Predicting silage maize yield and quality in Sweden as influenced by climate change and variability

Figures & data

Table I. Characterization of the simulated German silage maize cultivars. For explanation of S and K, see the text.

Cultivar	Silage maturity rating	Grain maturity rating	Maturation type
Janna	S200	K180	Normal
Justina	S210	K250	Dry-down
Noveta	S230	K230	Normal
Calimera	S250	K220	Stay-green

Table II. Positions of locations (weather stations) used for the simulations, and the simulation periods and applications in which the locations are used. Locations are sorted into three regions: Southern Götaland, Northern Götaland and Svealand, respectively.

City	Latitude	Longitude	Period	Application^d
Southern Götaland
Halmstad (Eldsberga)	56°36′N	13°00′E	2003–2009	2
Lund	55°44′N	13°04′E	1961–2009^a	2, 3
Kristianstad	56°07′N	14°16′E	2003–2009	1, 2
Kalmar	56°31′N	16°26′E		2
Visby	57°36′N	18°26′E	1961–2009^b	1, 2, 3
Northern Götaland
Skara	58°23′N	13°26′E	1961–2009^c	1, 2, 3
Linköping (Malmslätt)	58°24′N	15°30′E	2003–2009	2
Svealand
Karlstad	59°22′N	13°30′E	2003–2009	2
Örebro	59°16′N	15°12′E	2003–2009	2
Uppsala	59°49′N	17°42′E	1961–2009	1, 2, 3
Missing years: ^a1997, 1999–2002; ^b1988–89, 1995–2002 (1988–1989 were also missing in the future climate change simulations).
^dApplication: 1, simulation study 1: cultivar effect; 2, simulation study 2: within-region variation; 3, simulation study 3: impact of past and future climate variability.

Table III. Simulated maize harvest date, dry-matter yield, dry-matter content and starch content for different cultivars at selected locations during the 2003–2009 period. Values are provided as absolute values and expressed as the relative value to the mean of all cultivars. A year is classified as successful when a dry-matter content of 340 g kg⁻¹ is achieved; [ ] refers to 280 g kg⁻¹.

			Yield		DM content		Starch content
Location  cultivar	Sowing (date)	Harvest (date)	(t ha^−1)	% of mean	(g kg^−1)	Successful years (%)	(g kg^−1)	% of mean
Kristianstad
Mean	21-May	22-Oct	12.7	100	320	36 [93]	238	100
Janna	21-May	15-Oct	12.0	94	334	57 [100]	320	135
Justina	21-May	17-Oct	13.6	107	330	57 [100]	145	61
Noveta	21-May	26-Oct	12.2	96	318	29 [100]	262	110
Calimera	21-May	31-Oct	13.0	102	299	0 [71]	224	94
Visby
Mean	28-May	29-Oct	12.8	100	282	11 [46]	192	100
Janna	28-May	27-Oct	12.3	96	299	14 [71]	285	149
Justina	28-May	27-Oct	13.3	104	293	14 [71]	115	60
Noveta	28-May	29-Oct	12.3	96	279	14 [29]	214	112
Calimera	28-May	31-Oct	13.2	103	255	0 [14]	153	80
Skara
Mean	23-May	31-Oct	11.8	100	252	0 [11]	139	100
Janna	23-May	31-Oct	11.1	94	271	0 [14]	234	169
Justina	23-May	31-Oct	13.0	110	267	0 [14]	77	55
Noveta	23-May	31-Oct	11.3	96	248	0 [14]	168	121
Calimera	23-May	31-Oct	11.7	99	222	0 [0]	76	55
Uppsala
Mean	28-May	31-Oct	11.5	100	255	0 [28]	138	100
Janna	28-May	31-Oct	11.1	97	272	0 [43]	226	164
Justina	28-May	31-Oct	12.5	109	267	0 [43]	81	59
Noveta	28-May	31-Oct	10.8	94	253	0 [14]	159	115
Calimera	28-May	31-Oct	11.4	100	229	0 [0]	86	62

Table IV. Simulated maize sowing and harvest dates, dry-matter yield, dry-matter content and starch content for different locations for the early cultivar Janna. Average for 2003–2009. A year is classified as successful when a dry-matter content of 340 g kg⁻¹ is achieved before 31 October.

			Yield		DM content		Starch fraction
Location	Sowing (date)	Harvest (date)	(t ha^−1)	SD	(g kg^−1)	Successful years (%)	(g kg^−1)	SD
Southern Götaland
Halmstad	16-May	10-Oct	13.6	0.7	336	71	328	12.6
Lund	14-May	24-Sept	12.0	1.5	343	100	329	7.2
Kristianstad	21-May	15-Oct	12.0	1.5	334	57	320	12.1
Kalmar	25-May	27-Oct	12.4	1.2	314	29	294	28.2
Visby	28-May	27-Oct	12.3	1.2	299	14	285	24.3
Northern Götaland
Skara	23-May	31-Oct	11.5	1.2	271	0	234	41.3
Linköping	24-May	31-Oct	10.9	1.9	292	0	257	32.0
Svealand
Karlstad	30-May	31-Oct	11.3	1.0	252	0	195	34.3
Örebro	24-May	31-Oct	11.7	1.3	273	0	242	24.9
Uppsala	28-May	31-Oct	11.1	1.2	265	0	213	57.9

Figure 1.  Simulated maize production and harvest date for cultivar Janna from 1961 to 2009 for Lund (circles and upper regression line) and Uppsala (crosses and lower regression line) versus year. The probability of slope (p_Slope) of the regression lines being different from zero is larger than 99.9% unless specified. Year in the equation is the number of year since 1960.

Table V. Simulated maize dry-matter yield, dry-matter content and starch content for different years at selected locations for the early cultivar Janna, for different periods between 1961 and 2100. A year is classified as successful when DM content becomes 340 g kg⁻¹ before 31 October; [ ] refers to 280 g kg⁻¹. For information concerning missing years see Table II.

			Yield		DM content		Starch content
Location  period	Sowing (date)	Harvest (date)	(t ha^−1)	SD	(g kg^−1)	Successful years (%)	(g kg^−1)	SD
Lund
1961–1990	23-May	24-Oct	9.7	2.1	282	13 [43]	197	77
1991–2009	17-May	6-Oct	11.0	1.8	329	71 [93 ]	306	39
2011–2040	8-May	1-Oct	11.1	2.2	332	70 [100]	276	33
2041–2070	2-May	19-Sept	11.2	2.2	342	90 [100]	286	21
2071–2100	12-Apr	28-Aug	10.3	2.3	342	100 [100]	285	18
Visby
1961–1990	3-June	31-Oct	5.1	2.3	245	1 [23]	120	80
1991–2009	30-May	27-Oct	9.1	3.5	289	2 [57]	247	65
2011–2040	18-May	9-Oct	7.0	2.7	324	57 [83]	227	56
2041–2070	12-May	26-Sept	7.1	2.7	335	80 [100]	240	46
2071–2100	18-Apr	25-Aug	6.1	2.4	343	100 [100]	223	70
Skara
1961–1990	30-May	31-Oct	6.4	2.3	203	0 [0]	63	45
1991–2009	24-May	31-Oct	9.7	2.8	250	0 [18]	185	87
2011–2040	15-May	26-Oct	8.7	2.7	276	11 [48]	168	79
2041–2070	11-May	18-Oct	10.1	2.7	301	27 [63]	206	68
2071–2100	2-May	2-Oct	10.2	3.1	326	63 [89]	243	56
Uppsala
1961–1990	1-June	31-Oct	6.3	2.2	201	0 [0]	63	48
1991–2009^a,b	27-May	31-Oct	9.2(8.8)	2.3(2.6)	241(252)	0 [32] (0)	159 (165)	79 (79)
2011–2040	19-May	27-Oct	8.8	2.6	269	7 [43]	165	75
2041–2070	14-May	18-Oct	10.2	2.7	304	40 [70]	217	68
2071–2100	4-May	1-Oct	9.8	2.9	326	63 [87]	246	46
^a1997 and 1999–2002 are lacking; ^b( ) are all years 1991–2009.

Table VI. Maize dry-matter yield, dry-matter content and starch content for the early cultivar Janna grown at four locations simulated for different periods between 2011 and 2100. A year is classified as successful when a dry-matter content of 340 g kg⁻¹ is achieved before 31 October; [ ] refers to 280 g kg⁻¹. Simulations are similar to Table V except that sowing date is assumed to occur on average about 2 weeks later. For information concerning missing years see Table II.

			Yield		DM content		Starch content
Location  period	Sowing (date)	Harvest (date)	(t ha^−1)	SD	(g kg^−1)	Successful years (%)	(g kg^−1)	SD
Lund
2011–2040	19-May	17-Oct	11.4	2.1	309	37 [73]	233	68
2041–2070	14-May	5-Oct	11.6	2.2	327	67 [90]	260	43
2071–2100	28-April	12-Sept	11.0	2.3	343	100 [100]	279	21
Visby
2011–2040	29-May	25-Oct	7.6	2.5	292	17 [63]	178	78
2041–2070	24-May	14-Oct	7.9	2.6	313	47 [80]	205	65
2071–2100	3-May	7-Sept	6.8	2.4	342	100 [100]	220	68
Skara
2011–2040	27-May	29-Oct	8.2	2.7	234	4 [11]	101	70
2041–2070	23-May	29-Oct	9.9	2.6	263	4 [33]	142	75
2071–2100	14-May	18-Oct	10.5	2.6	298	30 [63]	197	73
Uppsala
2011–2040	30-May	29-Oct	8.6	2.4	227	7 [10]	98	69
2041–2070	24-May	28-Oct	10.2	2.5	261	7 [43]	149	74
2071–2100	16-May	17-Oct	10.4	2.7	300	37 [67]	203	74

Table Ia. MAISPROQ model parameter values of four silage maize varieties currently used in Germany. Values were taken from Herrmann et al. (2005b).

Growth module	Cultivar	Rs (d^−1)	aAge (g m^−2)	bAge (−)	W t (t=0) (g m^−2)
	Janna	0.210	2.32	500	0.960
	Justina	0.217	1.90	500	0.965
	Noveta	0.199	2.00	500	1.020
	Calimera	0.202	1.75	500	0.990
Quality module
DM content	Cultivar	QMin (%)	QMax (%)	v (−)	c (−)
	Janna	11.70	73.40	105.34	5.15
	Justina	11.55	98.90	114.52	4.44
	Noveta	11.10	132.25	133.54	3.93
	Calimera	11.35	150.10	139.68	4.55
Starch content
	Janna	0.21	38.47	81.67	11.82
	Justina	0.21	33.70	97.26	12.13
	Noveta	0.27	39.90	109.11	10.47
	Calimera	0.52	32.35	108.17	17.84

Table IIa. Monthly mean temperature and precipitation sum for the 1961–1990 and 1991–2009 periods, and climate changes for future periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 (2071–00) compared with 1961–1990, applied in the climate change assessments (SMHI 2007). Precipitation change is given in %. Some years are missing, see Table II.

Location  period	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Temperature (°C)
Lund
1961–90	−0.6	−0.5	1.9	6.0	11.5	15.5	16.8	16.6	13.1	9.1	4.6	1.1	7.9
1991–09	1.0	0.6	2.7	7.5	11.9	15.1	17.8	17.3	13.5	8.9	4.9	2.3	8.6
2011–40	2.5	3.4	3.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	2.1
2041–70	3.5	3.5	3.5	2.5	2.3	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	3.5	3.3	2.9
2071–00	4.9	5	5.5	4.5	2	3.5	3.8	4.5	4	4.5	4.5	4.2	4.2
Visby
1961–90	−1.1	−1.8	0.1	4.0	9.6	14.2	16.3	15.9	12.2	8.1	3.9	0.7	6.8
1991–09	0.5	−0.6	1.0	5.1	10.0	14.0	17.2	16.9	12.6	8.1	3.9	2.0	7.5
2011–40	2.5	3.5	3.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2	2.3	1.5	2	2.5	1.5	2.4
2041–70	3.5	3.8	4.5	3.5	2.9	2.9	2.9	3.2	2.5	2.5	3.5	2.5	3.2
2071–00	5.1	6	5.8	6.3	5.5	4.2	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	5.0
Skara
1961–90	−3.8	−3.7	−0.1	4.5	10.3	14.4	15.5	14.7	10.7	6.9	2.0	−1.5	5.8
1991–09	−0.7	−1.7	1.1	6.2	10.8	13.9	16.7	15.5	11.6	6.4	3.3	1.5	7.0
2011–40	2.5	3.5	3.6	2	1.7	1.5	0.8	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	1.5	2.0
2041–70	3.5	3.8	4	2.9	2	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	3.5	3.3	3.0
2071–00	4.3	5.3	5.3	4.3	2.3	2.8	2.8	3.3	3.3	3.8	3.3	3.8	3.7
Uppsala
1961–90	−4.5	−4.6	−1.1	3.8	10.0	14.7	16.1	15.0	10.7	6.3	1.0	−3.0	5.4
1991–09	−2.1	−2.7	0.3	5.3	10.3	14.6	17.4	16.1	11.4	6.0	1.6	−1.1	6.4
2011–40	2.5	3.5	3.5	2.5	1.8	1.5	0.8	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	1.5	2.1
2041–70	3.7	3.8	4.5	3.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	3	3.5	3.1
2071–00	5.3	5.8	5.8	4.8	2.8	2.8	2.8	3.3	3.3	3.8	3.3	3.8	4.0
Precipitation (mm) (%)
Lund
1961–90	53	33	45	40	43	56	69	65	63	60	68	65	660
1991–09	53	41	41	34	48	61	74	72	64	66	65	63	683
2011–40	47	66	20	13	−11	9	−8	−24	−17	19	11	15	9
2041–70	59	66	31	13	−11	9	−23	−24	−7	31	24	48	16
2071–00	64	81	12	30	−12	−9	−28	−27	−17	42	64	41	18
Visby
1961–90	48	27	32	29	29	31	48	50	58	50	57	50	509
1991–09	38	32	33	28	35	42	72	69	42	55	57	48	552
2011–40	30	47	14	−16	−17	−14	0	−28	8	9	24	26	8
2041–70	50	69	30	−6	0	−14	−9	−19	3	11	24	46	15
2071–00	47	80	43	17	17	−16	−16	−50	0	30	42	45	18
Skara
1961–90	39	26	32	38	42	54	59	64	63	60	64	47	587
1991–09	51	32	32	37	47	71	92	85	58	67	64	51	688
2011–40	84	79	50	−15	−13	10	−8	−40	−42	9	26	36	8
2041–70	92	89	83	15	13	4	−17	−40	−8	17	34	60	20
2071–00	60	52	47	37	3	−5	−26	−20	−7	34	32	26	15
Uppsala
1961–90	37	25	27	28	31	44	70	68	58	48	52	43	530
1991–09	34	29	28	34	46	69	59	65	52	55	53	33	555
2011–40	42	56	15	−14	−41	−10	13	−22	−25	10	25	12	3
2041–70	42	56	45	0	−14	0	13	−37	8	10	25	58	13
2071–00	44	34	47	21	−5	−3	−12	−20	−3	44	37	21	12

Table IIIa. Simulated maize sowing and harvest dates, dry matter yield, dry matter content and starch content for different locations for the mid-early cultivar Calimera. Average values for 2003–2009. A year is classified as being successful when a DM content of 340 g kg⁻¹ is achieved before 31 October.

			Yield		DM content		Starch fraction
Location	Sowing (date)	Harvest (date)	(t ha^−1)	SD	(g kg^−1)	Successful years (%)	(g kg^−1)	SD
Southern Götaland
Halmstad	16-May	31-Oct	15.5	1.1	301	0	252	30.1
Lund	14-May	25-Oct	13.9	2.4	338	57	274	14.5
Kristianstad	21-May	31-Oct	13.0	2.1	299	0	224	34.4
Kalmar	25-May	31-Oct	13.3	1.7	264	0	177	40.8
Visby	28-May	31-Oct	13.2	1.6	255	0	153	44.5
Northern Götaland
Skara	23-May	31-Oct	11.9	1.7	227	0	96	53.2
Linköping	24-May	31-Oct	11.0	2.6	244	0	107	57.7
Svealand
Karlstad	30-May	31-Oct	11.6	1.4	211	0	63	12.7
Örebro	24-May	31-Oct	12.2	1.8	228	0	95	35.5
Uppsala	28-May	31-Oct	11.3	1.7	222	0	76	39.0

Table IVa. Simulated maize dry-matter yield, dry-matter content and starch content for different years at selected locations for the mid-early cultivar Calimera and different periods between 1961 and 2100. A year is classified as successful when a dry-matter content of 34% is achieved before 31 October; [] refers to 28%. Concerning missing years see Table II.

	Harvest date		Yield		DM content		Starch content
Location  period		SD (days)	(t ha^−1)	SD	(g kg^−1)	Successful years [%]	(g kg^−1)	SD
Lund
1961–1990	29-Oct	11	9.7	2.9	240	7 [13]	94	94
1991–2009	19-Oct	14	12.1	3.0	309	43 [71]	206	100
2011–2040	16-Oct	24	12.3	3.0	305	33 [70]	210	63
2041–2070	6-Oct	26	12.7	3.3	324	60 [90]	226	70
2071–2100	11-Sept	23	11.8	3.4	342	100 [100]	203	81
Visby
1961–1990	31-Oct	0	4.5	2.4	207	0 [7]	27	27
1991–2009	31-Oct	0	9.1	4.5	246	0 [21]	99	67
2011–2040	23-Oct	18	7.0	3.0	292	23 [57]	78	77
2041–2070	13-Oct	23	7.4	3.1	313	47 [80]	89	81
2071–2100	7-Sept	17	6.3	2.7	343	100 [100]	66	82
Skara
1961–1990	31-Oct	0	5.7	2.5	174	0 [0]	12	8
1991–2009	31-Oct	0	9.6	3.6	211	0 [0]	66	58
2011–2040	29-Oct	10	8.5	3.3	231	4 [19]	66	65
2041–2070	27-Oct	14	10.6	3.5	258	7 [30]	107	74
2071–2100	9-Oct	23	11.2	3.7	292	33 [63]	154	84
Uppsala
1961–1990	31-Oct	0	5.6	2.3	173	0 [0]	12	9
1991–2009	31-Oct	0	8.9	3.1	204	0 [0]	48	47
2011–2040	28-Oct	10	8.5	3.1	227	7 [7]	59	55
2041–2070	27-Oct	15	10.6	3.4	259	7 [40]	107	75
2071–2100	15-Oct	22	10.6	3.3	292	40 [63]	149	82

Table Va. Simulated maize dry-matter yield, dry-matter content and starch content for different years at selected locations for the mid-early cultivar Calimera, for different periods between 1961 and 2100. A year is classified as successful when a dry-matter content of 34% is achieved before 31 October; [] refers to 28%. Simulations are similar to Table IVa except that sowing date is assumed to occur on average about 2 weeks later. Concerning missing years see Table I.

	Harvest date		Yield		DM content		Starch content
Location  period		SD (days)	(t ha^−1)	SD	(g kg^−1)	Successful years (%)	(g kg^−1)	SD
Lund
2011–2040	24-Oct	18	12.3	3.0	268	17 [37]	150	76
2041–2070	19-Oct	22	13.1	3.2	295	37 [67]	189	71
2071–2100	24-Sept	26	12.6	3.5	331	90 [97]	207	79
Visby
2011–2040	27-Oct	12	7.2	3.0	248	10 [17]	54	64
2041–2070	25-Sep	17	7.9	3.1	274	13 [47]	68	71
2071–2100	22-Sept	24	7.3	2.9	339	87 [100]	77	88
Skara
2011–2040	31-Oct	0	7.8	3.3	197	0 [4]	34	53
2041–2070	29-Oct	9	9.9	3.4	219	4 [7]	57	62
2071–2100	27-Oct	16	11.1	3.5	255	11 [30]	105	75
Uppsala
2011–2040	31-Oct	0	8.2	2.8	193	0 [7]	29	40
2041–2070	28-Oct	10	10.4	3.2	220	7 [7]	59	57
2071–2100	27-Oct	16	10.3	3.4	256	10 [37]	99	77

Herrmann , A. , Kornher , A. and Taube , F. 2005b . A new harvest time prognosis tool for forage maize production in Germany . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , 130 : 95 – 111 .

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