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ABSTRACT
This paper challenges both the ‘Geo-sectarian’ and the ‘New Arab Cold War’ explanations of Middle Eastern politics in the aftermath of the Arab Uprisings. It argues that the omnibalancing behaviour of three wealthy rentier states (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar) in the regional sphere largely reflected the personal calculations of their elites with regard to domestic and regional identity-based threats and opportunities related to the Uprisings. In these calculations, the perceived need to balance against or exploit varied Sunni Islamist groups weighed as heavily as the oft-cited threat of an ascendant Shi’a Iran. But, notwithstanding the increased assertiveness of these Gulf states’ foreign policies over the past decade, ultimately their inconsistency demonstrates underlying volatility and the absence of institutionalised statehood.
Acknowledgements
This article is an output of the Conflict Research Programme, led by the London School of Economics and Political Science, and funded by UK aid from the UK government; however the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1. Lynch, ‘The New Arab Order’.
2. For a full discussion of the intersection between identity politics and the political marketplace, see the introduction to this journal edition by Alex de Waal and Mary Kaldor.
3. Senzai & Bokhari, ‘Geosectarianism & Translocal Politics’, 37
4. Hashemi & Postel, Sectarianisation, 6–7.
5. Proctor: ‘The Mythical Shia Crescent’.
6. Luomi, ‘Sectarian Identities or Geopolitics’, 4.
7. With respect to Saudi, see: Farquhar, Circuits of Faith; and with respect to Iran, see: ‘Wastnidge, ‘Religion and Geopolitics in Iranian Foreign Policy’.
8. Mabon, Saudi Arabia and Iran: soft power rivalry…; Rubin, Islam in the Balance: 96–117; Keynoush, Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes; Mason, ‘Foreign Policy in Iran and Saudi Arabia’.
9. See Wastnidge, ‘The Modalities of Soft Power’ on the effect of the dual power structure on the projection of Iranian foreign policy and public diplomacy.
10. E.g. Abdo, ‘The New Sectarianism’; Fisher, ‘Why Sunnis & Shiites are Fighting’.
11. Gause ‘Beyond Sectarianism’, 5.
12. Gordon & Parkinson, ‘How the Houthis Became Shi’a’.
13. E.g. Al-Sa’ad & Al-Mustafa, ‘Centres of Iranian Influence’; Al-Hassan, ‘The Relationship between Iran and the Arabs’.
14. Rubin, Islam in the Balance: 41–60.
15. Akbarzadeh, ‘The Blurred Line…’: 5.
16. Juneau, ‘Iran’s Policies towards the Houthis in Yemen’.
17. E.g. Watkins, ‘Satellite sectarianisation’
18. Phillips ‘Sectarianism as Plan B’.
19. Salloukh ‘Overlapping Contests’, 33.
20. Ryan ‘The New Arab Cold War’; Valbjørn & Bank ‘The New Arab Cold War’; Khoury ‘The Arab Cold War Revisited’; Gause ‘Beyond Sectarianism’, Hinnebusch 2014, ‘The Foreign Policies of Middle East States’; Hinnebusch ‘The Sectarian Surge…’.
21. Kerr, The Arab Cold War.
22. Valbjorn & Bank, ‘Signs of a New Arab Cold War’.
23. Gause, ‘Beyond Sectarianism’, 1.
24. Hinnebusch, ‘The Sectarian Surge’, 51.
25. Valbjorn & Bank, ‘The New Arab Cold War’, 8.
26. Phillips ‘The Battle for Syria’; Baylouny & Mullins, ‘Cash is King’.
27. Leaf & DeLozier ‘The UAE and Yemen’s Islah’.
28. Gause, ‘Ideologies, Alignments & Underbalancing’.
29. See, for example, Hinnebusch & Ehteshami, ‘The Foreign Policies of Middle East States’; Mason, ‘Foreign Policy in Iran and Saudi Arabia’; Juneau Squandered opportunity; Hinnebusch ‘Beyond Sectarianism’; Wright, ‘Foreign policy in the GCC states’; Salloukh, ‘Overlapping Contests’; & Mabon: Saudi Arabia & Iran: Soft Power Rivalry
30. Hinnebusch & Ehteshami, ‘The Foreign Policies of Middle East States’.
31. Hinnebusch, The international politics of the Middle East, 20.
32. David, ‘Explaining Third World alignment’.
33. Ibid: 236.
34. Nonneman, ‘‘Determinants & Patterns of Saudi Foreign Policy’, 10–13.
35. Ibid, 3.
36. Barnett, Michael. 1998. Dialogues in Arab politics: negotiations in regional order. Columbia University Press.
37. While ‘Islamism’ has become intimately associated with politically active forms of Islam (and, by extension, with criticism of ruling regimes) in reality, the line between Islamic quietism and activism is not discrete.
38. Rubin ‘Islam in the Balance’: 5.
39. See, for example, Nonneman ‘Determinants & Patterns of Saudi Foreign Policy’; Wright ‘Foreign policy in the GCC states’; Ulrichsen, ‘Qatar & the Arab Spring’; Roberts ‘Qatar & the UAE’.
40. Barnett & Gause, ‘Caravans in Opposite Directions’.
41. Baabood ‘Dynamics and determinants of the GCC states’, 266.
42. Young ‘The new politics of interventions’
43. Wehrey ‘The Forgotten Uprising…’
44. Al-Rasheed ‘Sectarianism as Counterrevolution’.
45. Lacroix ‘Saudi Islamists’ & Farquhar, Circuits of Faith
46. Lacroix, ‘Saudi Islamists’
47. Phillips, ‘Sectarianism as plan B’.
48. Abdul-Ahad, ‘Yemen on the Brink’; Fenton- Harvey, ‘Al-Qaeda’s Future’.
49. Partrick ‘Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy’, 26.
50. Simon Mabon, ‘Saudi Arabia and Iran…’: 140–141.
51. Khashan, ‘Bandar bin Sultan’s botched Syrian intervention’.
52. Karim, ‘The Evolution of Saudi foreign policy’: 81.
53. E.g. Roberts, ‘Qatar and the UAE’.
54. Yaakoubi ‘Haftar’s ally UAE…’.
55. Abdul-Ahad, ‘Yemen on the Brink’.
56. Ardemagni, ‘Saudi Arabia and the UAE’.
57. Middle East Eye, ‘Islah Rally in Support of UAE’.
58. Freer ‘Rentier Islamism’, 490.
59. Ibid, 491.
60. Khashan, ‘Unbrotherly’.
61. Chappelle, ‘Abu Dhabi’s Problem with the Muslim Brotherhood’.
62. Roberts, ‘Qatar and the UAE’, 545.
63. Ibishi ‘The UAE’s evolving national security strategy’, 9.
64. Ulrichsen ‘Qatar and the Arab Spring’, 70.
65. Freer, ‘Rentier Islamism’, 487–488.
66. Roberts ‘Qatar and the UAE’, 545.
67. Cherribi ‘Fridays or Rage’.
68. Phillips ‘International Rivalry’, 135.
69. Roberts ‘Qatar and the UAE’: 546.
70. Phillips ‘International Rivalry’, 139.
71. Khalaf & Smith, ‘How Qatar seized control…’.
72. Gaub ‘From Doha with love’, 54
73. Phillips, ‘International Rivalry’, 139.
74. Ulrichsen, ‘Qatar and the Arab Spring’, 70.
75. Sotloff ‘Why the Libyans have fallen out of love with Qatar’.
76. Abdul-Ahad, ‘Yemen on the Brink’.
77. Gaub ‘From Doha with love’, 58.
78. Gause, ‘Beyond Sectarianism’, 8.
79. e.g. Klare ‘Resource Wars’; Colgan ‘Oil and Revolutionary Governments’; Kaynak ‘The Impact of Resource Rents’; Hendrix ‘Oil prices and interstate conflict’.
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Jessica Watkins
Jessica Watkins is a postdoctoral research officer at the Middle East Centre, London School of Economics. She works on the DFID sponsored Conflict Research Programme, assessing regional drivers of conflict in Syria and Iraq. She previously worked on Iraqi politics and security issues at the Rand Corporation.