Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

ABSTRACT

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.

KEYWORDS:

• Technology roadmap
• fuzzy cognitive maps
• scenarios
• technology policy
• wind energy

Notes on contributors

Muhammad Amer is the General Manager of Advanced Engineering Research Organization (AERO) in Islamabad, Pakistan. He recently received his Ph.D. in Technology Management from Portland State University. He was a Fullbright Scholar during his studies.

Tugrul U. Daim is the Associate Chair and an Associate Professor at the Engineering and Technology Management Department at Portland State University. He is also the Director of the Technology Management Doctoral Programme.

Antonie Jetter is an Assistant Professor at the Engineering and Technology Management Department at Portland State University.