Future year (2028) source apportionment modeling to support Regional Haze Rule planning in the western U.S.

Figures & data

Figure 1. Camx nested 12 km and 36 km model domains, and the 13 WRAP states that were evaluated in the low-level source apportionment. Other source regions include the non-WRAP states, Canada, Mexico, and U.S. And non-U.S. commercial marine vehicles.

Figure 2. (a) Total 2028 anthropogenic SO2 emissions from the 13 contiguous WRAP region states, and (b) individual WRAP region state contributions.

Figure 3. (a) Total 2028 anthropogenic NOx emissions from the 13 contiguous WRAP region states, and (b) individual WRAP region state contributions.

Figure 4. Class 1 areas within the CAMx 12 km model domain, and the eight example sites of Olympic National Park (‘OLYM’), Yellowstone National Park (‘YELL’), Lostwood National Wildlife Refuge (‘LOST’), Rocky Mountain National Park (‘ROMO’), Salt Creek Wilderness Area (‘SACR’), Jarbidge Wilderness Area (‘JARB’), Grand Canyon National Park (‘GRCA’), and San Rafael Wilderness Area (‘RAFA’).

Figure 5. Olympic National Park (‘OLYM’; Washington) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 6. Yellowstone National Park (‘YELL’; Wyoming) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 7. Lostwood National Wildlife Refuge (‘LOST’; North Dakota) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 8. Rocky Mountain National Park (‘ROMO’; Colorado) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 9. Salt Creek Wilderness Area (‘SACR’; New Mexico) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 10. Jarbidge Wilderness Area (‘JABR’; Nevada) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 11. Grand Canyon National Park (‘GRCA’; Arizona) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Figure 12. San Rafael Wilderness Area (‘RAFA’; California) high-level source apportionment results (a) and low-level source apportionment results for (b) AmmSO4 and (c) AmmNO3 from anthropogenic sources.

Table 1. Estimated SO2 and NOx emissions (ton/yr) from oil and gas activity for North Dakota, New Mexico, and Colorado from the representative baseline (2014–2018, ‘RepBase2’) and future (2028, ‘2028otba2’) inventories.

	RepBase2	2028OTBa2	RepBase2	2028OTBa2
	SO2	SO2	NOx	NOx
	(ton/yr)	(ton/yr)	(ton/yr)	(ton/yr)
North Dakota
Oil and Gas – Point	5,814	5,814	5,179	5,179
Oil and Gas – Non-point	9,391	15,203	62,190	57,269
Total	15,205	21,017	67,369	62,448
Difference		5,812		-4,921
New Mexico
Oil and Gas – Point	8,641	11,937	31,244	43,652
Oil and Gas – Non-point	14,484	18,734	50,064	50,093
Total	23,125	30,671	81,308	93,745
Difference		7,546		12,437
Colorado
Oil and Gas – Point	514	478	17,226	14,677
Oil and Gas – Non-point	22	24	26,987	29,062
Total	536	502	44,213	43,739
Difference		−34		−474

Figure 13. Example high level source apportionment results using (a) the 20% Most Impaired Days (‘MID’) and (b) the 20% Modeled Most Impaired Days (‘ModMID’) at San Rafael Wilderness Area (‘RAFA’).

Table 2. Summary of the high-level source apportionment results by emission categories for the eight example CIAs.

	U.S. Anthro		Int’l Anthro		Natural		U.S. Wildfire		U.S. Prescribed Fire		Can Mex Fire		Total
	(Mm-1)	(%)	(Mm-1)	(%)	(Mm-1)	(%)	(Mm-1)	(%)	(Mm-1)	(%)	(Mm-1)	(%)	(Mm-1)
OLYM	9.80	28.3%	6.72	19.4%	10.49	30.3%	6.90	19.9%	0.22	0.6%	0.50	1.4%	34.63
YELL	2.25	21.5%	2.31	22.1%	3.95	37.7%	1.41	13.5%	0.40	3.8%	0.15	1.4%	10.47
LOST	10.22	41.8%	9.64	39.4%	3.94	16.1%	0.09	0.4%	0.36	1.5%	0.20	0.8%	24.45
ROMO	4.35	44.4%	2.36	24.1%	2.52	25.7%	0.35	3.6%	0.18	1.8%	0.04	0.4%	9.80
SACR	18.71	57.7%	7.25	22.4%	5.27	16.3%	0.27	0.8%	0.82	2.5%	0.08	0.2%	32.40
JARB	1.13	17.3%	2.82	43.3%	2.18	33.4%	0.15	2.3%	0.23	3.5%	0.01	0.2%	6.52
GRCA	2.20	22.6%	2.39	24.5%	3.03	31.1%	1.50	15.4%	0.58	6.0%	0.04	0.4%	9.74
RAFA	6.16	36.9%	2.83	17.0%	5.83	35.0%	1.66	10.0%	0.18	1.1%	0.02	0.1%	16.68

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at the Western Regional Air Partnership’s Technical Support System (WRAP TSS):

http://views.cira.colostate.edu/tssv2/Express/ModelingTools.aspx

http://views.cira.colostate.edu/tssv2/Express/EmissionsTools.aspx