Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1960 to 2008

Abstract

We investigate whether uranium, similar to other resources, is associated with armed conflicts. The analysis uses grid cells in Africa to test this hypothesis. Results from logistic regressions reveal that uranium operations are not an independent conflict risk; however, it is significantly linked to local conflict events when interacting with ethnic exclusion. The analysis is supplemented by process tracing in four countries, where armed conflict broke out after uranium operations started (DR Congo, Central African Republic, Niger and South Africa). We find substantial evidence for a link only in the case of Niger. Our results suggest that uranium promotes intrastate conflict only under specific circumstances.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Prof. Martin Kalinowski, Director of the Center for Science and Peace Research at the University of Hamburg, for inspiration and advice. Further, we thank Lena Brentrup and Janina Laurent for awesome research assistance. And finally we thank Alexander de Juan and Annegret Mähler for feedback and comments on the manuscript.

Notes

^1. Michael L. Ross, ‘How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases’, International Organization 58/01 (2004) pp.35–67, doi:10.1017/S002081830458102X; Michael L. Ross, ‘What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?’, Journal of Peace Research 41/3 (May 2004) pp.337–56, doi:10.1177/0022343304043773; Jeffrey Dixon, ‘What Causes Civil Wars? Integrating Quantitative Research Findings’, International Studies Review 11/4 (Dec. 2009) pp.707–35, doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00892.x.

^2. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers 56/4 (2004) pp.563–95, doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064.

^3. Matthias Basedau, Annegret Mähler, and Miriam Shabafrouz, ‘Revisiting the Resource–Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries’, GIGA Working Papers no. 175 (2011); Philippe Le Billon, ‘Diamond Wars? Conflict Diamonds and Geographies of Resource Wars’, Annals of the Association of American Geographers 98/2 (Apr. 2008) pp.345–72, doi:10.1080/00045600801922422; Ross, ‘What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?’ (note 1); Macartan Humphreys, ‘Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49/4 (2005) pp.508–37, doi:10.1177/0022002705277545.

^4. Basedau et al. (note 3); Philippe Le Billon, ‘Natural Resource Types and Conflict Termination Initiatives’, Colombia Internacional 70 (2009) pp.9–34; Humphreys (note 3).

^5. Dixon (note 1); Håvard Hegre and Nicholas Sambanis, ‘Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 50/4 (2006) pp.508–35, doi:10.1177/0022002706289303; James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’, American Political Science Review 97/01 (2003) pp.75–90, doi:10.1017/S0003055403000534.

^6. Fearon and Laitin (note 5).

^7. World Nuclear Association (WNA), ‘Uranium Production Figures, 2000–2010’ (Apr. 2011), online at  < http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/uprod.html>.

^8. World Information Service on Energy – Uranium Project WISE, ‘New Uranium Mining Projects – Africa’ (2012), online at  < http://www.wise-uranium.org/upafr.html>.

^9. World Information Service on Energy – Uranium Project WISE, Malawi Right Watchdog, Catholic Church Voice on Uranium Mine (2009), online at  < http://www.wise-uranium.org/upmw.html>; Although whistle-blower advocacy groups tend to focus primarily on the negative impacts, foreign investment in uranium extraction does also yield positive effects. First, uranium operations involve large investments and create jobs, both of which support economically underdeveloped regions. With the development of mining operations, infrastructure, especially roads and electricity but also medical facilities, is often improved. The attraction of a workforce usually leads to an increased demand for goods and services in nearby towns. In terms of the state budget, revenues can increase considerably due to corporate taxes, royalties and increased consumer and income taxes.

^10. We prefer a more constructivist understanding of ethnicity or ethnic identity Daniel N. Posner, ‘Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa’, American Journal of Political Science 48/4 (2004) pp.849–63; Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press 1985): ethnic identity derives from differences in a variable set of identity markers such as a particular faith, language, regional provenance and the like, but ultimately it results from outside-ascription and self-ascription (and is, hence, in principle, subject to change).

^11. Hegre and Sambanis (note 5); Anke Hoeffler, ‘On the Causes of Civil War’ in Michelle Garfinkel and Stergios Skaperdas (eds) The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict (New York: Oxford University Press 2012) pp.179–204.

^12. See Randall J. Blimes, ‘The Indirect Effect of Ethnic Heterogeneity on the Likelihood of Civil War Onset’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 50/4 (Aug. 2006) pp.536–47, doi:10.1177/00222706289402; Gudrun Østby, ‘Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict’, Journal of Peace Research 45/2 (Mar. 2008) pp.143–62, doi:10.1177/0022343307087169.

^13. Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press 1965); Charles Tilly, From Mobilization to Revolution (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co. 1978).

^14. Ted Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton: Princeton University Press 1970); Ted Gurr, Peoples Versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press 2000).

^15. Frances Stewart, Horizontal Inequalities: A Neglected Dimension of Development, QEH Working Paper Series 81 (University of Oxford 2002); Østby (note 12).

^16. For example, James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner, and Jeremy M. Weinstein, ‘Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision?’, American Political Science Review 101/04 (2007) pp.709–25, doi:10.1017/S0003055407070499.

^17. Margit Bussmann, Andreas Hasenclever, and Gerald Schneider, Identität, Institutionen Und Ökonomie: Ursachen Und Scheinursachen Innenpolitischer Gewalt (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften 2009) p.17f.

^18. Posner (note 10).

^19. ‘Minorities at Risk Dataset’ (2009), online at  < http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/>.

^20. Posner (note 10).

^21. Lars-Erik Cederman, Brian Min, and Andreas Wimmer, ‘The Ethnic Power Relations Dataset (EPR-ETH) Version 2.0’ (May 2009), online at  < http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/11796>.

^22. For example, Andreas Wimmer, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Brian Min, ‘Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set’, American Sociological Review 74/2 (Apr. 2009) pp.316–37, doi:10.1177/000312240907400208; Lars-Erik Cederman, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min, ‘Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis’, World Politics 62/01 (2010) p.87, doi:10.1017/S0043887109990219.

^23. Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler, and Dominic Rohner, ‘Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers 61/1 (Jan. 2009) p.23, doi:10.1093/oep/gpn029. Argue that ‘where rebellion is feasible, it will occur without any special inducements in terms of motivation’.

^24. Gurr, Why Men Rebel (note 14); Gudrun Østby, Ragnhild Nordås, and Jan Ketil Rød, ‘Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa’, International Studies Quarterly 53/2 (Jun. 2009) pp.301–24, doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00535.x.

^25. Halvard Buhaug and Jan Ketil Rød, ‘Local Determinants of African Civil Wars, 1970–2001’, Political Geography 25/3 (Mar. 2006) pp.315–35, doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2006.02.005; Siri Camilla Rustad, Halvard Buhaug, Åshild Falch, and Scott Gates, ‘All Conflict Is Local’, Conflict Management and Peace Science 28/1 (Feb. 2011) pp.15–40, doi:10.1177/0738894210388122.

^26. Buhaug and Rød (note 25) p.315.

^27. Evan S. Lieberman, ‘Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research’, American Political Science Review 99/03 (2005) pp.435–52, doi:10.1017/S0003055405051762.

^28. Ibid.

^29. Andreas Forø Tollefsen, Håvard Strand, and Halvard Buhaug, ‘PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure’, Journal of Peace Research 49/2 (Mar. 2012) pp.363–74, doi:10.1177/0022343311431287; Andreas Forø Tollefsen, PRIO-GRID Codebook. Version 1.01 (Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo 2012), online at  < http://www.prio.no/Global/upload/CSCW/Data/PRIO-GRID_codebook_v1_01.pdf>.

^30. Tollefsen (note 29) p.7.

^31. Ralph Sundberg, Mathilda Lindgren, and Ausra Padskocimaite, UCDP Geo-referenced Event Dataset (GED) Codebook. Version 1.5 (2010), online at  < http://www.samfak.uu.se/digitalAssets/83/83721_ucdp_ged_v.1.0-codebook.pdf>; Erik Melander and Ralph Sundberg, Climate Change, Environmental Stress, and Violent Conflict – Test Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset, Paper presented at the International Studies Association, Montreal, Canada, 16–19 Mar. 2011.

^32. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ‘Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand. A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency’ (2009), online at  < http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?lang = EN&sf1 = identifiers&st1 = 978-92-64-04789-1>; International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ‘World Distribution of Uranium Deposits (UDEPO)’ (2012), online at < http://infcis.iaea.org/UDEPO/UDEPOMain.asp?Order = 1&RPage = 1&Page = 1&RightP = List>; International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ‘World Distribution of Uranium Deposits (UDEPO)’ (2007), online at < http://infcis.iaea.org/UDEPO/UDEPOMain.asp?Order = 1&RPage = 1&Page = 1&RightP = List>.

^33. We use ‘operations’ or ‘ventures’ as the umbrella term for exploration, development and production, and for dormant and depleted mines. For the purpose of our study all of the operational statuses are relevant and are included in the data-set. The data-set and codebook are available in the web appendix.

^34. Cederman et al. (note 22); Philipp Hunziker, GrowUP Research Front-End Documentation: RFE Release 1.0. (Zürich: ETH Zurich 10 Nov. 2011), online at < http://www.icr.ethz.ch/data/growup/RFE_Documentation>.

^35. An ethnic group is considered politically relevant if a political organization claims to represent the group's interests in national politics or if the group is being systematically discriminated against Julian Wucherpfennig, Nils B. Weidmann, Luc Girardin, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Andreas Wimmer, ‘Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups Across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset’, Conflict Management and Peace Science 28/5 (Feb. 2011) p.427, doi:10.1177/0738894210393217.

^36. Cederman et al. (note 22) p.88.

^37. Ibid., p.101.

^38. Ibid., p.100.

^39. Buhaug and Rød (note 25); Tollefsen et al. (note 29); Tollefsen (note 29).

^40. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University; and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) CIESIN, Gridded Population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Grids. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) (Columbia University 2005), online at < http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/>, available through Tollefsen (note 29).

^41. Fearon and Laitin (note 5); Collier and Hoeffler (note 2).

^42. William D. Nordhaus, ‘Geography and Macroeconomics: New Data and New Findings’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103/10 (Mar. 2006) pp.3510–17, doi:10.1073/pnas.0509842103.

^43. Nathaniel Beck, Jonathan N. Katz, and Richard Tucker, ‘Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable’, American Journal of Political Science 42/4 (Oct. 1998) p.1260, doi:10.2307/2991857.

^44. We include all uranium mining statuses – for instance, exploration, development, production and dormant mines – because each status can affect the causal mechanisms outlined in the literature review.

^45. Please refer to the table in Appendix for detailed results of the case selection process.

^46. IAEA, ‘Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand’ (note 32); IAEA, ‘World Distribution of Uranium Deposits (UDEPO)’ (note 32).

^47. Cederman et al. (note 21).

^48. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance (UN-OCHA), Assessment Mission of the Shinkolobwe Uranium Mine (2004), online at < http://ochanet.unocha.org/p/Documents/Shinkolobwepart1.pdf>.

^49. Ecumenical Network Central Africa (ENCA), Uranium Mining in the DR Congo. A Radiant Business for European Nuclear Companies? (2011), online at < http://www.oenz.de/fileadmin/users/oenz/PDF/Studie/Uranium_Mining_in_the_DRC_OENZ_June_2011.pdf>.

^50. Jules Gérard-Libois, Katanga Secession (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press 1966) p.101.

^51. Horowitz (note 10) p.256; Georges Nzongola-Ntalaja, The Congo from Leopold to Kabila: A People's History (London and New York: Zed Books 2002) pp.99–205.

^52. ENCA (note 49); Global Witness, Rush and Ruin: The Devastating Mineral Trade in Southern Katanga, DRC (2004).

^53. UNEP and UN-OCHA (note 48); World Nuclear Association (WNA), Uranium in Africa (Dec. 2011), online at < http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf112.html>.

^54. UNEP and UN-OCHA (note 48).

^55. René Lemarchand, Political Awakening in the Belgian Congo (Berkeley: University of California Press 1964).

^56. Global Witness (note 52); Open Society Institute of Southern Africa, Third World Network Africa, Tax Justice Network Africa, Action Aid International, and Christian Aid, Breaking the Curse: How Transparent Taxation and Fair Taxes Can Turn Africa's Mineral Wealth into Development (2009), online at < http://www.christianaid.org.uk/Images/breaking-the-curse.pdf>.

^57. Horowitz (note 10) p.255; Lemarchand (note 55) p.235.

^58. International Crisis Group, Katanga: The Congo's Forgotten Crisis, Africa Report No. 103 (2006), online at < http://www.crisisgroup.org/∼/media/Files/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/Katanga%20The%20Congos%20Forgotten%20Crisis.pdf>.

^59. Lemarchand (note 55) p.235.

^60. Rosemary B. Karaskiewicz and Virginia Kelty, Katanga: A Critical Geographical Analysis (Chicago: Northeastern Illinois State College 1970).

^61. Cederman et al. (note 21).

^62. Cleophas Tsokodayi, Namibia's Independence Struggle (Bloomington, IN: Xlibris Corporation 2011); Tore Linné Eriksen and Richard Moorsom, The Political Economy of Namibia: An Annotated Critical Bibliography (Uppsala, Sweden: Nordic Africa Institute 1989) p.234.

^63. WNA (note 7).

^64. Colin Leys, John S. Saul, and Susan Brown, Namibia's Liberation Struggle: The Two-Edged Sword (London: J. Curry 1995) p.10.

^65. ‘Uranium: Saving or Sinking Namibia?’, The Namibian 7 Jan. 2011, online at < http://www.namibian.com.na/index.php?id = 28&tx_ttnews%5btt_news%5d = 76433&no_cache = 1>.

^66. World Information Service on Energy – Uranium Project WISE, Namibia: Issues at Operating Uranium Mines and Mills – Africa (2012), online at < http://www.wise-uranium.org/umopafr.html#NA>.

^67.The Namibian (note 65).

^68. Linda Freeman, ‘Contradictions of Independence: Namibia in Transition’, Transformation 17 (1992) p.30.

^69. Norbert Suchanek, Radioaktive Wüste Durch Uran. Größter Tagebau in Namibia Verschärft Auch Wasserproblem (2008), online at < http://www.ag-friedensforschung.de/regionen/Namibia/uran.html>; ‘Uranium in Groundwater “Not Serious”: Roessing’, The Namibian 24 Jun. 2005, online at < http://www.namibian.com.na/index.php?id = 28&tx_ttnews%5btt_news%5d = 16477&no_cache = 1>; Hilma Shindondola-Mote, Uranium Mining in Namibia: The Mystery Behind “Low Level Radiation” (Windhoek: Labour Resource and Research Institute 2009) p.29.

^70. ‘Earthlife Opposes New Uranium Mine’, The Namibian 22 Apr. 2005, online at < http://www.namibian.com.na/index.php?id = 28&tx_ttnews[tt_news] = 11813&no_cache = 1;‘Earthlife> Urges Public to Oppose Nuclear Plant’, The Namibian 19 Jan. 2012, online at < http://www.namibian.com.na/news/full-story/archive/2012/january/article/earthlife-urges-public-to-oppose-nuclear-plant/>; ‘Mixed Feelings About New Uranium Mine’, The Namibian 8 Mar. 2006, online at < http://www.namibian.com.na/index.php?id = 28&tx_ttnews[tt_news] = 26681&no_cache = 1>.

^71. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Country Report Namibia August 2011 (Aug. 2011), online at < http://www.eiu.com/Default.aspx>; Shindondola-Mote (note 69) pp.34–42.

^72. Freeman (note 68).

^73. Population of around 200,000; Paul Lewis, Ethnologue: Languages of the World. 16th ed. (2009), online at < http://www.ethnologue.com/show_language.asp?code = naq>.

^74. Suchanek (note 69).

^75. Anene Ejikeme, Culture and Customs of Namibia (Santa Barbara, CA: Greenwood 2011) p.13.

^76. Freeman (note 68) p.30.

^77. Cederman et al. (note 21).

^78. Jeremy Keenan, ‘Uranium Goes Critical in Niger: Tuareg Rebellions Threaten Sahelian Conflaration’, Review of African Political Economy 35/117 (2008) pp.449–66.

^79. Gabrielle Hecht, Being Nuclear: Africans and the Global Uranium Trade (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 2012).

^80. Keenan (note 78); Greenpeace, Left in the Dust: AREVA's Radioactive Legacy in the Desert Towns of Niger (2010), online at < http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/nuclear/2010/AREVA_Niger_report.pdf>.

^81. Keenan (note 78) p.455; World Information Service on Energy – Uranium Project WISE, Niger: Issues at Operating Uranium Mines and Mills – Niger (2012), online at < http://www.wise-uranium.org/umopafr.html#NE>.

^82. Greenpeace (note 80).

^83. Hecht (note 79) sec. 2; Chekou Koré Lawel, La Rébellion Touareg Au Niger: Raisons De Persistance Et Tentatives De Solution (Paris: L'Harmattan 2010); ‘Revolt in the Desert’, Africa Confidential 21 Sept. 2007, online at < http://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/2318/Revolt_in_the_desert>.

^84. Keenan (note 78); Africa Confidential (note 83).

^85. Greenpeace (note 80).

^86. Keenan (note 78).

^87. Lawel (note 83); Alain Deschamps, Niger 1995: Revolte Touaregue: Du Cessez-le-feu Provisoire a La “Paix Definitive” (Paris and Montréal (Québec): L'Harmattan 2000).

^88. Interview in December 2006 by one of the authors with Rhissa Ag Boula, the Tuareg leader who had signed the peace accord in 1995, and later joined the renewed rebellion.

^89. Keenan (note 78); Lawel (note 83); Abdalla Muna, Understanding of the Natural Resource Conflict Dynamics. The Case of Tuareg in North Africa and the Sahel (Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies 2009).

^90. Frédéric Deycard, Les Rébellions Touarègues Du Niger: Combattants, Mobilisations Et Culture Politique (Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux 2011), chap. IV–V.

^91. Counterfactually, one may wonder whether the rebellion would have taken place without uranium. Given similar rebellions in neighbouring Mali (without uranium production – there is just exploration), one may argue that uranium is just a reinforcing factor not a root cause.

^92. Cederman et al. (note 21).

^93. World Nuclear Association (WNA), Nuclear Power in South Africa (Dec. 2011), online at < http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf88.html>.

^94. World Nuclear Association (WNA), World Uranium Mining (2011), online at < http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf23.html>.

^95. For instance, smoking 30 cigarettes per day accrues to 60–80 mSv/year; Fleur Scheele and Joseph Wilde-Ramsing, Uranium from Africa: Mitigation of Uranium Mining Impacts on Society and Environment by Industry and Governments (Amsterdam: WISE and SOMO 2011), online at < http://somo.nl/publications-nl/Publication_3688-nl/at_download/fullfile>.

^96. ‘Radioactive Substances Found in Veggies’, The Independent Online 2 Feb. 2008, < http://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/radioactive-substances-found-in-veggies-1.387875>.

^97. World Information Service on Energy – Uranium Project WISE, Decommissioning Projects – South Africa (2012), online at < http://www.wise-uranium.org/udza.html#SPRUIT>; Scheele and Wilde-Ramsing (note 95).

^98. Greenpeace, The True Cost of Nuclear Power in South Africa (Greenpeace Aug. 2011) p.16, online at < http://www.greenpeace.org/africa/Global/africa/publications/The%20true%20cost%20of%20Nuclear%20Power%20in%20SA-Screen.pdf>.

^99. David Fig, Uranium Road: Questioning South Africa's Nuclear Direction (Jacana Media 2006) pp.61–69.

^100. Nancy L. Clark and William H. Worger, South Africa: The Rise and Fall of Apartheid. 2nd ed. (Harlow, England and New York: Longman 2011).

^101. For instance, French troops were deployed to protect uranium mines in Niger shortly after the beginning of the intervention in Mali in Feb. 2013, online at < http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21318043>, accessed 29 Mar. 2013.