Predictive Validity of the J-SOAP-II: Does Accuracy Differ Across Settings?

Abstract

Court and mental health workers are frequently asked to determine which juvenile sex offenders (JSOs) are most likely to reoffend. One instrument commonly used to guide decision making with JSOs is the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II). However, research utilizing this instrument has often generated contradictory results, perhaps related to the types of samples studied. The current study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of the J-SOAP-II across two samples of JSOs (a medium-security correctional setting versus an unlocked residential sex offender treatment program). Although the overall predictive accuracy for identifying post-release arrests for sexual offenses (i.e., sexual recidivism) was modest (AUC = .64) and not statistically significant, differences emerged with regard to the accuracy of some individual scales and subscales. Similarly, while no significant differences in predictive accuracy were observed between the two study sites, a number of interesting findings were observed. These findings highlight the need to consider risk assessment measures in light of the setting in which they are used in order to maximize predictive accuracy and optimize treatment and dispositional decision making.

Keywords:

• sex offenders
• juveniles
• risk assessment
• J-SOAP-II
• recidivism

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This article was based on the first author's doctoral dissertation research. This study would not have been possible without the assistance of, and permission from, the New Jersey Juvenile Justice Commission, and in particular, Research Director Dr. Michael F. Aloisi.