An exploratory and comparative assessment of the tourist circulation at the level of some countries of the South-Eastern European union in the current pandemic context

Figures & data

Figure 1. Annual arrivals in the period 2010–2021 (first semester).

Source: Author contribution based on statistical data⁹

Table

x	$-\frac{N}{2}$	$-\frac{N}{2}+1$	…	$-\frac{N}{2}+(N-2)$	$-\frac{N}{2}+(N-1)$
f(x)	y0	y1	…	yN-2	yN-1

Figure 2. Evolution of time series arrivals.

Source: Author Estimations based on SPSS 28

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics for the series arrivals.

	N	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. Deviation
ARR_BG	139	16494	1468322	511842,60	302633,253
ARR_CR	139	2241	4707875	1087341,53	1197893,991
ARR_RO	139	16855	1869383	770117,60	349393,929
Valid N (listwise)	139

Source: Author Estimations.

Figure 3. Correlogram ACF and PACF.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 5. Trend for the stationary data series.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 6. Seasonal averages for series d (arr_BG, 2), d (arr_CR, 2) and d (arr_RO, 2).

Source: Author Estimations based on EViews

Figure 7. STL Decomposition for the stationary data series.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 8. Forecast series for Bulgaria.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 9. Forecast series for arr_CR and Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas_CR.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 10. Forecast series for arr_RO and Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 11. Normal probability plot for serie arr_BG and Forecast_ReSeas_BG.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 12. Normal probability plot for serie arr_CR and Forecast_ReSeas_CR.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 13. Normal probability plot for serie arr_RO and Forecast_ReSeas_RO.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 14. Predicted values Forecast_ReSeas_BG vs observed and distribution of residuals.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 15. Predicted values Forecast_ReSeas_CR vs Observed and distribution of residuals.

Source: Author Estimations

Figure 16. Predicted values Forecast_ReSeas_RO vs Observed and distribution of residuals.

Source: Author Estimations

Table 2. Correlations for series arr_BG and Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas serie for Bulgaria.

Variable	Variable2	Statistic
		Correlation	Count	Lower C.I.	Upper C.I.	Notes
arr_bg	Forecast_reseas	,903	128	,866	,931	all observations
arr_bg	Forecast_reseas	,943	124	,919	,960	except 2020M03-M06
arr_bg	Forecast_reseas	,971	111	,959	,980	until 2020M03

Missing value handling: PAIRWISE, EXCLUDE. C.I. Level: 95.0.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 3. Correlations for series arr_BG and Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas serie for Bulgaria.

		arr_bg	Forecast_reseas
arr_bg	Pearson Correlation	1	,971**
	Sig. (2-tailed)		<,001
	N	111	111
Forecast_reseas	Pearson Correlation	,971**	1
	Sig. (2-tailed)	<,001
	N	111	123

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 4. Model Summary for Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas_BG.

Model	R	R Square	Adjusted R Square	Std. Error of the Estimate
1	,971^a	,944	,943	66228,28767

Predictors: (Constant), arr_bg.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 5. Correlations for series arr_CR and Fourier_Forecast_ReSeas serie for Croatia.

		ARR_CR	Forecast_ReSEAS
ARR_CR	Pearson Correlation	1	,964**
	Sig. (2-tailed)		<,001
	N	111	111
Forecast_ReSEAS	Pearson Correlation	,964**	1
	Sig. (2-tailed)	<,001
	N	111	123

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 6. Model Summary for Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas_CR.

Variable	Variable2	Statistic
		Correlation	Count	Lower C.I.	Upper C.I.	Notes
ARR_CR	Forecast_ReSEAS	,917	128	,884	,941	all observations
ARR_CR	Forecast_ReSEAS	,935	124	,909	,954	except 2020M03-M06
ARR_CR	Forecast_ReSEAS	,964	111	,948	,975	until 2020M03

Missing value handling: PAIRWISE, EXCLUDE. C.I. Level: 95.0.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 7. Model Summary for Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas_CR.

Model	R	R Square	Adjusted R Square	Std. Error of the Estimate
1	,964^a	,930	,929	239642,14528

Predictors: (Constant), ARR_CR.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 8. Correlations for series arr_RO and Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas serie for Romania.

Variable	Variable2	Statistic
		Correlation	Count	Lower C.I.	Upper C.I.	Notes
ARR_RO	Forecast_ReSEAS	,812	128	,743	,864	all observations
ARR_RO	Forecast_ReSEAS	,851	125	,794	,893	except 2020M03-M06
ARR_RO	Forecast_ReSEAS	,924	111	,891	,947	until 2020M03

Missing value handling: PAIRWISE, EXCLUDE. C.I. Level: 95.0.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 9. Model Summary for Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas_RO.

		ARR_RO	Forecast_ReSEAS
ARR_RO	Pearson Correlation	1	,924**
	Sig. (2-tailed)		<,001
	N	111	111
Forecast_ReSEAS	Pearson Correlation	,924**	1
	Sig. (2-tailed)	<,001
	N	111	124

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Source: Author Estimations.

Figure 17. Forecast Fourier.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 10. Model Summary for Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas_RO.

Model	R	R Square	Adjusted R Square	Std. Error of the Estimate
1	,924^a	,854	,852	101908,0729

Predictors: (Constant), ARR_RO.

Source: Author Estimations.

Table 11. Forecast_Fourier_ReSeas.

Date	Forecast_ReSeas_BG	Forecast_ReSeas_CR	Forecast_ReSeas_RO
2021M08	1163348	3073683	1558375
2021M09	722155.6	1637344	1039560
2021M10	370464.3	690742.5	882924.4
2021M11	317969.1	266912.6	759668.4
2021M12	419486	278549.2	641450.1
2022M01	325109.8	204554.9	572985.1
2022M02	319324.1	251662.1	597534.2
2022M03	357757.7	388605.1	665461.1
2022M04	439111	1083097	701629.1
2022M05	581611.4	1486059	937725.5
2022M06	973570.3	2436859	1093202
2022M07	1224693	3315792	1410539

Source: Author Estimations.

Data availability statement

The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.