The scale boundary of urbanized population with peaking PM_2.5 concentration: a spatial panel econometric analysis of China’s prefecture-level and above cities

Abstract

In view of China’s rapid urbanization for decades and its environmental effects, this paper focused on the impact of urbanization on fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration, and estimated the definitive urbanized population whose PM_2.5 concentration reached the peak according to the comparison of classical static/dynamic spatial econometric models. The estimation results of 227 prefecture-level cities and municipalities directly under the central government covering the period 1998–2016 show that the spatial spillover effect is statistically significant, while the exogenous effect stands out in the dynamic spatial Durbin model. In terms of the relationship between urbanized population and PM_2.5 concentration, the cities themselves and the exogenous influences from other neighboring cities are U-shaped and inverted U-shaped with urbanized population at the inflection point that 3.77 million and 1.77 million, respectively. Moreover, the exogenous effects occupy the mainstream position, indicating that the PM_2.5 concentration of prefecture-level cities mostly comes from the input of surrounding cities. It is proven in this paper that a moderate scale of population urbanization is an important factor in haze control, which should be accompanied by joint governance and coordination of urban agglomeration.

Keywords:

• PM_2.5 concentration
• population urbanization
• spatial spillover effect
• SDM

Conflict of interest

No conflict of interest exits in the submission of this manuscript, and manuscript is approved by all authors for publication. I would like to declare on behalf of my coauthors that the work described was original research that has not been published previously, and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, in whole or in part.

Notes

1 http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions

2 The air quality standard is the “ambient air quality standard (GB3095-2012)” issued by the Ministry of Ecology and environment of the people’s Republic of China in 2012. According to its provisions, the air quality standard is no more than 35 μg/m³, and more than 75 μg/m³ is serious pollution.

3 https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2019-04-21/doc-ihvhiewr7464197.shtml

4 The data processing in this paper was mainly accomplished by Matlab and Stata. The author can provide the main program and the corresponding original data for those in need.