Overclaiming. An international investigation using PISA data

Figures & data

Table 1. The association between demographic characteristics and average scores on the overclaiming scale.

	Girls	Boys	Gap (effect size)	SE
(a) Gender
England	−0.07	0.24	.30**	0.03
Scotland	−0.36	−0.07	.28**	0.04
New Zealand	−0.09	0.18	.27**	0.03
Canada	0.04	0.31	.27**	0.03
Australia	−0.09	0.17	.26**	0.02
Wales	−0.16	0.11	.26**	0.05
Ireland	−0.32	−0.08	.24**	0.03
USA	0.11	0.32	.21**	0.04
Northern Ireland	−0.21	−0.02	.19**	0.04
	Low SES	Q2	Q3	High SES	Gap (effect size)	SE
(b) Socio-economic status
New Zealand	−0.06	0.02	.06	0.24	0.29**	0.06
Scotland	−0.34	−0.21	−.16	−0.08	0.26**	0.07
Wales	−0.14	0	−.01	0.08	0.22**	0.06
Australia	−0.02	−0.03	.05	0.16	0.18**	0.03
USA	0.13	0.23	.2	0.3	0.17**	0.05
England	0.03	0.01	.09	0.18	0.16**	0.05
Canada	0.11	0.11	.14	0.26	0.16**	0.03
Northern Ireland	−0.19	−0.14	−.11	−0.03	0.16*	0.06
Ireland	−0.26	−0.17	−.22	−0.12	0.14**	0.05
		Native-born	Immigrants	Gap (effect size)		SE
(c) Immigrant group
Northern Ireland		−0.14	0.27	.40*		0.17
New Zealand		−0.03	0.25	.28**		0.06
Ireland		−0.23	0.03	.25**		0.07
England		0.05	0.27	.23**		0.06
Scotland		−0.23	−0.05	.18*		0.09
Canada		0.13	0.26	.14**		0.03
Australia		0.01	0.13	.12**		0.03
Wales		−0.01	0.21	.25		0.13
USA		0.21	0.22	.01		0.05

The overclaiming scale has been standardised within each country to mean zero and standard deviation one. The gap refers to the difference between groups in terms of an effect size. SE refers to the standard error of the gap. Northern Ireland excluded from socio-economic status results due to factor scores not able to be calculated. * indicates statistical significance at p = 0.05; ** indicates statistical significance at p = 0.006 after a Bonferroni correction has been made. Data source: OECD (2014).

Table 2. International comparison of average overclaiming scores across Anglophone countries.

Country				Mean			Standard error
(a) Average overclaiming scale scores across
USA				0.22			0.024
Canada				0.17			0.013
England				0.08			0.020
Australia				0.04			0.011
New Zealand				0.04			0.022
Wales				−0.03			0.028
Northern Ireland				−0.11			0.028
Ireland				−0.20			0.019
Scotland				−0.21			0.024
(b) T-statistics for pairwise country comparisons

Average overclaiming scale scores have been standardised to mean zero and standard deviation one across the eight Anglophone countries. Wales has been excluded based upon measurement invariance tests. Light green shaded cells in panel b indicate where difference across countries is statistically significant at p = 0.05 (absolute value of the t-statistic is greater than 1.96). Dark green shading in panel b indicates where difference across countries is statistically significant after a Bonferroni correction has been made for eight comparisons being made for each country at p = 0.006 (absolute value of the t-statistic is greater than 2.735). Red shaded cells with italic font illustrates where cross-country differences are not statistically significant at p = 0.05 (absolute value of the t-statistic is less than 1.96). Data source: OECD (2014).

Table 3. The link between overclaiming and self-efficacy.

	Unconditional			Regression results
	Low levels of overclaiming	High levels of overclaiming	Difference	Difference	SE
Self-efficacy
Believe can could complete Task 1	78%	8%	10%	6.9%*	1.1%
Believe can could complete Task 2	72%	85%	14%	9.0%*	1.1%
Believe can could complete Task 3	57%	79%	22%	14.3%*	1.0%
Believe can could complete Task 4	78%	90%	12%	8.9%*	1.0%
Believe can could complete Task 5	78%	90%	11%	5.6%*	1.0%
Believe can could complete Task 6	37%	66%	19%	17.9%*	1.4%
Believe can could complete Task 7	62%	80%	18%	10.5%*	1.2%
Believe can could complete Task 8	40%	67%	18%	17.7%*	1.4%
Scale score (standardised)	−0.34	0.34	0.68	0.42*	0.03
Views of problem-solving ability
Can handle a lot of information	75%	89%	14%	10.3%*	1.2%
Quick to understand things	78%	90%	12%	9.2%*	1.0%
Seek explanations for things	85%	91%	6%	3.8%*	0.9%
Easily link facts together	79%	91%	12%	8.5%*	1.0%
Like to solve complex problems	50%	76%	26%	19.2%*	1.3%
Scale score (standardised)	−0.27	0.27	0.55	0.37*	0.03

Figures refer to percent of young people who agree or strongly agree. Low levels of overclaiming refers to young people in the bottom quarter of the overclaiming scale score distribution. High levels of overclaiming are defined as the top quartile. Regression estimates refers to the difference between low and high overclaiming groups controlling for gender, socio-economic status, immigrant status, PISA reading, maths and science scores and school fixed effects. The ‘scale score’ row refers to results based upon continuous index combining data across all items. This has been standardised to mean 0 and standard deviation 1, and can therefore be interpreted in terms of an effect size. * indicates that the difference between the low and high overclaiming groups is statistically significant at p = 0.05. A full list of the self-efficacy tasks can be found in section 2. Data source: OECD (2014).

Table 4. The link between overclaiming and perseverance.

	Unconditional (% agree)			Regression results
	Low levels of overclaiming	High levels of overclaiming	Difference	Difference	SE
When confronted with a problem, I give up easily	47%	29%	−18%	−12.9%*	1.5%
I put off difficult problem	64%	45%	−18%	−15.0%*	1.7%
I remain interested in the tasks that I start	79%	88%	9%	7.1%*	1.0%
I continue working on tasks until everything is perfect.	72%	84%	11%	9.8%*	1.3%
When confronted with a problem, I do more than what is expected of me	63%	80%	18%	13.9%*	1.3%
Scale score (standardised)	−0.24	0.28	0.52	0.40	0.03

See notes to Table 3. * indicates statistically significant difference between the low and high overclaiming groups at p = 0.05. Data source: OECD (2014).

Table 5. The link between overclaiming and problem solving.

	Unconditional (% agree)			Regression results
	Low levels of overclaiming	High levels of overclaiming	Difference	Difference	SE
Task 1.
I press every button possible to find out what is wrong	56%	49%	−7%	−3.7%*	1.4%
I think about what might have caused the problem and what I can do to solve it	85%	90%	6%	4.1%*	0.9%
I read the manual	30%	41%	12%	10.0%*	1.4%
I ask a friend for help	78%	75%	−4%	−1.0%	1.3%
Task 2.
I read the zoo brochure to see if it says how to get there	75%	74%	−1%	0.9%	1.2%
I study a map and work out the best route	57%	70%	13%	8.9%*	1.4%
I leave it to my brother to worry about how to get there	34%	27%	−7%	−5.8%*	1.4%
I know roughly where it is, so I suggest we just start driving	62%	59%	−4%	−1.3%	1.3%

See notes to Table 3. In task 1, participants were asked ‘Suppose that you have been sending text messages from your mobile phone for several weeks. Today, however, you can’t send text messages. You want to try to solve the problem. Which of the following would you do?’ In task 2, participants were asked ‘Suppose that you are planning a trip to the zoo with your brother. You don’t know which route to take to get there. Which of the following would you do?’ Figures refer to the percent of young people who said they would either ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ use this problem solving strategy. * indicates statistically significant difference between low and high levels of overclaiming group at p = 0.05. Data source: OECD (2014).

Table 6. The link between overclaiming and self-perceived popularity at school.

	Unconditional (% agree)			Regression results
	Low levels of overclaiming	High levels of overclaiming	Difference	Difference	SE
Left out of things at school	14%	13%	−1%	−2.0%	1.1%
Make friends easily at school	85%	89%	5%	4.4%*	1.1%
Feel like I belong at school.	74%	81%	8%	6.9%*	1.5%
Feel awkward/out of place in my school	15%	15%	0%	0.3%	1.1%
Other students seem to like me	91%	93%	2%	2.1%*	0.7%
feel lonely at school.	10%	10%	0%	−0.7%	1.0%
feel happy at school.	78%	85%	5%	6.9%*	1.3%
Things are ideal in my school.	65%	74%	9%	9.5%*	1.5%
I am satisfied with my school.	76%	83%	8%	8.2%*	1.2%
Scale score (standardised)	−0.13	0.08	0.21	0.20*	0.03

See notes to Table 3. * indicates statistically significant difference between the low and high overclaiming groups at p = 0.05. Data source: OECD (2014).

Table 7. The association between overclaiming, young people’s test motivation and truancy from school.

	Average		Standard error
(a) Test motivation
Bottom quartile	7.52		0.03
Second quartile	7.70		0.02
Third quartile	7.65		0.03
Top quartile	7.63		0.03
Truancy from school
	Overclaiming index
	Bottom quartile	Second quartile	Third quartile	Top quartile
(b) Truancy from school
None	78%	81%	80%	80%
One or two times	17%	15%	17%	16%
Three or four times	3%	2%	2%	2%
Five or more times	1%	1%	1%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%

Notes: Figures in panel (a) refer to the average amount of effort children say that they put into the PISA test out of 10. Panel (b) provides column percentages; it refers to the number of times young people said that they skipped school for a whole day over the last two weeks. Data source: OECD (2014).

Table A1. The distribution of responses to the mathematics constructs (row percentages).

Constructs	Never heard of it	Heard of it once or twice	Heard of it a few times	Heard of it often	Know it well – understand the concept
Exponential function	45%	16%	16%	12%	11%
Divisor	30%	20%	18%	15%	18%
Quadratic function	21%	13%	17%	21%	28%
Proper number	16%	17%	22%	23%	22%
Linear equation	11%	9%	13%	24%	42%
Vectors	36%	18%	18%	14%	13%
Complex number	22%	21%	23%	19%	15%
Rational number	17%	16%	20%	22%	25%
Radicals	31%	20%	19%	15%	15%
Subjunctive scaling	64%	16%	11%	6%	3%
Polygon	13%	9%	13%	20%	44%
Declarative fraction	59%	18%	13%	7%	4%
Congruent figure	37%	15%	14%	13%	21%
Cosine	36%	8%	8%	13%	34%
Arithmetic mean	42%	15%	13%	12%	18%
Probability	5%	5%	8%	19%	62%

Figures refer to row percentages such that each row sums to 100.

Table A2. Responses to the fake item “proper number” by quartiles of the overclaiming index (column percentages).

	Bottom overclaiming quartile	Quartile 2	Quartile 3	Top overclaiming quartile
Never heard of it	59%	0%	12%	3%
Heard of it once or twice	41%	0%	22%	6%
Heard of it a few times	0%	40%	27%	21%
Heard of it often	0%	32%	25%	31%
Know it well – understand the concept	0%	28%	14%	40%

Table A3. Responses to the fake item ‘declarative fraction’ by quartiles of the overclaiming index (column percentages).

	Bottom overclaiming quartile	Quartile 2	Quartile 3	Top overclaiming quartile
Never heard of it	100%	100%	27%	3%
Heard of it once or twice	0%	0%	58%	17%
Heard of it a few times	0%	0%	14%	39%
Heard of it often	0%	0%	1%	27%
Know it well – understand the concept	0%	0%	0%	15%

Table A4. Responses to the fake item “subjunctive scaling” by quartiles of the overclaiming index (column percentages).

	Bottom overclaiming quartile	Quartile 2	Quartile 3	Top overclaiming quartile
Never heard of it	100%	100%	49%	7%
Heard of it once or twice	0%	0%	43%	23%
Heard of it a few times	0%	0%	6%	38%
Heard of it often	0%	0%	1%	22%
Know it well – understand the concept	0%	0%	0%	10%

OECD. (2014). PISA 2012 technical report. https://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/PISA-2012-technical-report-final.pdf

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