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International Journal of Construction Management Volume 24, 2024 - Issue 1
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Articles

Accurate estimation of cost and time utilizing risk analysis and simulation (case study: road construction projects in Iran)

Abdorreza Rezaee Arjroodya Department of Civil Engineering, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran;
,
Seyed azim Hosseinia Department of Civil Engineering, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran; Correspondence[email protected]
,
Mahdieh Akhbarib Department of Industrial Engineering, Electronic Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran;
,
Ebrahim Safaa Department of Civil Engineering, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran;
&
Jafar Asadpourc Department of Mathematical, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Pages 19-30 | Received 09 Apr 2022, Accepted 05 Mar 2023, Published online: 17 May 2023
 
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Abstract

Cost and time are essential decision-making factors in the early stages of road construction projects. It has been observed that road construction projects often lack adequate risk analysis before they are scheduled and costed. Also, there is a lack of data in a comprehensive operational plan. The estimated time/cost of the scheduled program (without considering the risks) differs greatly from the time/cost of delivered projects. Risk analysis is essential for preventing enormous losses resulting from delays and cost increases. With the help of an integrated modelling framework, this study examines the effects of risks on the cost/time of road construction based on three delivered projects in Iran. For this purpose, the Delphi method is used to identify the main risks. Next, a questionnaire is developed using the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis method to prioritize critical risks as well as their probability and severity of occurrence. Afterwards, Monte Carlo Simulations and regression models are employed to perform quantitative analysis. On average, the estimated time and cost values of the proposed method differed by only 4% and 6% from the values of the delivered projects, respectively. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed a strong correlation between critical risk occurrence probability and simulated/scheduled time/cost differences. Road project managers can use these findings to estimate the time and cost of projects more accurately. By controlling critical risk probabilities, they can also reduce and control cost overruns and delays.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 Analytical Hierarchy process

2 Atrial natriuretic peptide

3 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

4 Monte Carlo Simulation

5 Fault Tree Analysis

6 Fuzzy Analytical Network Processes

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