Meta-analysis of the climate change-tourism demand relationship

Figures & data

Figure 1. Conceptual framework.

Figure 2. PRISMA process of literature search and screening.

Table 1. Variable explanations.

Hypotheses	Categorical Variables	Definitions (0 = otherwise)
H1 Climate Zone
	Tropical	1 = Tropical climate (Af; Am; Aw)
	Arid	1 = Arid steppe climate (Bsh; Bsk)
	Temperate	1 = Temperate climate (Cfa; Cwa; Csa; Cfb)
	Subtropical	1 = Humid subtropical climate (Cfa; Cwa)
	Mediterranean	1 = Mediterranean climate (Csa)
	Marine west coast	1 = Marine west coast climate (Cfb)
	Continental	1 = Continental climate (Dfa; Dfb; Dwa)
	Not specified	1 = No identical climate types
H2 Destination type
	Mountain	1 = Destination dominated by mountain tourism
	Coast	1 = Destination dominated by coastal tourism
H3 Warming indicator
	Temperature	1 = Temperature in degree celsius
	Precipitation	1 = Precipitation in millimetres
	Sunshine duration	1 = Sunshine duration in hours
	Relative humidity	1 = Relative humidity in a percentage
H4 Visitor segment
	Domestic	1 = Domestic tourism demand
	Internal	1 = Both domestic and international tourism demand
	International	1 = International tourism demand
H5 Demand indicator
	Number of tourists	1 = Demand measured by visitor numbers
	Number of overnight stays	1 = Demand measured by visitor nights
H6 Spatial substitution
	National	1 = National data
	Sub-national	1 = Region/city/attraction data
H7 Seasonality
	Inter-annual	1 = Yearly data
	Intra-annual	1 = Monthly/quarterly data
H8 Time trend
	Before 1980	1 = Study includes data prior to 1980
	After 1980	1 = Study includes data from 1980 onwards

The classification of climate zones is based on the Köppen climate classification system (Arnfield, 2023), with multiple climate codes for each climate zone.

Table 2. Pooled and grouped global warming elasticity.

Hypotheses	Variables	(I) Pooled effect size		Subgroup heterogeneity	(II) Tourists		Subgroup heterogeneity	(III) Overnight stays		Subgroup heterogeneity
		Counts	Elasticity	p Value	Counts	Elasticity	p Value	Counts	Elasticity	p Value
H1 Climate Zone				.001			.002			.369
	Tropical	39	−0.22 ·		39	−0.22*		N	N
	Arid	25	−0.12		25	−0.12		N	N
	Temperate	183	0.02		82	−0.08		101	0.09**
	Subtropical	60	0.13**		60	0.13**		N	N
	Mediterranean	46	−0.26*		18	−0.69*		28	0.02
	Marine west coast	77	0.11**		–	–		73	0.12***
	Continental	35	0.14**		23	0.16		12	0.06**
H2 Destination type				.437			.954			.071
	Mountain	43	−0.13		27	−0.18		16	0.02*
	Coast	85	0.04		65	−0.06		20	0.29*
H3 Visitor segment				.152			.163			.488
	International	147	−0.04		106	−0.08		41	0.04
	Domestic	68	−0.07		22	−0.41		46	0.05***
	Internal	75	0.11		49	0.06		28	0.19
H4 Demand indicator				.006
	Tourists	177	−0.01·
	Overnight stays	113	0.09***
H5 Spatial substitution				.068			.111			.842
	National	71	0.07·		71	0.04		32	0.07***
	Sub-national	219	−0.04		219	−0.13 ·		81	0.08*
H6 Seasonality				.097			.239			.288
	Inter-annual	67	−0.18·		67	−0.25		20	0.00
	Intra-annual	34	0.05		34	−0.01		93	0.11***
H7 Time trend				.1			.383			.299
	Before 1980	103	0.05*		103	−0.01		78	0.05***
	After 1980	187	−0.05		182	0.01		35	0.15
Overall		290	−0.013 [–0.08, 0.06]		177	−0.09		113	0.09**

We omitted observations with fewer than 10 and replaced them with ‘–’.

p < .1^·, .05 *, .01 **, .001 ***.

Figure 3. Violin plot of global warming elasticity by climate types².

Figure 4. Split violin plots of global warming elasticity of demand for mountains and tourism by climate zone.

Figure 5. Global forecast of tourism demand to 2050.

Figure 6. Three benefit-harm spectrums.

Arnfield, A. J. (2023). Köppen climate classification. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/science/Koppen-climate-classification.

 Google Scholar