Is a more selective exit exam related to shadow education use? An analysis of two cohorts of final-year secondary school students in the Netherlands

Figures & data

Figure 1. Average results of Dutch secondary school leaving exam (Dienst Uitvoering Onderwijs, 2020).

Table 1. Standardised mean differences before and after matching.

	Before Matching			After matching
	M-C	M-T	d	M-C	M-T	d
SES: low	.10	.12	.02	.11	.12	.01
SES: average	.12	.10	.06	.12	.11	.02
SES: high	.35	.31	.09	.35	.33	.06
Performance	.53	.59	−.12	.53	.56	−.07
Profile: non-technical	−.16	−.09	−.01	−.16	−.96	.08
Profile: technical	.75	.69	.14	.75	.79	−.09
Intellectual ability	.25	.31	−.14	.25	.21	.09
Motivation	−.15	1.88	−.16	−.15	−.46	.02
Exam track: havo	−.00	.01	−.03	−.00	−.00	.00
Exam track: vwo	.67	.45	.45	.67	.67	−.02
Gender: boy	.33	.55	−.45	.33	.33	.02
Gender: girl	.44	.44	−.00	.44	.43	.01

Note. M = mean, T = treatment (n = 1,694), C = control (n = 808).

Table 2. Fit statistics for models (fit rank in parentheses).

Model	AIC	BIC	χ(2)	df	p
Empty model (class)	2685.69 (2)	2697.34 (2)
Empty model (school)	2692.85 (3)	2704.50 (3)	.00
Empty nested model (class and school)	2666.48 (1)	2683.96 (1)	28.37	1	0.0000

Note. AIC = Akaike information criterion, BIC = Bayesian information criterion. Lower values indicate better fit. df = degrees of freedom.

Table 3. Parameter estimates, standard errors, and fit statistics of the multilevel (random intercept) logistic regression models predicting likelihood of attending shadow education.

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
	B	SE B	B	SE B	B	SE B
Constant	−1.23***	.18	−2.00***	.26	−2.05***	.26
Post-policy cohort	0.45**	.20	0.37***	.00	0.43***	.00
Student-level covariates	No		Yes		Yes
Higher-level covariates	No		No		Yes
ICC (class)	.08		.08		.08
ICC (school)	.07		.06		.05
N	2,502		2,502		2,502
Akaike Inf. Crit.	2,662.88		2,588.37		2,588.37
Bayesian Inf. Crit.	2,686.18		2,658.27		2,658.27

Note. ICC = intraclass correlation.

Significance level = **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01.

Dienst Uitvoering Onderwijs (DUO).(2020).Geslaagden, gezakten en gemiddelde examencijfers per instelling. [Graduates, number of non-pass, and average exam scores by institution]. Dienst Uitvoering Onderwijs (DUO) - Dutch Ministry of Education. https://duo.nl

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