What can European security architecture look like in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine?

Figures & data

Table 1. Drivers and architecture scenarios.

Drivers and War Outcome/Architecture	Unstable Balance Model	Stable Balance Model (Positive)	Stable Balance Model (Negative)	Concert
Russia’s policy against Ukraine	Status quo, negative perception of Ukraine’s sovereignty; harsh anti-Ukrainian policy in the occupied territories. No binding of the rest of Ukraine to the “Russian World”	Anti-Ukrainian policy limited by the lack of resources and other restraints. Less territories under occupation (or complete liberation); no binding of Ukraine to the “Russian World”	Anti-Ukrainian policy was boosted by Russia’s military success and the West's resignation. More opportunities for implementation of anti-Ukrainian policy. Binding large parts of Ukraine to the “Russian world”	Negative but constrained by strategic failure in Ukraine. Less opportunities for implementation of the anti-Ukrainian policy. No binding of Ukraine to the “Russian World”
Russia State’s Geopolitics (Russia in the world)	Status quo – anti-Western, neo-imperial, revisionist and revanchist geopolitical ambitions of the current regime	Political defeat of the vision of the restoration of the Russian empire. Restraints on Russian geopolitical ambitions	Continuation of the advance against Ukraine ‘rump,’ and other states or NATO members. More aggressive geopolitical ambitions boosted by Ukraine’s defeat	Radical shift caused by China’s hostile actions and strategic failure in Ukraine. Dramatic change in strategic culture, restraints on revanchist ambitions
Domestic Situation and Regime Change in Russia	Status quo – no profound political changes, no serious opposition to the regime and unlikely perspective of regime change. Elite fragmentation or a palace coup highly unlikely	(Partial) political destabilisation, weakening of Putin's regime. Regime change more likely; Variation – from more revanchist and paranoid regime to state implosion	Reinforcement of the nationalist and imperialist hardliners within the Russian establishment. Regime change highly unlikely.	Dissatisfaction with Russia's failure and general situation. Regime change more likely. Variation – from more revanchist and paranoid regime to state implosion
Economic Sanctions and Energy Exports (Russia’s resources for war)	Russian economy is weakened but still able to produce large quantities of weapons and sell energy resources for reasonable price to China and India, despite the decline of revenues for energy exports	Russian economy is seriously weakened; shortage of weapons and ammunition to continue with large-scale war; degrading Russia’s military capacity. Pressure for discounts on energy exports in the Asian markets	Russian economy is weakened but still able to produce large quantities of weapons; selling energy resources for reasonable price to China and India, despite the decline of revenues for energy exports	Russian economy is weakened by shortages, struggles to continue to source large-scale war; degrading Russia’s military capacity. Pressure for discounts on energy exports in the Asian markets
Positions of Key Atlantic Actors	Status quo – commitment to Ukraine; consensus on decisive support for Ukraine but vulnerability to election cycles and public opinions	Strong commitment to Ukraine, more sanctions against Russia and high internal cohesion among the main security actors; coherent support by the EU and NATO	“Ukraine fatigue,” American isolationism and European appeasement forcing Ukraine to unfavourable peace treaty. Decrease of Western assistance to Ukraine	Strong commitment to Ukraine; key role of the EU, consultative mechanisms with inclusion of in-between states; cohesion among the main security actors
Alternative Outcomes of War
Outcome of the war in Ukraine	Stalemate and position warfare with artillery barrages, UAV strikes and occasional small offensives	Russia’s strategic failure – loss of currently occupied territories, possibly even Donbas and Crimea	Russia’s strategic success – military conquest of new Ukrainian territories and cities, such as Zaporizhzhiya, Odesa, Dnipro, and Mykolaiv	Russia’s strategic failure – loss of currently occupied territories, possibly even Donbas and Crimea