Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

References

• Aguilar, J. 2005. “A Survey about Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Papers (Invited Paper).” International Journal of Computational Cognition 3: 27–33.
   Google Scholar
• Alam, S. M., and A. H. Shaikh. 2007. “Wind and Solar Sources for Energy.” Economic Review 38: 24–25.
   Google Scholar
• Alishahi, E., M. P. Moghaddam, and M. K. Sheikh-El-Eslami. 2011. “An Investigation on the Impacts of Regulatory Interventions on Wind Power Expansion in Generation Planning.” Energy Policy 39: 4614–4623. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Amer, M. 2011. “Development of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) Based Scenarios.” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET): Technology Management in the Energy Smart World, 2695–2709.
   Google Scholar
• Amer, M., and T. U. Daim. 2010. “Application of Technology Roadmaps for Renewable Energy Sector.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1355–1370. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.05.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Amer, M., and T. U. Daim. 2011. “Selection of Renewable Energy Technologies for a Developing Country: A Case Study of Pakistan.” Energy for Sustainable Development 15: 420–435. doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2011.09.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Amer, M., and T. U. Daim. 2013. “Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) for the Development of scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment.” In Research and Technology Management in the Electricity Industry: Methods, Tools and Case Studies, edited by T. Daim, T. Oliver, and J. Kim, 1st ed., 129–159. London: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Amer, M., T. U. Daim, and A. Jetter. 2013. “A Review of Scenario Planning.” Futures 46: 23–40. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Amer, M., A. J. Jetter, and T. U. Daim. 2011. “Development of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) Based Scenarios for Wind Energy.” International Journal of Energy Sector Management 5: 564–584. doi: 10.1108/17506221111186378
   Google Scholar
• Antoine, B., K. Goran, and D. Neven. 2008. “Energy Scenarios for Malta?” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 33: 4235–4246. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2008.06.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asif, M. 2009. “Sustainable Energy Options for Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13: 903–909. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2008.04.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barker, D., and D. J. H. Smith. 1995. “Technology Foresight Using Roadmaps.” Long Range Planning 28: 21–28. doi: 10.1016/0024-6301(95)98586-H
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bezold, C. 2010. “Lessons from Using Scenarios for Strategic Foresight.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1513–1518. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bishop, P., A. Hines, and T. Collins. 2007. “The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques.” Foresight 9: 5–25. doi: 10.1108/14636680710727516
   Google Scholar
• Börjeson, L., M. Höjer, K.-H. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, and G. Finnveden. 2006. “Scenario Types and Techniques: Towards a User's Guide.” Futures 38: 723–739. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Brabandere, L., and A. Iny. 2010. “Scenarios and Creativity: Thinking in New Boxes.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1506–1512. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.07.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bradfield, R., G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and K. Van Der Heijden. 2005. “The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning.” Futures 37: 795–812. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bray, O. H., and M. L. Garcia. 1997. “Technology Roadmapping: The Integration of Strategic and Technology Planning for Competitiveness.” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 25–28. Portland, OR.
   Google Scholar
• Breiner, S., K. Cuhls, and H. Grupp. 1994. “Technology Foresight Using a Delphi Approach: A Japanese-German Co-operation.” R&D Management 24: 141–153.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Browne, D., B. O'Regan, and R. Moles. 2009. “Use of Ecological Footprinting to Explore Alternative Domestic Energy and Electricity Policy Scenarios in an Irish City-region.” Energy Policy 37: 2205–2213. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.039
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burt, G. 2010. “Revisiting and Extending Our Understanding of Pierre Wack's the Gentle Art of Re-perceiving.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1476–1484. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.027
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chaudhry, A. M., R. Raza, and S. A. Hayat. 2009. “Renewable Energy Technologies in Pakistan: Prospects and Challenges.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13: 1657–1662. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.025
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, T.-Y., O. S. Yu, G. J.-y. Hsu, F.-M. Hsu, and W.-N. Sung. 2009. “Renewable Energy Technology Portfolio Planning with Scenario Analysis: A Case Study for Taiwan.” Energy Policy 37: 2900–2906. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.028
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chermack, T. 2004. “Improving Decision-making with Scenario Planning.” Futures 36: 295–309. doi: 10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chermack, T. J., S. A. Lynham, and W. E. A. Ruona. 2001. “A Review of Scenario Planning Literature.” Futures Research Quarterly 17: 7–31.
   Google Scholar
• Contaldi, M., F. Gracceva, and A. Mattucci. 2008. “Hydrogen Perspectives in Italy: Analysis of Possible Deployment Scenarios.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 33: 1630–1642. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2007.12.035
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coyle, R. G., and G. R. McGlone. 1995. “Projecting Scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific.” Futures 27: 65–79. doi: 10.1016/0016-3287(94)00001-Y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Curry, A. 2009. “From Foresight to Insight: Using Scenarios Well.” Journal of Futures Studies 13: 119–122.
   Google Scholar
• Czaplicka-Kolarz, K., K. Stanczyk, and K. Kapusta. 2009. “Technology Foresight for a Vision of Energy Sector Development in Poland Till 2030. Delphi Survey as an Element of Technology Foresighting.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 76: 327–338. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.05.007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Daim, T. U., M. Amer, and R. Brenden. 2012. “Technology Roadmapping for Wind Energy: Case of the Pacific Northwest.” Journal of Cleaner Production 20: 27–37. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2011.07.025
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Daim, T. U., I. Iskin, and D. Ho. 2011. “Technology Forecasting for Residential Energy Management Devices.” Foresight 13: 70–87. doi: 10.1108/14636681111179609
   Google Scholar
• Durance, P., and M. Godet. 2010. “Scenario Building: Uses and Abuses.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1488–1492. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Estivill-Castro, V. 2002. “Why So Many Clustering Algorithms: A Position Paper.” ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter 4: 65–75. doi: 10.1145/568574.568575
   Google Scholar
• Gerdsri, N. 2004. “An Analytical Approach to Building a Technology Development Envelope (TDE) for Roadmapping of Emerging Technologies.” PhD Dissertation, Systems Science: Engineering and Technology Management, Portland, OR: Portland State University.
   Google Scholar
• Gerdsri, P. 2009. “A Systematic Approach to Developing National Technology Policy and Strategy for Emerging Technologies.” PhD Dissertation, Engineering and Technology Management (ETM) Department. Portland, OR: Portland State University.
   Google Scholar
• Ghanadan, R., and J. G. Koomey. 2005. “Using Energy Scenarios to Explore Alternative Energy Pathways in California.” Energy Policy 33: 1117–1142. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2003.11.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Go, P. 2006. “Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation, Government of Pakistan.” http://www.aedb.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Godet, M. 2000. “Forefront: How to be Rigorous with Scenario Planning.” Foresight 2: 5–9. doi: 10.1108/14636680010802438
   Google Scholar
• Goodier, C., S. Austin, R. Soetanto, and A. Dainty. 2010. “Causal Mapping and Scenario Building with Multiple Organisations.” Futures 42: 219–229. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gordon, T. J. 1994. “ Trend Impact Analysis.” Futures Research Methodology, The Millennium Project 1–19. Accessed March 15 2011. http://test.scripts.psu.edu/students/d/j/djz5014/nc2if/08-Trend%20Impact%20Analysis.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Groenveld, P. 2007. “Roadmapping Integrates Business and Technology.” Research-Technology Management 50: 49–58.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hossain, S., and L. Brooks. 2008. “Fuzzy Cognitive Map Modelling Educational Software Adoption.” Computers & Education 51: 1569–1588. doi: 10.1016/j.compedu.2008.03.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huss, W. R. 1988. “A Move toward Scenario Analysis.” International Journal of Forecasting 4: 377–388. doi: 10.1016/0169-2070(88)90105-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huss, W. R., and E. J. Honton. 1987a. “Alternative Methods for Developing Business Scenarios.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 31: 219–238. doi: 10.1016/0040-1625(87)90012-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huss, W. R., and E. J. Honton. 1987b. “Scenario Planning: What Style Should You Use?” Long Range Planning 20: 21–29. doi: 10.1016/0024-6301(87)90152-X
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hussler, C., P. Muller, and P. Rondé. 2011. “Is Diversity in Delphi Panelist Groups Useful? Evidence from a French Forecasting Exercise on the Future of Nuclear Energy.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78: 1642–1653. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Iskin, I., J. Callahan, M. Vowles, and R. Fedie. 2011. “Variable Capacity Heat Pump Program Development Roadmap.” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 1–12. Portland, OR.
   Google Scholar
• Iskin, I., T. Daim, G. Kayakutlu, and M. Altuntas. 2012. “Exploring Renewable Energy Pricing with Analytic Network Process: Comparing a Developed and a Developing Economy.” Energy Economics 34: 882–891. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jenkins, L. 1997. “Selecting a Variety of Futures for Scenario Development.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 55: 15–20. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(96)00117-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jetter, A. J. 2003. “Educating the Guess: Strategies, Concepts, and Tools for the Fuzzy Front End of Product Development.” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 261–273. Portland, OR.
   Google Scholar
• Jetter, A. J. 2006a. “Codification – Knowledge Maps.” In Knowledge Integration: The Practice of Knowledge Management in Small and Medium Enterprises, edited by A. J. Jetter, J. Kraaijenbrink, H.-H. Schroder, and F. Wijnhoven, 1st ed., 77–90. Heidelberg: Physica.
   Google Scholar
• Jetter, A. J. 2006b. “Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Engineering and Technology Management: What Works in Practice?” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 498–512. Istanbul, Turkey.
   Google Scholar
• Jetter, A., and W. Schweinfort. 2011. “Building Scenarios with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: An Exploratory Study of Solar Energy.” Futures 43: 52–66. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2010.05.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Joseph, C. F. 2000. “Scenario Planning.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65: 115–123. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00084-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kahn, H., and A. J. Wiener. 1967. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. New York: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Kajikawa, Y., J. Yoshikawa, Y. Takeda, and K. Matsushima. 2008. “Tracking Emerging Technologies in Energy Research: Toward a Roadmap for Sustainable Energy.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75: 771–782. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2007.05.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalashnikov, V., R. Gulidov, and A. Ognev. 2011. “Energy Sector of the Russian Far East: Current Status and Scenarios for the Future.” Energy Policy 39: 6760–6780. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.035
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kandasamy, W. B. V., and F. Smarandache. 2003. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Neutrosophic Cognitive Maps. Chennai, India: Indian Institute of Technology, Madras.
   Google Scholar
• Keles, D., D. Möst, and W. Fichtner. 2011. “The Development of the German Energy Market Until 2030: A Critical Survey of Selected Scenarios.” Energy Policy 39: 812–825. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.055
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keough, S. M., and K. J. Shanahan. 2008. “Scenario Planning: Toward a More Complete Model for Practice.” Advances in Developing Human Resources 10: 166–178. doi: 10.1177/1523422307313311
   Google Scholar
• Khattak, N., S. R. Hassnain, S. W. Shah, and A. Mutlib. 2006. “Identification and Removal of Barriers for Renewable Energy Technologies in Pakistan.” In International Conference on Emerging Technologies (ICET), 397–402.
   Google Scholar
• Kok, K., and H. van Delden. 2009. “Combining Two Approaches of Integrated Scenario Development to Combat Desertification in the Guadalentin Watershed, Spain.” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 36: 49–66. doi: 10.1068/b32137
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kosko, B. 1986. “Fuzzy Cognitive Maps.” International Journal of Man-Machine Studies 24: 65–75. doi: 10.1016/S0020-7373(86)80040-2
   Google Scholar
• Kosko, B. 1997. Fuzzy Engineering. New Jersey, NJ: Prentice Hall.
   Google Scholar
• Kostoff, R. N., R. Boylan, and G. R. Simons. 2004. “Disruptive Technology Roadmaps.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71: 141–159. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00048-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kostoff, R. N., and R. R. Schaller. 2001. “Science and Technology Roadmaps.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 48: 132–143. doi: 10.1109/17.922473
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krewitt, W., S. Simon, W. Graus, S. Teske, A. Zervos, and O. Schäfer. 2007. “The 2°C Scenario: A Sustainable World Energy Perspective.” Energy Policy 35: 4969–4980. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.04.034
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamb, A. M., T. U. Daim, and S. Leavengood. 2012. “Wood Pellet Technology Roadmap.” IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 3: 218–230. doi: 10.1109/TSTE.2011.2175755
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, S. K., G. Mogi, and J. W. Kim. 2009. “Energy Technology Roadmap for the Next 10 Years: The Case of Korea.” Energy Policy 37: 588–596. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.090
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Limanond, T., S. Jomnonkwao, and A. Srikaew. 2011. “Projection of Future Transport Energy Demand of Thailand.” Energy Policy 39: 2754–2763. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.045
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Madlener, R., K. Kowalski, and S. Stagl. 2007. “New Ways for the Integrated Appraisal of National Energy Scenarios: The Case of Renewable Energy Use in Austria.” Energy Policy 35: 6060–6074. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.08.015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Makkawi, A., Y. Tham, M. Asif, and T. Muneer. 2009. “Analysis and Inter-comparison of Energy Yield of Wind Turbines in Pakistan Using Detailed Hourly and Per Minute Recorded Data Sets.” Energy Conversion and Management 50: 2340–2350. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2009.05.017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Malaska, P., M. Malmivirta, T. Meristö, and S. O. Hansén. 1984. “Scenarios in Europe: Who Uses Them and Why?” Long Range Planning 17: 45–49. doi: 10.1016/0024-6301(84)90036-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martelli, A. 2001. “Scenario Building and Scenario Planning: State of the Art and Prospects of Evolution.” Futures Research Quarterly 17: 57–70.
   Google Scholar
• Mateou, N. H., and A. S. Andreou. 2008. “A Framework for Developing Intelligent Decision Support Systems Using Evolutionary Fuzzy Cognitive Maps.” Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems 19: 151–170.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McVicar, T. R., T. G. Van Niel, L. T. Li, M. L. Roderick, D. P. Rayner, L. Ricciardulli, and R. J. Donohue. 2008. “Wind Speed Climatology and Trends for Australia, 1975–2006: Capturing the Stilling Phenomenon and Comparison with Near-surface Reanalysis Output.” Geophysical Research Letters 35: 1–6. doi: 10.1029/2008GL035627
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meyer, M. A., and J. M. Booker. 1991. “Selecting and Motivating the Experts.” In Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide, 1st ed, 85–98. London: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Mietzner, D., and G. Reger. 2005. “Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight.” International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 1: 220–239. doi: 10.1504/IJTIP.2005.006516
   Google Scholar
• Miles, I., and M. Keenan. 2002. “Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the United Kingdom. Directorate-General for Research, European Commission.” Accessed March 14 2011. http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/cgrf.htm.
   Google Scholar
• Mirza, U. K., N. Ahmad, K. Harijan, and T. Majeed. 2009. “Identifying and Addressing Barriers to Renewable Energy Development in Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13: 927–931. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2007.11.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mirza, U. K., N. Ahmad, and T. Majeed. 2008. “An Overview of Biomass Energy Utilization in Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 12: 1988–1996. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2007.04.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mirza, U. K., N. Ahmad, T. Majeed, and K. Harijan. 2007. “Wind Energy Development in Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 11: 2179–2190. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2006.03.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mirza, I. A., N. A. Khan, and N. Memon. 2010. “Development of Benchmark Wind Speed for Gharo and Jhimpir, Pakistan.” Renewable Energy 35: 576–582. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2009.08.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mirza, U. K., M. M. Maroto-Valer, and N. Ahmad. 2003. “Status and Outlook of Solar Energy Use in Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 7: 501–514. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2003.06.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morales, J. M., R. Mínguez, and A. J. Conejo. 2010. “A Methodology to Generate Statistically Dependent Wind Speed Scenarios.” Applied Energy 87: 843–855. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.09.022
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mustonen, S. M. 2010. “Rural Energy Survey and Scenario Analysis of Village Energy Consumption: A Case Study in Lao People's Democratic Republic.” Energy Policy 38: 1040–1048. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.056
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phaal, R. 2004. “Technology Roadmapping - A Planning Framework for Evolution and Revolution.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71: 5–26. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00072-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., C. Farrukh, and D. Probert. 2001. “T-Plan the Fast-start to Technology Roadmapping: Planning Your Route to Success.” Cambridge: Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2005a. “Developing a Technology Roadmapping System.” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 99–111. Portland, OR.
   Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2005b. “Developing a Technology Roadmapping System.” Portland, OR, 99–111.
   Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2007. “Strategic Roadmapping: A Workshop-based Approach for Identifying and Exploring Strategic Issues and Opportunities.” Engineering Management Journal 19: 3–12. doi: 10.1080/10429247.2007.11431716
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. 2009. “Visualising Strategy: A Classification of Graphical Roadmap Forms.” International Journal of Technology Management 47: 286–305. doi: 10.1504/IJTM.2009.024431
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., and G. Muller. 2007. “Towards Visual Strategy an Architectural Framework for Roadmapping.” In Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 1584–1592. Portland, OR.
   Google Scholar
• Phaal, R., and G. Muller. 2009. “An Architectural Framework for Roadmapping: Towards Visual Strategy.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 76: 39–49. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.018
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pillkahn, U. 2008. Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development. Erlangen, Germany: Publicis Corporate.
   Google Scholar
• Porter, A. L., A. T. Roper, T. W. Mason, F. A. Rossini, and J. Banks. 1991. Forecasting and Management of Technology. 1st ed. New York: John Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Postma, T. J. B. M., and F. Liebl. 2005. “How to Improve Scenario Analysis as a Strategic Management Tool?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 161–173. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00152-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Probert, D. R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and R. Phaal. 2003. “Technology Roadmapping - Developing a Practical Approach for Linking Resources to Strategic Goals.” Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers - Part B: Journal of Engineering Manufacture 217: 1183–1195. doi: 10.1243/095440503322420115
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rigby, D., and B. Bilodeau. 2007. “Selecting Management Tools Wisely.” Harvard Business Review 85: 20–22.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rijail, K. 1999. “Renewable Energy Policy Options for Mountain Communities: Experiences from China, India, Nepal and Pakistan.” Renewable Energy 16: 1138–1142. doi: 10.1016/S0960-1481(98)00444-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ringland, G. 2006. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. 2nd ed. Chichester, UK: John Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Rodriguez-Repiso, L., R. Setchi, and J. L. Salmeron. 2007. “Modelling IT Projects Success with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps.” Expert Systems with Applications 32: 543–559. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2006.01.032
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Romesburg, C. 2004. Cluster Analysis for Researchers. Chapel Hill: North Carolina Lulu Press.
   Google Scholar
• Rowe, G., G. Wright, and F. Bolger. 1991. “Delphi: A Reevaluation of Research and Theory.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 39: 235–251. doi: 10.1016/0040-1625(91)90039-I
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sahir, M. H., and A. H. Qureshi. 2008. “Assessment of New and Renewable Energy Resources Potential and Identification of Barriers to Their Significant Utilization in Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 12: 290–298. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2006.07.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saritas, O., and J. Aylen. 2010. “Using Scenarios for Roadmapping: The Case of Clean Production.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77: 1061–1075. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.03.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saritas, O., and M. A. Oner. 2004. “Systemic Analysis of UK Foresight Results: Joint Application of Integrated Management Model and Roadmapping.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71: 27–65. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00067-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schoemaker, P. J. H. 1991. “When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration.” Journal of Forecasting 10: 549–564. doi: 10.1002/for.3980100602
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schoemaker, P. J. H. 1993. “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation.” Strategic Management Journal 14: 193–213. doi: 10.1002/smj.4250140304
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schoemaker, P. J. H., and C. A. J. M. van der Heijden. 1992. “Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell.” Strategy & Leadership 20: 41–46.
   Google Scholar
• Schroder, H.-H., and A. J. M. Jetter. 2003. “Integrating Market and Technological Knowledge in the Fuzzy Front End: An FCM-based Action Support System.” International Journal of Technology Management 26: 517–539. doi: 10.1504/IJTM.2003.003421
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sharif, A. M., and Z. Irani. 2006. “Exploring Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for IS Evaluation.” European Journal of Operational Research 173: 1175–1187. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.07.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sheikh, M. A. 2009. “Renewable Energy Resource Potential in Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13: 2696–2702. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2009.06.029
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sheikh, M. A. 2010. “Energy and Renewable Energy Scenario of Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14: 354–363. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.037
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Silberglitt, R., A. Hove, and P. Shulman. 2003. “Analysis of the US Energy Scenarios: Meta-Scenarios, Pathways, and Policy Implications.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70: 297–315. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00254-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sørensen, B., A. Hauge Petersen, C. Juhl, H. Ravn, C. Søndergren, P. Simonsen, K. Jørgensen, et al. 2004. “Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier: Scenarios for Future Use of Hydrogen in the Danish Energy System.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 29: 23–32. doi: 10.1016/S0360-3199(03)00049-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Strauss, J. D., and Radnor, M. 2004. “Roadmapping for Dynamic and Uncertain Environments.” Research Technology Management 47: 51–57.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stylios, C. D., and P. P. Groumpos. 2000. “Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in Modeling Supervisory Control Systems.” Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems 8: 83–98.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tuller, S. E. 2004. “Measured Wind Speed Trends on the West Coast of Canada.” International Journal of Climatology 24: 1359–1374. doi: 10.1002/joc.1073
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester: John Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Varho, V., and P. Tapio. 2005. “Wind Power in Finland up to the year 2025- ‘Soft’ Scenarios Based on Expert Views.” Energy Policy 33: 1930–1947. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2004.03.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Varum, C. A., and C. Melo. 2010. “Directions in Scenario Planning Literature a Review of the Past Decades.” Futures 42: 355–369. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van Vliet, M., K. Kok, and T. Veldkamp. 2010. “Linking Stakeholders and Modellers in Scenario Studies: The Use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a Communication and Learning Tool.” Futures 42: 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.08.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weisser, D. 2004. “Costing Electricity Supply Scenarios: A Case Study of Promoting Renewable Energy Technologies on Rodriguez, Mauritius.” Renewable Energy 29: 1319–1347. doi: 10.1016/S0960-1481(03)00252-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wietschel, M., U. Hasenauer, and A. de Groot. 2006. “Development of European Hydrogen Infrastructure Scenarios: CO2 Reduction Potential and Infrastructure Investment.” Energy Policy 34: 1284–1298. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.019
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilkinson, A. 2009. “Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory.” Journal of Futures Studies 13: 107–114.
   Google Scholar
• Wilson, I. H., W. R. George, and P. J. Solomon. 1978. “The Practice of Business.” Business Horizons 21: 65–73. doi: 10.1016/0007-6813(78)90071-X
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Winebrake, J. J. 2003. Alternate Energy Assessment and Implementation. Lilburn, GA: Fairmont Press.
   Google Scholar
• Winebrake, J. J. 2004. “Technology Roadmaps as a Tool for Energy Planning and Policy Decisions.” Energy Engineering: Journal of the Association of Energy Engineering 101: 20–36.
   Google Scholar
• Winebrake, J. J., and B. P. Creswick. 2003. “The Future of Hydrogen Fueling Systems for Transportation: An Application of Perspective-based Scenario Analysis Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70: 359–384. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00189-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhou, N., and J. Lin. 2008. “The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China.” Energy and Buildings 40: 2121–2127. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2008.06.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar