Finding the Utility of Force to Protect Civilians from Violence: Exploring Outcomes of United Nations Military Protection Operations in Africa (1999–2017)

Figures & data

Table 1. Perpetrator’s use of violence vs. protector’s use of military force.

Perpetrator violence against civilians	Protector use of military force to protect
Impairment (e.g., presence of armed actors and constant threat of armed clashes)	Amelioration (e.g., presence of observers reporting human rights violations)
Incitement (e.g., indiscriminate attacks by insurgents in government-held areas)	Containment (e.g., creation of weapon-free zones, counter-IED operations)
Deterrence or coercion of civilians (e.g., threats or retaliatory attacks against civilians associated with the enemy, or demonstrative violence to make people flee) (e.g., threats or retaliatory attacks against civilians associated with the enemy, or demonstrative violence to make people flee)	Deterrence or coercion of the perpetrators (e.g., threats or actual use of force to alter the willingness to target civilians through robust show of force or punishing attacks)
Destruction of civilian life or property (e.g., massacres or scorched earth policies) (e.g., massacres or scorched earth policies)	Destruction of perpetrator capabilities (e.g., neutralisation of rebel forces) (e.g., neutralisation of rebel forces)

Table 2. Outcome calibrations with fuzzy scores, qualitative descriptions, number of cases and case IDs from UNPOCO.

Fuzzy score	Description	No. of cases	Case IDs from UNPOCO
1.0	Everyone protected	21	UNMIL Liberia4	UNISFA Abyei2 Abyei6 Abyei8 Abyei11 Abyei12 Abyei20		UNMISS SouthSudan3		UNAMID Darfur10 Darfur11 Darfur13 Darfur14 Darfur15 Darfur16 Darfur17
			MINUSMA Mali2 Mali5 Mali6	MONUSCO DRC106		MINUSCA CAR1 CAR6
0.75	Many protected	49	UNMIL Liberia1 Liberia3 Liberia5 Liberia6 Liberia8 Liberia15	UNISFA Abyei1 Abyei3 Abyei4 Abyei5 Abyei7 Abyei9 Abyei18		UNMISS SouthSudan1 SouthSudan13		UNAMID Darfur1 Darfur5
			MINUSMA Mali4 Mali9	MONUC DRC1 DRC5 DRC8 DRC12 DRC14 DRC15	DRC16 DRC17 DRC21 DRC22 DRC24 DRC26	MONUSCO DRC28 DRC45 DRC47 DRC51 DRC53 DRC54	DRC55 DRC56 DRC61 DRC64 DRC69 DRC85	MINUSCA CAR7
			UNMIS Sudan1 Sudan2	UNOCI IvoryCoast1 IvoryCoast2 IvoryCoast3
0.25	Few protected	46	UNMIL Liberia7 Liberia9 Liberia10	UNAMSIL SierraLeone1		UNMISS SouthSudan5 SouthSudan6 SouthSudan11 SouthSudan12		UNAMID Darfur2 Darfur4 Darfur6 Darfur7 Darfur9
			MINUSMA Mali1	MONUC DRC2 DRC3 DRC4 DRC10 DRC13	DRC19 DRC23 DRC25	MONUSCO DRC44 DRC49 DRC57 DRC63 DRC66 DRC68 DRC70 DRC71 DRC72 DRC74 DRC76	DRC77 DRC79 DRC81 DRC82 DRC83 DRC88 DRC91 DRC99 DRC102 DRC103	MINUSCA CAR4 CAR8
			UNOCI IvoryCoast6
0.0	No-one protected	10	UNISFA Abyei10 Abyei13 Abyei14 Abyei15 Abyei16 Abyei19 Abyei21	MONUSCO DRC27		UNMISS SouthSudan10 SouthSudan15

Table 3. Troop-to-population ratio calibrations with fuzzy scores, descriptions, number of cases, ratio thresholds and case IDs from UNPOCO.

Fuzzy score	Term	No.	Threshold	Case-IDs from UNPOCO (126)
1.0	Fully in	20	<1:100	UNISFA Abyei116 Abyei18–21
0.75	Mostly in	29	>1:100 <1:500	UNAMSIL SierraLeone1	UNMIL Liberia3–10		UNAMID Darfur1–2 Darfur4–7 Darfur9–11 Darfur13–17	CAR CAR4 CAR6–8
				UNMISS SouthSudan5–6
0.25	Mostly out	10	>1:500 <1:1,000	UNMIL Liberia1 Liberia15	UNMISS SouthSudan3 SouthSudan10–13 SouthSudan15		UNOCI IvoryCoast6	CAR CAR1
0.0	Fully out	67	>1:1,000	MONUC DRC1–5 DRC8 DRC10 DRC12 DRC13–17 DRC19 DRC21–26	MONUSCO DRC27–28 DRC44–45 DRC47 DRC49 DRC51 DRC53–57 DRC61 DRC63–64 DRC66 DRC68–72	DRC74 DRC76–77 DRC79 DRC81–83 DRC85 DRC 88 DRC91 DRC99 DRC102–103 DRC106	UNOCI IvoryCoast1–3	UNMIS Sudan1–2
				UNMISS SouthSudan1	MINUSMA Mali1–2 Mali4–6 Mali9

Table 4. Calibration of TCCs' willingness to accept risk.

Crisp score	Description	# TCCs	TCCs
1.0	Willing	26	Ethiopia Benin Burkina Faso Chad Gabon Gambia Guatemala Guinea Ireland	Malawi Mauritania Mongolia Nepal Netherlands Niger Nigeria Portugal Rwanda	Senegal South Africa Sweden Tanzania Togo Ukraine Uruguay
0.0	Hesitant	12	Bangladesh Cambodia China Egypt	Ghana India Indonesia Jordan	Kenya Morocco Pakistan Philippines

Table 5. Calibration of TCC's willingness to accept risk, including constallations of willing/hesitant TCCS, fuzzy scores, description, number of cases, and case IDs.

Fuzzy score	Description	No.	Case IDs from UNPOCO
1.0	Willing	54	MONUC DRC2	MONUSCO DRC54 DRC56–57 DRC61 DRC70–71 DRC81	DRC85 DRC88 DRC91 DRC99	UNAMID Darfur1–2 Darfur4–7 Darfur9–11 Darfur13–17
			UNOCI IvoryCoast2–3	UNISFA Abyei1–16 Abyei18–21		UNMIL Liberia7
			MINUSMA Mali2 Mali4–6	MINUSCA CAR6
0.75	Fairly willing	32	MONUC DRC1 DRC10 DRC19	MONUSCO DRC49 DRC55 DRC64 DRC66 DRC68–69 DRC72	DRC74 DRC76–77 DRC79 DRC82–83 DRC102–103 DRC106	UNMISS SouthSudan5 SouthSudan10 SouthSudan13 SouthSudan15
			UNOCI IvoryCoast6	MINUSCA CAR1 CAR8		UNMIL Liberia1 Liberia6 Liberia15
			MINUSMA Mali1 Mali9	UNAMSIL SierraLeone1
0.0	Hesitant	40	MONUC DRC3–5 DRC8 DRC12–17 DRC21–26	MONUSCO DRC27–28 DRC44–45 DRC47	DRC51 DRC53 DRC63	UNMISS SouthSudan1 SouthSudan3 SouthSudan6 SouthSudan11–12
			UNMIS Sudan1–2	UNOCI IvoryCoast1		UNMIL Liberia3–5 Liberia8–10
			MINUSCA CAR4 CAR7

Table 6. Calibration of the pre-emptive/reactive character of UN military protection operations, including fuzzy scores, description, number of cases and case IDs from UNPOCO.

Crisp score	Description	No.	Case-IDs from UNPOCO
1.0	Pre-emptive	43	UNAMSIL SierraLeone1	UNMIL Liberia4		UNMIS Sudan1
			MONUC DRC5 DRC8 DRC10 DRC12 DRC14–17 DRC19 DRC21	MONUSCO DRC28 DRC45 DRC55 DRC61 DRC64 DRC68–69 DRC88 DRC106		UNOCI IvoryCoast2–3
			UNISFA Abyei2 Abyei4 Abyei6–7 Abyei10 Abyei12 Abyei20	UNMISS SouthSudan3		MINUSMA Mali2 Mali5–6
			UNAMID Darfur13–17	MINUSCA CAR1 CAR6–7
0.0	Reactive	83	UNMIL Liberia1 Liberia3 Liberia5–10 Liberia15	UNAMID Darfur1–2 Darfur4–7 Darfur9–11		UNMIS Sudan2
			MONUC DRC1–4 DRC13 DRC22–27	MONUSCO DRC44 DRC47 DRC49 DRC51 DRC53–54 DRC56–57 DRC63 DRC66 DRC70–72	DRC74 DRC76–77 DRC79 DRC81–83 DRC85 DRC91 DRC99 DRC102–103	UNISFA Abyei1 Abyei3 Abyei5 Abyei8–9 Abyei11 Abyei13–16 Abyei18–19 Abyei21
			MINUSMA Mali1 Mali4 Mali9	UNOCI IvoryCoast1 IvoryCoast6		UNMISS SouthSudan1 SouthSudan5–6 SouthSudan10–13 SouthSudan15
			MINUSCA CAR4 CAR8

Table 7. Calibration of UN troops’ ability to match the perpetrators by force, including fuzzy scores, description, number of cases and case IDs from UNPOCO.

Crisp score	Description	No.	Case IDs from UNPOCO
1.0	Match	99	UNAMSIL SierraLeone1	MONUC DRC1 DRC4–5 DRC8 DRC10 DRC12 DRC14–17 DRC19 DRC21–24 DRC26 DRC28	MONUSCO DRC45 DRC47 DRC49 DRC51 DRC53–57 DRC61 DRC64 DRC68–72	DRC74 DRC76–77 DRC79 DRC81–83 DRC85 DRC88 DRC102–103 DRC106
			UNMIL Liberia1 Liberia3–10 Lieria15	UNOCI IvoryCoast1–3	UNAMID Darfur1 Darfur5 Darfur10–11 Darfur13–17
			UNMIS Sudan1	UNMISS SouthSudan1 SouthSudan3 SouthSudan10	UNISFA Abyei1–9 Abyei11–16 Abyei18–20
			MINUSMA Mali2 Mali4–6 Mali9	MINUSCA CAR1 CAR6–8
0.0	Mismatch	27	UNISFA Abyei10 Abyei21	MONUC DRC2–3 DRC13 DRC25	MONUSCO DRC27 DRC44 DRC63 DRC66 DRC91 DRC99
			UNAMID Darfur2 Darfur4 Darfur6–7 Darfur 9	UNMIS Sudan2	UNMISS SouthSudan5–6 SouthSudan11–13 SouthSudan15
			MINUSMA Mali1	UNOCI IvoryCoast6	MINUSCA CAR4

Table 8. Analysis of necessary conditions for the presence of positive outcomes.

Condition	Consistency	Coverage
Deterrent presence (deter)	0.411552	0.644068
Willingness to accept risk (risk)	0.657040	0.583333
Pre-emption (pre-empt)	0.480144	0.773256
Matching (match)	0.902527	0.631313

Figure 1. Venn-diagrams portraying the logic of a trivial (1) and non-trivial (2) necessary condition.

Table 9. Relevant rows from the truth table derived from the analysis of the QCA matrix.

deter	risk	pre-empt	match	number	raw consist.	PRI consist.	SYM consist.
1	0	1	1	2	1.000000	1.000000	1.000000
1	1	1	1	13	0.913043	.906977	0.951220
0	0	1	1	12	0.810345	.717949	1.000000
0	1	1	1	15	0.796610	.750000	0.818182

The consistency score refers to the percentage of configurations of similar composition which result in the same outcome. Coverage refers to the number of cases for which a configuration of conditions is valid.

Table 10. Intermediate solution analysis of the truth table derived from the QCA matrix.

Combinations	Raw coverage	Unique coverage	Consistency	Solution coverage	Solution consistency
Match* pre-empt	0.480144	0.480144	0.791667	0.480144	0.791667

The * only indicates the logical combination of match and pre-empt.

Table

No.	case ID	deter	risk	pre-empt	match	outcome
1	SierraLeone1	0.75	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.25
2	DRC1 (MONUC)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.75
3	Liberia1	0.25	0.75	.0	1.0	0.75
4	DRC2 (MONUC)	0.0	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
5	DRC3 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
6	Liberia3	0.75	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
7	Liberia4	0.75	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
8	Liberia5	0.75	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
9	Liberia6	0.75	0.75	.0	1.0	0.75
10	DRC4 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.25
11	DRC5 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
12	DRC8 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
13	DRC10 (MONUC)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.25
14	DRC12 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
15	DRC13 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
16	DRC14 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
17	DRC15 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
18	DRC16 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
19	IvoryCoast1	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
20	Liberia7	0.75	1.0	.0	1.0	0.25
21	DRC17 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
22	DRC19 (MONUC)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.25
23	Liberia8	0.75	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
24	DRC21 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
25	DRC22 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
26	DRC23 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.25
27	Darfur1	0.75	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
28	DRC24 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
29	DRC25 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
30	Sudan1	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
31	Sudan2	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.75
32	Liberia9	0.75	0.0	.0	1.0	0.25
33	Liberia10	0.75	0.0	.0	1.0	0.25
34	DRC26 (MONUC)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
35	DRC27 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.0
36	DRC28 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
37	Darfur2	0.75	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
38	SouthSudan1	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
39	IvoryCoast2	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
40	IvoryCoast3	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
41	Abyei1	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
42	Abyei2	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
43	Abyei3	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
44	Abyei4	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
45	Abyei5	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
46	Abyei6	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
47	DRC44 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
48	DRC45 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
49	DRC47 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
50	DRC49 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
51	Darfur4	0.75	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
52	Darfur5	0.75	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
53	SouthSudan3	0.25	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
54	SouthSudan5	0.75	0.75	.0	0.0	0.25
55	SouthSudan6	0.75	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
56	Abyei7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
57	Abyei8	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	1.0
58	Abyei9	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
59	Abyei10	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
60	Abyei11	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	1.0
61	DRC51 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
62	DRC53 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	.0	1.0	0.75
63	DRC54 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
64	DRC55 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.75
65	DRC56 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
66	DRC57 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.25
67	Darfur6	0.75	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
68	Darfur7	0.75	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
69	Darfur9	0.75	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
70	Mali1	0.0	0.75	.0	0.0	0.25
71	SouthSudan10	0.25	0.75	.0	1.0	0.0
72	SouthSudan11	0.25	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
73	SouthSudan12	0.25	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
74	SouthSudan13	0.25	0.75	.0	0.0	0.75
75	Abyei12	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
76	Abyei13	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.0
77	Abyei14	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.0
78	Abyei15	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.0
79	DRC61 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
80	DRC63 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
81	DRC64 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.75
82	DRC66 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	0.0	0.25
83	Darfur10	0.75	1.0	.0	1.0	1.0
84	Darfur11	0.75	1.0	.0	1.0	1.0
85	Mali2	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
86	Mali4	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
87	Mali5	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
88	Mali6	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
89	DRC68 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.25
90	DRC69 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	0.75
91	DRC70 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.25
92	DRC71 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.25
93	DRC72 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
94	DRC74 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
95	DRC76 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
96	DRC77 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
97	DRC79 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
98	DRC81 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.25
99	MALI9	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.75
100	DRC82 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
101	DRC83 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
102	DRC85 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
103	DRC88 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.25
104	DRC91 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
105	DRC99 (MONUSCO)	0.0	1.0	.0	0.0	0.25
106	Darfur13	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
107	Darfur14	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
108	Darfur15	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
109	DRC102 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
110	DRC103 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25
111	DRC106 (MONUSCO)	0.0	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0
112	Darfur16	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
113	Darfur17	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
114	Abyei16	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.0
115	Abyei18	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.75
116	Abyei19	1.0	1.0	.0	1.0	0.0
117	Abyei20	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
118	Abyei21	1.0	1.0	.0	0.0	0.0
119	Liberia15	0.25	0.75	.0	1.0	0.75
120	IvoryCoast6	0.25	0.75	.0	0.0	0.25
121	SouthSudan15	0.25	0.75	.0	0.0	0.0
122	CAR1	0.25	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0
123	CAR4	0.75	0.0	.0	0.0	0.25
124	CAR6	0.75	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
125	CAR7	0.75	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.75
126	CAR8	0.75	0.75	.0	1.0	0.25

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in DataverseNO at https://doi.org/10.18710/FZAVCN, United Nations Protection of Civilians Operations dataset (UNPOCO), V1.