Social impact assessment of investment activities in the China–Pakistan economic corridor

Figures & data

Table 1. Projects approved under the CPEC in energy, transport, and infrastructure. ^*

CPEC Projects Portfolio	Cost in US $ Million	%
Energy	33,793	76
Transport and Infrastructure
Roads	6100	24
Rail Network	3690
Gwadar Port	786
Others	44
Total	44,413	100

* Source: Planning Commission of Pakistan, 2014.

Table 2. Regional discourse of CPEC.

Region	Major province	Major city	Population (Million)	Population density (P/km^2)	GDP ($ Million)	Per capita GDP ($)	Industry structure
Southwestern region	Baluchistan province	Quetta	9.71	36	6458.75	665.47	Agriculture and animal husbandry
	Khyber-Pashtun province	Peshawar	23.28	410	17223.76	739.84
Southeastern region	Punjab province	Lahore	101	535	122723.94	1215.09	Most developed areas of industry and agriculture
	Sindh province	Karachi	55.24	340	59208.19	1071.73
Northern region	Kashmir	Muzaffarabad	5.33	62.77	N/A	N/A	More than 80% of the population engaged in farming
Chinese region	Xinjiang Autonomous Region	Kashgar	22.98	14.06	136443.96	5937.5	Mainly in agriculture, animal husbandry and Industry

Note: Data are from Pakistani and Chinese Government websites and have been calculated by the authors. ‘N/A’ means not available or applicable.

Figure 1. The socio-environmental conditions of the CPEC area with: (a) NDVI; (b) Precipitation; (c) Temperature; (d) Light index; and (e) Population density. Source: Authors.

Figure 2. Different zones of the CPEC. Source: Authors.

Table 3. Social risk indicators of CPEC investment activities and explanation.

Category	First indicator	Second indicator	Explanation
Macro-risks	Political	National separatist Forces (D1)	The national separatist forces undermine the unity of the state, violate the fundamental interests of the people, and create and aggravate barriers and disputes among nationalities
		External intervention (D2)	Global superpowers and leading economies interfere with the politics and economies of developing/undeveloped countries
		Complicated neighborhoods (D3)	Different neighborhoods affect the country’s stability and safety to different extents
		Kashmir conflict (D4)	The Kashmir dispute refers to Kashmir territorial disputes between India and Pakistan
	Safety	Natural risks (D5)	A phenomenon caused by irregular changes in natural forces that endangers economic activity, including flood, fire, storm, hail, frost, and others
		Extremism risks (D6)	Extremism risks mainly come from the threats of extreme religious beliefs and extreme environmental protection
		Terrorism (D7)	Violence, terrorism, sabotage, intimidation, and other methods are used to create social panic, endanger public safety, violate people and property, or stress state organs and international organizations to achieve political purposes and ideological ideas and behavior
		Social mass induced by non-government organizations (NGOs) (D8)	Non-governmental organizations are engaged in social welfare undertakings and provide public goods. The areas involved are quite extensive, including environmental protection, social relief, medical, health, education, culture, and other fields
	Law	National law (D9)	National-level law is more macro and fundamental. It involves many aspects, including people’s daily lives, national defense, and international affairs
		Local regulations (D10)	Local laws are localized narrower and are combined with the reality of different regions
Micro-risks	Ethnic benefits	Ethnic minority benefits (D11)	In Pakistan and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, there are many ethnic minorities, mainly Uygurs, Kazakhs, and Tajiks
		Aboriginal benefits (D12)	Native refers to people who lived on the land before colonists came from other places. Their ancestors had been living in a country or a geographic area with different cultural customs
	Religious beliefs	Religious customs (D13)	Religious customs are differences in life tools, clothing, decoration, system, language, and art forms
		Social taboos (D14)	Social taboos are the most important social filter and involve a variety of traditional customs, including specific laws and regulations
		Disputes between politics and religion (D15)	The conflict between church and state can affect social development, economic development, and the direction of national reform
	Economic demands	Income damage induced by land acquisition (D16)	Because of the construction of projects, increasing amounts of land will be either permanently used or temporarily occupied. The affected people may either lose income or experience income damage over a long period
		Unemployment and poverty of affected people (D17)	Because of land acquisition or house demolition, affected persons will lose their original livelihoods or means of production, which may lead to unemployment and poverty
		High consumption burden/low livelihood level (D18)	Moving to new places or other people moving into the area will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of living
	Language and culture	Damage of natural and historic heritage (D19)	Natural and cultural heritage has outstanding universal value. Project development may damage this heritage
		Obstacles of language, culture, and customs (D20)	Different countries have different languages, cultures and customs, even in the same country. Investment activities will address these problems
		Migration and resettlement of affected people/communities (D21)	Resettlement of affected people/communities in new places is difficult and requires a long adjustment period
	Community benefits	Vulnerable groups’ benefit damage (D22)	In social production and life, due to the relatively weak group power, the distribution and acquisition of social wealth is difficult for these groups. As a result, they are in a poorer state
		Public health issues (D23)	The impact of new persons or activities can produce public health issues, such as intermarriage, genetic problems, and gender-related difficulties.
		Community safety (D24)	Community safety is the cornerstone of social security and production safety

Figure 3. Structure for SIA of social risk indicators.

Figure 4. Weight of each factor in target layer.

Figure 5. Weight of each factor in factor layer.

Figure 6. Participants’ type analysis.

Figure 7. Participants’ hometown analysis.

Table 4. Risk intensities and assigned scores.

Risk intensity	Score
Highest risk	>4–5
Higher risk	>3–4
Middle risk	>2–3
Lower risk	>1–2
Lowest risk	0–1

Figure 8. Results of macro-risk level from the Pakistan side.

Figure 9. Results of micro-risk level from the Pakistan side.

Figure 10. Risk results of different participants from Pakistan.