Let the people decide? Support for referenda since the New Zealand flag change referendums

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for the demographic variables by year.

		2015	2016
		M (SD) or % (n)	M (SD) or % (n)
Age	18–30	19.5% (176)	19.3% (260)
	31–45	23.8% (215)	24.2% (326)
	46–60	29.5% (266)	28.1% (379)
	61–75	19.3% (174)	20.0% (269)
	76+	7.9% (71)	8.4% (113)
Gender	Woman	52.1% (469)	52.5% (707)
Ethnicity	Māori	14.5% (131)	13.9% (185)
	NZ European	80.8% (728)	81.0% (1076)
	Pasifika	4.6% (41)	3.1% (41)
	Asian	9.1% (82)	8.4% (111)
Household Income	<$50,001	32.0% (237)	29.3% (328)
	$50,001–$100,001	34.3% (254)	31.7% (355)
	>$100,001	33.6% (249)	39.1% (438)
Highest Qualification	Secondary School	40.5% (359)	40.3% (534)
	Trade or Diploma	29.7% (263)	29.2% (386)
	University	29.9% (265)	30.5% (404)
2014 Party Vote	Did not vote	6.4% (53)	8.0% (101)
	National	46.1% (401)	46.3% (582)
	Labour	22.5% (196)	24.7% (310)
	Green	10.0% (87)	9.9% (124)
	NZ First	6.6% (57)	6.9% (87)
Left-right Scale	(0 left – 10 right)	5.3 (2.2)	5.2 (2.1)
Political Interest	(1 low – 4 high)	2.6 (0.8)	2.7 (0.8)***
Political Efficacy	(1 low – 5 high)	3.2 (1.2)	3.3 (1.1)**
Support Changing the Flag		40.0% (344)	35.5% (469)*

Note: Sample weighting is applied; participants could select multiple ethnic groups; t-tests and chi-square tests were used to test for significant differences across year.

* p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001.

Figure 1. Support for referenda by year.

Figure 2. The proportion of participants who supported referenda by year and age group.

Figure 3. The proportion of participants who supported referenda by year and education level.

Table A1. Logistic regression models predicting support for referenda by variable x year interaction.

		2015 Support for referendums	2016 Support for referendums	Regression results for variable x year
		% (N) or M (SD)	% (N) or M (SD)	b	SE	Wald	p
Age	18–30	45.8% (70)	69.0% (171)
	31–45	48.4% (93)	66.9% (208)	−.211	.284	.554	.457
	46–60	59.0% (244)	74.0% (271)	−.292	.277	1.116	.291
	61–75	60.2% (100)	74.3% (191)	−.329	.301	1.195	.274
	76+	61.2% (67)	66.0% (70)	−.770	.387	3.969	.046
Gender	Women	54.2% (228)	71.0% (474)
	Men	55.0% (220)	70.4% (438)	−.061	.186	.106	.744
Ethnicity	Māori	51.6% (65)	67.6% (117)	−.232	.306	.574	.449
	NZ European	48.2% (380)	70.6% (728)	−.504	.351	2.056	.152
	Pacific	60.0% (18)	74.4% (29)	−.278	.568	.240	.624
	Asian	52.9% (37)	74.5% (79)	−.091	.443	.043	.837
Household Income	Continuous	12.56 (3.45)	12.49 (3.59)	−.040	.030	1.718	.190
Education	No formal qualification	63.5% (73)	69.9% (135)
	NCEA Level 1 equivalent	64.4% (47)	80.8% (97)	.560	.419	1.785	.182
	NCEA Level 2 equivalent	63.6% (42)	71.1% (64)	.053	.426	.016	.900
	University Entrance equivalent	37.9% (22)	72.0% (72)	1.167	.431	7.344	.007
	Trade/professional certificate	54.5% (85)	69.3% (138)	.352	.334	1.111	.292
	Diploma	48.4% (45)	73.6% (134)	.823	.365	5.082	.024
	Degree	54.3% (76)	66.1% (150)	.215	.332	.418	.518
	Postgraduate degree	47.8% (54)	67.9% (114)	.548	.353	2.403	.121
2014 Party Vote	Did not vote	35.7% (15)	57.9% (55)	−.226	.396	.325	.569
	Labour	52.9% (91)	74.8% (220)	.098	.356	.076	.782
	National	59.7% (225)	71.5% (406)	−.337	.325	1.078	.299
	Green	47.7% (41)	64.5% (78)	−.187	.410	.208	.649
	NZ First	61.4% (35)	79.5% (66)	.036	.483	.005	.941
Left-right Scale	Left (0–4)	54.1% (100)	71.1% (219)
	Centre (5)	51.1% (113)	70.1% (282)	−.067	.260	.066	.797
	Right (6–10)	61.1% (149)	70.7% (246)	−.386	.247	2.445	.118
Political interest	Continuous	2.35 (.76)	2.23 (.74)	−.039	.120	.103	.748
Political efficacy	Continuous	2.85 (1.19)	2.72 (1.13)	.024	.081	.090	.764
Support Changing the Flag	Yes	59.5% (196)	72.2% (332)	−.058	.124	.217	.166

Note: For categorical variables with more than two categories, the first category is used as the reference category. Bold signifies a statistically significant effect.