Can cooperation reduce yield risks associated with infectious diseases in shrimp aquaculture in Vietnam?

Figures & data

Table 1. Farm practices in farm-based scenario and additional practices in three cooperation scenarios.

	Cooperation scenarios
Farm-based	Synchronization	Information-sharing	Combination
Proper pond preparation Proper biosecurity maintenance Post larvae from reliable suppliers Proper water management Adherence to seasonal crop calendar Proper disease treatment and shrimp health treatment with probiotics and medicines	… of pond cleaning and disinfection … of batch production … of the use of pathogen-free post larvae for stock … of fully treating contaminated water and effluent before release … of the timing of discharging contaminated water and effluents	About: environmental conditions shrimp health & behavior experience with treatment methods early signals of disease and appearance of disease vectors Through group chat and social media apps (Zalo) for informing, providing, updating & exchanging information with trusted sources	All synchronization and information sharing practices

Table 2. Overview of input data in the farm-based scenario and the different cooperation scenarios.

Variable	Unit	Distribution	Description	Scenario
				Farm-based	Synchronization^i	Information sharing^i	Combination^i
Yieldreference	kg/ha/crop	Normal	Mean; SD	3.080; 1.403^a
Prevalence ratereference	% per crop	Uniform	Min; Max	10; 20^a
Mortality ratereference	% per crop	Uniform	Min; Max	10; 30^b
Number of crops	#/year	Discrete	Value	1; 2; 3^g
			Probability	0.35; 0.59; 0.06^g
Shrimp price	1,000 VND/kg	Pert	Min; ML; Max	30; 130; 190^h
WSD
Prevalence rate–Lit	% per crop	Uniform	Min; Max	40; 71^c
Prevalence rate–W*	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		29; 43; 64	40; 52; 66	41; 54; 71
Prevalence rate–W**	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		31; 48; 59	34; 51; 62	29; 39; 54
Mortality rate–Lit	% per crop	Uniform	Min; Max	80; 100^d
Mortality rate–W*	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		76; 87; 97	80; 89; 99	70; 79; 88
Mortality rate–W**	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		56; 64; 78	64; 72; 86	47; 57; 70
AHPND
Prevalence rate–Lit	% per crop	Uniform	Min; Max	52; 87^e
Prevalence rate–W*	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		41; 54; 72	48; 70; 80	41; 51; 71
Prevalence rate–W**	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		29; 45; 58	42; 55; 70	29; 40; 55
Mortality rate–Lit	% per crop	Uniform	Min; Max	40; 100^f
Mortality rate–W*	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		40; 56; 89	38; 64; 89	34; 54; 78
Mortality rate–W**	% per crop	Pert	Min; ML; Max		31; 47; 60	40; 55; 72	29; 43; 56

Notes: Lit: literature; W*: workshop in English; W**: workshop in Vietnamese; min: Minimum; ML: most likely; Max: maximum; SD: standard deviation.

Source: ^aPhong et al., 2021; ^b Ngoc et al., 2021; ^cDesrina et al., 2022; ^dOIE 2021 and Thitamadee et al., 2016; ^eNguyen et al., 2021; ^fBoonyawiwat et al., 2018 and OIE 2021; ^gDuy et al., 2021; ^hLe et al., 2022; ⁱExpert elicitation in two workshops.

Figure 1. Cumulative expected yield losses caused by WSD in farm-based and cooperation scenarios for a hypothetical area of 1,000 shrimp farms based on results of two expert elicitation workshops, one in English (left) and one in Vietnamese (right).

Figure 2. Cumulative expected yield losses caused by AHPND in farm-based and cooperation scenarios for a hypothetical area of 1,000 shrimp farms based on outcomes from two expert elicitation workshops, one conducted in English (left) and one in Vietnamese (right).

Figure A1. Results of expert parameter elicitation for WSD.

Figure A2. Results of expert parameter elicitation for AHPND.

Figure A3. Sensitivity analysis WSD.

Figure A4. Sensitivity analysis AHPND.

Table B1. Annual WSD expected yield losses in the farm-based scenario and three cooperation scenarios for a hypothetical area of 1,000 shrimp farms (in 1,000,000 VND).

	Scenario	Mean	SD	5th percentile	95th percentile
	Farm-based	886,888	465,299	226,970	1,723,534
English workshop	Synchronization	359,917	195,839	91,104	716,210
	Information sharing	453,499	240,348	114,664	887,529
	Combination	402,990	212,400	103,096	788,880
Vietnamese workshop	Synchronization	282,959	150,637	72,112	559,089
	Information sharing	341,339	183,243	85,902	670,218
	Combination	213,315	114,801	52,582	423,138

Table B2. Annual AHPND expected yield losses in the farm-based scenario and three cooperation scenarios for a hypothetical area of 1,000 shrimp farms (in 1,000,000 VND).

	Scenario	Mean	SD	5th percentile	95th percentile
	Farm-based	519,159	165,023	273,631	812,059
English workshop	Synchronization	299,748	164,631	73,801	604,363
	Information sharing	405,977	218,450	99,901	797,879
	Combination	267,621	147,382	65,548	530,910
Vietnamese workshop	Synchronization	193,187	106,422	45,865	392,032
	Information sharing	285,185	152,896	71,180	566,609
	Combination	164,152	90,312	39,291	329,724

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