Critical Junctures, Ideological Continuity and Change in Western Europe: Comparing the Pandemic and the Global Financial Crises

Figures & data

Table 1. Qualitative indicators of change in ideational structures.

Ideational structures Hegemonic

Threat defined by state and int. actors (incl. blame-shifting) Do the causes and enemies identified signal novelty? (+, −, /)*

Policy framework devised by state and int. actors Does the logic and content of measures signal novelty? (+, −, /)* Counter-Hegemonic

Threat defined by policy dissenters (incl. blame-shifting) Do the causes and/or enemies identified signal novelty? (+, −, /)*

Policy Framework suggested by policy dissenters Does the critique of measure and the proposal of counter-measures signal novelty? (+, −, /)* Ideological dynamics in politics

Ideological coordinates of conflict Has there been realignment across distinct political spaces, between hegemony and counter-hegemony? (+, −, /)* Political space openness Has there been a clear pattern of electoral success for certain political space(s) in the aftermath of crisis? (+, −, /)* Net change

(+, −, /) (between −6 to +6)**

Notes: Authors’ own elaboration. + refers to change, − refers to no change, / refers to elements of change and continuity balancing out each other, * refers to the type of change, and ** refers to the degree of change.

Figure 1. Theoretical schema of critical junctures in ideological change. Source: Adapted from Hogan (2019, 12).

Table 2. Ideational structures across crises.

Hegemony/counter-hegemony		Indicators of change	Financial crisis (post 2008)	Pandemic crisis (post 2020)
Dominant ideas/discourse	Threat defined by state and int. actors (including blame-shifting)	Causes of threat/blame directions	(−)	(+)
	Policy framework implemented	New/changing ideas in measures	(/)	(+)
Dissenting ideas/discourse	Threat defined by policy dissenters (including blame-shifting)	Causes of threat/Blame direction	(/)	(/)
	Policy framework advocated by policy dissenters	New/changing ideas in measures	(+)	(+)
Dynamics of hegemony	Ideological coordinates of conflict	Political realignment between hegemony-counter-hegemony	(+)	(+)
	Political space openness	Electoral success across political space	(+)	(−)
Net total (+, −, or /) + = change − = continuity / = change and continuity balancing out			2 (+)	3 (+)
CJ/not CJ			3rd order change (not CJ)	2nd order change (not CJ)

Note: Authors’ own elaboration.

Hogan, John. 2019. “The Critical Juncture Concept’s Evolving Capacity to Explain Policy Change.” European Policy Analysis 5 (2): 180–182.

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