When migrants become ‘the people’: unpacking homeland populism

Figures & data

Table 1. Case characteristics.

Case (polity/party election year)	Ecuador/APAIS 2017	Turkey/AKP 2018	Estonia/EKRE, 2019
Political system
Political freedom^a	3 (partly free)	5 (not free)	1 (free)
Political regime	Electoral Democracy	Electoral Autocracy	Liberal Democracy
Political system	Presidential	Presidential	Parliamentary
Party system fragmentation^b	3.52 (ENPP) 3.07 (ENPC)	2.97 (ENPP) 2.29 (ENPC)	5.23 (ENPP)
Expatriate voting context
Expatriate voting system^c	Voting abroad for direct representation	Voting abroad for home district	Voting abroad for home district
External voter turnout	43.3%	50.1%	7%
Party specifics
Type of populism	Left-wing inclusionary	Authoritarian exclusionary	Right-wing exclusionary
Position before/ after elections	Incumbent/incumbent	Incumbent/incumbent	Challenger/incumbent
% of votes in total	48.3% (legislative) 54.2% (presidential)	42.6% (legislative) 52.6 (presidential)	17.9% (legislative)
% of external votes	43.1% (legislative) 46% (Average of first round and run-off)	56.4% (legislative) 59.4% (presidential)	43.7%^d (legislative)
Migratory context
Main migratory destination, share of registered external voters	Spain 44.5%	Germany 47.35%	Finland 51%
Dominant reason(s) for migration to destination country	Labour	Labour, family reunification and political	Labour

^a Freedom house Freedom in the World Political Rights rating category in the respective year for the respective country.

^b The effective number of political parties (ENPP) in the respective legislative elections (1/∑p_i²). For presidential elections, we calculated the effective number of presidential candidates in the case of Ecuador in the first round (ENPC).

^c Types according to Collyer (2014).

^d Of paper ballots cast, results of online voting are not differentiated based on location of voting.

Table 2. Summary of the transnational populist constructions of the three campaigns.

	AKP	APAIS	EKRE
The people	Ethnoreligious construction of Turks who have somehow ended up abroad, important influence agents for its country and people.	Ecuadorians forced to go abroad, sending remittances home.	Estonians (esp. young people) who have been or might be forced to go abroad.
The antagonist	Elite-level: governments in host societies (e.g. German political elites). Societal-level: Gulenists, Kurds and Alevis.	Elite-level: Banking elites and governing elites as their puppets.	Elite-level: cartel parties and political establishment as puppets of ‘Brussels’. Societal-level: Muslim immigrants, LGBT.

Source: Authors.

EKRE. (2019). Eesti eest! TV ad. Accessed on Youtube www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7R5gUQoY3c, 30.05.2020

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Collyer, M. (2014). A geography of extra-territorial citizenship: Explanations of external voting. Migration Studies, 2(1), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mns008

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