Economic effects of isolating Russia from international trade due to its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine

Figures & data

Table 1. Percentage variation (%) in total production by country.

Source: Own elaboration.

Table 2. Percentage variation (%) in the production of the most affected economic sectors and countries.

Country	Sector	Scenario 1		Country	Sector	Scenario 2
		Initial shock	Final shock			Initial shock	Final shock
ESP	Re-export & Re-import	−95.8	−184.8	RUS	Re-export & Re-import	−300.9	−288.0
SVK	Re-export & Re-import	−117.3	−147.0	ESP	Re-export & Re-import	−95.8	−185.2
RUS	Re-export & Re-import	−127.8	−113.4	SVK	Re-export & Re-import	−117.3	−147.2
RUS	Hotels and Restraurants	−77.5	−60.7	RUS	Mining and Quarrying	−78.4	−75.4
RUS	Mining and Quarrying	−59.1	−56.8	RUS	Hotels and Restraurants	−91.6	−71.9
RUS	Public Administration	−56.0	−48.5	RUS	Public Administration	−64.2	−54.5
HRV	Re-export & Re-import	−23.7	−31.5	HRV	Re-export & Re-import	−23.7	−31.2
BGR	Re-export & Re-import	−31.5	−28.6	RUS	Metal Products	−30.0	−30.4
LVA	Re-export & Re-import	−12.4	−21.1	BGR	Re-export & Re-import	−31.5	−28.3
LVA	Electrical and Machinery	−14.1	−20.6	LVA	Re-export & Re-import	−12.4	−21.1
LUX	Re-export & Re-import	−19.6	−20.0	LVA	Electrical and Machinery	−14.1	−20.6
LTU	Recycling	−16.2	−19.4	RUS	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−18.4	−20.2
LTU	Re-export & Re-import	−12.3	−16.7	LUX	Re-export & Re-import	−19.6	−19.7
LTU	Metal Products	−16.3	−16.1	LTU	Recycling	−16.2	−19.4
RUS	Metal Products	−15.2	−15.7	RUS	Electricity, Gas and Water	−16.6	−18.5
FIN	Fishing	−9.3	−15.4	RUS	Wood and Paper	−14.0	−17.7
LTU	Electrical and Machinery	−9.9	−15.0	LTU	Re-export & Re-import	−12.3	−16.7
RUS	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−12.6	−13.9	RUS	Transport	−11.2	−16.4
LVA	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−10.8	−12.9	LTU	Metal Products	−16.3	−16.1
RUS	Electricity, Gas and Water	−11.4	−12.7	FIN	Fishing	−9.3	−15.4
RUS	Transport	−8.2	−11.9	LTU	Electrical and Machinery	−9.9	−15.0
RUS	Wood and Paper	−9.3	−11.9	LVA	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−10.8	−12.9
LVA	Metal Products	−9.3	−11.2	RUS	Electrical and Machinery	−7.3	−12.2
FIN	Textiles and Wearing Apparel	−7.0	−11.0	LVA	Metal Products	−9.3	−11.2
SVN	Re-export & Re-import	−7.2	−10.3	FIN	Textiles and Wearing Apparel	−7.0	−11.0
LTU	Food & Beverages	−5.2	−9.8	RUS	Other Manufacturing	−6.4	−10.3
LTU	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−6.4	−9.7	RUS	Wholesale Trade	−5.8	−10.3
EST	Metal Products	−10.7	−9.2	RUS	Maintenance and Repair	−5.8	−10.3
LVA	Food & Beverages	−5.9	−9.1	RUS	Retail Trade	−5.8	−10.3
LTU	Agriculture	−4.6	−8.7	SVN	Re-export & Re-import	−7.2	−10.3
RUS	Electrical and Machinery	−5.2	−8.6	LTU	Food & Beverages	−5.2	−9.8
HUN	Recycling	−6.8	−8.6	LTU	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−6.4	−9.7
EST	Re-export & Re-import	−6.4	−8.6	RUS	Finacial Intermediation and Business Activities	−5.0	−9.3
EST	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−7.4	−8.3	EST	Metal Products	−10.7	−9.2
POL	Re-export & Re-import	−5.4	−8.1	LVA	Food & Beverages	−5.9	−9.1
LVA	Fishing	−5.4	−7.9	RUS	Textiles and Wearing Apparel	−5.0	−8.7
LTU	Wholesale Trade	−4.7	−7.5	LTU	Agriculture	−4.6	−8.7
LTU	Other Manufacturing	−4.5	−7.3	HUN	Recycling	−6.8	−8.6
RUS	Wholesale Trade	−4.0	−7.1	EST	Re-export & Re-import	−6.4	−8.6
RUS	Maintenance and Repair	−4.0	−7.1	RUS	Recycling	−4.7	−8.3
RUS	Retail Trade	−4.0	−7.1	EST	Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products	−7.4	−8.3
EST	Food & Beverages	−3.9	−7.0	POL	Re-export & Re-import	−5.4	−8.1
SWE	Retail Trade	−4.0	−6.8	LVA	Fishing	−5.4	−7.9
RUS	Finacial Intermediation and Business Activities	−3.6	−6.8	LTU	Wholesale Trade	−4.7	−7.5
RUS	Other Manufacturing	−4.2	−6.8	LTU	Other Manufacturing	−4.5	−7.3

Source: Own elaboration.

Table A1. Acronyms of the countries.

Acronym	Country	Acronym	Country	Acronym	Country	Acronym	Country	Acronym	Country
AFG	Afghanistan	CHL	Chile	HUN	Hungary	MAR	Morocco	SVK	Slovakia
ALB	Albania	CHN	China	ISL	Iceland	MOZ	Mozambique	SVN	Slovenia
DZA	Algeria	COL	Colombia	IND	India	MMR	Myanmar	SOM	Somalia
AND	Andorra	COG	Congo	IDN	Indonesia	NAM	Namibia	ZAF	South Africa
AGO	Angola	CRI	Costa Rica	IRN	Iran	NPL	Nepal	SDS	South Sudan
ATG	Antigua	HRV	Croatia	IRQ	Iraq	NLD	Netherlands	ESP	Spain
ARG	Argentina	CUB	Cuba	IRL	Ireland	ANT	Netherlands Antilles	LKA	Sri Lanka
ARM	Armenia	CYP	Cyprus	ISR	Israel	NCL	New Caledonia	SUD	Sudan
ABW	Aruba	CZE	Czech Republic	ITA	Italy	NZL	New Zealand	SUR	Suriname
AUS	Australia	CIV	Cote dIvoire	JAM	Jamaica	NIC	Nicaragua	SWZ	Swaziland
AUT	Austria	PRK	North Korea	JPN	Japan	NER	Niger	SWE	Sweden
AZE	Azerbaijan	COD	DR Congo	JOR	Jordan	NGA	Nigeria	CHE	Switzerland
BHS	Bahamas	DNK	Denmark	KAZ	Kazakhstan	NOR	Norway	SYR	Syria
BHR	Bahrain	DJI	Djibouti	KEN	Kenya	PSE	Gaza Strip	TWN	Taiwan
BGD	Bangladesh	DOM	Dominican Republic	KWT	Kuwait	OMN	Oman	TJK	Tajikistan
BRB	Barbados	ECU	Ecuador	KGZ	Kyrgyzstan	PAK	Pakistan	THA	Thailand
BLR	Belarus	EGY	Egypt	LAO	Laos	PAN	Panama	MKD	TFYR Macedonia
BEL	Belgium	SLV	El Salvador	LVA	Latvia	PNG	Papua New Guinea	TGO	Togo
BLZ	Belize	ERI	Eritrea	LBN	Lebanon	PRY	Paraguay	TTO	Trinidad and Tobago
BEN	Benin	EST	Estonia	LSO	Lesotho	PER	Peru	TUN	Tunisia
BMU	Bermuda	ETH	Ethiopia	LBR	Liberia	PHL	Philippines	TUR	Turkey
BTN	Bhutan	FJI	Fiji	LBY	Libya	POL	Poland	TKM	Turkmenistan
BOL	Bolivia	FIN	Finland	LIE	Liechtenstein	PRT	Portugal	USR	Former USSR
BIH	Bosnia and Herzegovina	FRA	France	LTU	Lithuania	QAT	Qatar	UGA	Uganda
BWA	Botswana	PYF	French Polynesia	LUX	Luxembourg	KOR	South Korea	UKR	Ukraine
BRA	Brazil	GAB	Gabon	MAC	Macao SAR	MDA	Moldova	ARE	United Arab Emirates
VGB	British Virgin Islands	GMB	Gambia	MDG	Madagascar	ROU	Romania	GBR	UK
BRN	Brunei	GEO	Georgia	MWI	Malawi	RUS	Russia	TZA	Tanzania
BGR	Bulgaria	DEU	Germany	MYS	Malaysia	RWA	Rwanda	USA	USA
BFA	Burkina Faso	GHA	Ghana	MDV	Maldives	WSM	Samoa	URY	Uruguay
BDI	Burundi	GRC	Greece	MLI	Mali	SMR	San Marino	UZB	Uzbekistan
KHM	Cambodia	GRL	Greenland	MLT	Malta	STP	Sao Tome and Principe	VUT	Vanuatu
CMR	Cameroon	GTM	Guatemala	MRT	Mauritania	SAU	Saudi Arabia	VEN	Venezuela
CAN	Canada	GIN	Guinea	MUS	Mauritius	SEN	Senegal	VNM	Vietnam
CPV	Cape Verde	GUY	Guyana	MEX	Mexico	SRB	Serbia	YEM	Yemen
CYM	Cayman Islands	HTI	Haiti	MCO	Monaco	SYC	Seychelles	ZMB	Zambia
CAF	Central African Republic	HND	Honduras	MNG	Mongolia	SLE	Sierra Leone	ZWE	Zimbabwe
TCD	Chad	HKG	Hong Kong	MNE	Montenegro	SGP	Singapore

Source: The Eora Global Supply Chain Database.