55.6%	−0.76	−0.62
Low KS2 attainment^1	1,471	58.1%	−1.39	−0.82
BESD^1	894	35.4%	−0.70	−0.82
Stable^4	1,374	54.4%	−0.73	−0.34
Ever Abnormal SDQ^1	1,105	47.5%	−0.90	−0.85
Total Sample	2,528	100%	−0.70	−0.61

¹If present at any KS.

²Measured over KS3.

³Measured as at end of KS1.

⁴Measured over KS4.

Table 2. Fixed parts of two multi-level models predicting KS4 outcomes from KS2 measures

	Model 1		Model 2
	Coefficient	SE	Coefficient	SE
Constant	367.115	0.445	363.156	0.366
Male^1	−15.522	0.163	−16.085	0.143
White British^1	−12.448	0.245	−10.728	0.217
ASD^1	−5.517	0.830	−5.591	0.780
MLD^1	−2.321	0.431	−1.762	0.464
SMLD^1	−19.290	2.382	−15.862	2.659
Other need^1	−2.481	0.338	−2.063	0.328
Exclusion^2	−26.330	0.837	−26.641	0.978
High unauthorised absence^2	−11.720	0.220	−9.798	0.207
Standardised KS1 attainment^3	6.090	0.138	5.965	0.126
Standardised KS2 attainment^4	39.780	0.183	44.602	0.172
No FSM record^3	4.447	0.812	4.820	0.667
FSM^3	−15.679	0.220	−16.192	0.306
Social need^1	−50.852	0.330	−50.077	0.672
Low KS2 attainment^4	6.730	0.277	12.505	0.457

¹If present at any KS.

²Measured over KS2.

³Measured as at end of KS1.

⁴Measured as at end of KS2.

Table 3. Level 2 random parts of two multi-level models predicting KS4 outcomes

	Model 1		Model 2		R
Level 2 (school)	Var/Cova.	SE	Var/Cova.	SE
Constant	513.052	12.810	326.693	8.401	1.000
Constant/FSM			57.562	5.729	0.341
FSM variance			87.451	6.720	1.000
Social need/constant			104.697	12.626	0.288
Social need/FSM			102.931	10.908	0.547
Social need variance			405.154	32.852	1.000
Low attainment/constant			118.738	7.901	0.326
Low KS2 attainment/FSM			114.667	7.179	0.609
Low KS2 attainment/social need			173.869	15.466	0.429
Low KS2 attainment variance			404.842	13.400	1.000

Table 4. Summary characteristics of two multi-level models predicting KS4 outcomes

	Model 1	Model 2
Units level 2	3,791	3,791
Units level 1	522,119	522,119
Deviance	5,669,518.490	5,584,329.266

Table 5. CLA12 sample: predicting KS4 attainment from KS2 baseline data

Predictors	Coefficient	SE
Constant	266.364	5.715
Male^1	−6.500	3.467
White British^1	−13.159	4.317
SDQ^2	−19.073	1.854
Stability^3	48.367	3.441
ASD^1	−9.006	16.450
MLD^1	−16.573	5.881
SMLD^1	−72.450	22.824
Other Need^1	−8.282	5.290
High unauthorised absence^4	−2.260	4.061
Exclusion^4	−32.739	8.346
FSM^5	1.542	3.418
No FSM record^5	1.965	22.310
Standardised KS1 attainment^5	1.958	1.698
Standardised KS2 attainment^6	30.368	2.256
BESD^1	−24.836	4.264
General effect measure	11.849	1.972
FSM effect measure	0.584	3.571
Social need effect measure	6.837	2.648
Low KS2 effect measure (LKS2EM)	14.628	2.765
LKS2EM* standardised KS2 attainment^2	−11.445	1.934
School variance	0.00	0.00
Child variance	6840.607	194.299
Schools (n)	1,486
Individuals (n)	2,489

¹If present at any KS.

²Latest available measure.

³Measured over KS4.

⁴Measured over KS3.

⁵Measured at end of KS1.

⁶Measured at end of KS2.

Figure 2. Proportions making considerable progress under different conditions.