Unlocking climate finance for social protection: an analysis of the Green Climate Fund

Figures & data

Figure 1. Continuum of ways climate finance engages with social protection. Source: Authors.

Table 1. Thematic coverage, size and selected strategic priorities of the main financial mechanisms of the UNFCCC.

Fund	Thematic coverage	Strategic priorities (selected examples with relevance to social protection)	Overall funding
GEF Trust Fund, LDCF and SCCF (managed by the GEF)	Mitigation (GEF Trust Fund); Adaptation (LDCF); adaptation and technology transfer (SCCF)	The GEF-8 (2022–2026) climate mitigation strategy aims to promote innovation and support enabling policies for mitigation options with systemic impacts. The GEF-8 strategy for the LDCF and SCCF seeks to address systemic barriers to adaptation through transformation including strengthened policy coherence, governance, and knowledge. Improved institutional capacities for the design and implementation of integrated adaptation projects as well as early warning and climate information systems are distinct themes in the strategy.	GEF-8 (GEF Trust Fund): USD 852 million LDCF: USD 1.8 billion SCCF: USD 356 million
Adaptation Fund	Adaptation	The medium-term strategy of the Adaptation Fund (2023–2027) envisages support to programmes with strong potential for innovation and projects that generate evidence for successful innovation. A guiding principle of the Fund is to support country-driven projects based on national sustainable development and poverty reduction strategies.	Over USD 1 billion
GCF	Mitigation, adaptation	The Strategic plan for the GCF (2024–2027) prioritizes, among other activities, funding with a focus on just transitions to achieve economic and non-economic co-benefits, climate information and early warning systems, and activities relevant to averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage including testing novel instruments. Country ownership, contribution to the creation of an enabling environment, sustainable development potential, and impact on the most vulnerable people and communities are prominent elements within the investment framework of the GCF.	USD 13.5 billion (committed)

Source: Authors (based on a review of Adaptation Fund (2022); GEF (2022); GEF (2024); GEF (n.d.); UNFCCC (2006); GCF (2020); GCF (2023); GCF (2024)).

Table 2. Sample selection.

Methodological step	Number of projects
Total projects screened for keywords	243
Total projects with detected one or more keywords	155
Total projects with detected keyword(s) considered not relevant	122
Projects excluded due to insufficient information to determine relevance	7
Total projects considered relevant to the study, out of which:	26
Social protection as a tool and enabler of climate projects	16
Projects that invest in adapting social protection systems to climate change	10

Source: Authors.

Table 3. Summary of results.

Category (number of projects)	Description
Social protection as enabler (12)	Social registries supported the identification of project beneficiaries targeting: food security and hydro-meteorological weather warning services in rural areas (FP026, Madagascar; FP067, Tajikistan – adaptation); access to energy-efficient technology in rural areas (SAP014, Armenia; cross-cutting); and access to adaptation grants in the context of water sector resilience (FP062, Barbados; cross-cutting) National policy frameworks with social protection objectives were used to align projects with national priorities (FP003, Senegal; FP026, Madagascar; FP109, Timor-Leste; FP206, Bangladesh – adaptation) Project activities built upon or created synergies with past/present social protection programmes in relation to productive safety net and adaptive social protection approaches in rural areas with a focus on climate services, food security and natural resource management (FP058, Ethiopia; FP069, Bangladesh; FP074, Burkina Faso – adaptation; FP136, Ethiopia; cross-cutting)
Social protection as instrument (4)	Public work schemes were used to implement disaster risk reduction measures (FP068, Georgia; SAP026, Bangladesh – adaptation) A climate-responsive water tariff to tackle reduced freshwater availability that takes into consideration potential negative price effect on the poor was piloted (FP059, Grenada; adaptation) Targeted subsidies/grants under existing social support schemes were used to promote energy efficiency in the social housing sector (FP010, Armenia; mitigation)
Projects that strengthen social protection systems (7)	Project activities aimed to integrate climate risk into agriculture and rural development programmes (such as productive safety net programmes) with social protection components (FP49, Senegal; SAP007, Zimbabwe; and SAP002, Kyrgyzstan – adaptation; FP201, The Philippines – cross-cutting). Public works schemes and social transfers were used in some projects as tools to implement project activities, which engaged the most vulnerable labour-active people (risks of excluding labour-inactive and constrained people were reflected in some of the proposals). One of the projects makes explicit reference to loss and damage in relation to potential for learning (FP049) Project activities aimed to link social protection with climate services and early warning systems (SAP010, the Philippines; FP215, Multi-country project: Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Vanuatu – adaptation). Through FP215, the GCF enabled the Community Resilience Financing Partnership Facility (established by ADB) to provide finance for the development of climate risk-informed social protection systems in target countries through individual projects with a focus on capacity building (e.g. developing adaptive and shock-responsive social protection systems; provision of technical equipment; and training). Funds may be used to design innovative schemes or to expand existing programmes in the future Project activities aimed at enhancing the institutional and regulatory environment for improved access of low-income households to green and resilient social and affordable housing (FP077, Mongolia; cross-cutting). The proposal highlighted the potential for knowledge and learning including novel policies, instruments and regulations to overcome systemic barriers to social and low-cost housing
Projects that establish innovative social protection mechanism (3)	Project activities aimed at supporting community-based adaptation action through the design of locally defined shock-responsive social protection mechanism (FP184, Vanuatu; adaptation). Activities further sought to generate evidence on the effectiveness of cash transfer mechanisms for responding to climate-related hazards Project activities aimed at developing a social protection instrument linked to environmental protection and restoration initiatives (FP062, Paraguay; FP158, Botswana – cross-cutting): FP062 introduced an additional conditional transfer scheme under the national social protection programme (Tekoporã), to incentivise behavioural change (ecosystem stewardship through reforestation and forest conservation). FP158 aimed to transform an existing public works programme (Botswana Ipelegeng Programme) to support rangelands restoration, improve livestock management and promote ecosystem-based adaptation including through investment in social protection services provided on a collective basis (policies and regulations), a new job creation programme (public works) and skills development. The transformed Ipelegeng job creation programme was expected to help tackle high unemployment and costs of reactive drought relief that persist in the project sites

Source: Authors.

Figure 2. Result areas of GCF projects that invest in adapting social protection systems. Source: Authors.

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