Establishment of a prediction model for disease progression within one year in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients

Figures & data

Figure 1. Flow diagram of MM patient enrollment and the study design.

Table 1. Variable assignments.

Variable	Assigned a value of 1	Assigned a value of 0
Age (X1)	≥65 years old	<65 years old
Sex (X2)	Male	Female
DS stage (X3)	Stage III	Stage I, Stage II
ISS stage (X4)	Stage III	Stage I, Stage II
Proportion of plasma cells in BM (X5)	≥0.60	<0.60
Types of targeted drugs^a ≥2 (X6)	Yes	No
LDH (X7)	>250.00 U/L	85.00-250.00 U/L
β2-MG (X8)	>3.00 mg/L	0.80-3.00 mg/L
Serum corrected calcium (X9)	>2.75 mmol/L	≤2.75 mmol/L
Scr (X10)	>104.00 μmol/L	45.00-104.00 μmol/L
NLR (X11)	>3.00	1.00-3.00
HBsAg (X12)	Positive	Negative
Disease state (Y)	Progressive	Nonprogressive

Notes: X is an independent variable, Y is a dependent variable;

^a Targeted drugs include PIs, IMiDs and mAbs.

Table 2. Characteristics of MM patients.

Variables	Progressive Group (n1 = 30)	Nonprogressive Group (n2 = 78)
Age (%)
≥65 years old	13 (43.3)	36 (46.2)
< 65 years old	17 (56.7)	42 (53.8)
Sex (%)
Male	19 (63.3)	44 (56.4)
Female	11 (36.7)	34 (43.6)
DS stage (%)
Stage III	30 (100.0)	68 (87.2)
Stage I, Stage II	0 (0.00)	10 (12.8)
ISS stage (%)
Stage III	19 (63.3)	35 (44.9)
Stage I, Stage II	11 (36.7)	43 (55.1)
Proportion of plasma cells in BM (%)
≥0.60	12 (40.0)	12 (15.4)
<0.60	18 (60.0)	66 (84.6)
Types of targeted drugs≥2 (%)
Yes	7 (23.3)	36 (46.2)
No	23 (76.7.0)	42 (53.8)
LDH (%)
>250.00 U/L	13 (43.3)	14 (17.9)
85.00-250.00 U/L	17 (56.7)	64 (82.1)
β2-MG (%)
>3.00 mg/L	26 (86.7)	58 (74.4)
0.80-3.00 mg/L	4 (13.3)	20 (25.6)
Serum corrected calcium (%)
>2.75 mmol/L	13 (43.3)	9 (11.5)
≤2.75 mmol/L	17 (56.7)	69 (88.5)
Scr (%)
>104.00 μmol/L	17 (56.7)	18 (23.1)
45.00-104.00 μmol/L	13 (43.3)	60 (76.9)
NLR (%)
>3.00	14 (46.7)	20 (25.6)
1.00-3.00	16 (53.3)	58 (74.4)
HBsAg (%)
Positive	7 (23.3)	10 (12.8)
Negative	23 (76.7)	68 (87.2)

Notes: N1 is the total number of people in the progressive group; N2 is the total number of people in the nonprogressive group. The data are presented as the number of cases and composition ratio (%).

Table 3. Univariate logistic regression analysis.

Variable	B	SE	Wald	DOF	p value	OR	OR (95% CI)
Age	−0.114	0.433	0.070	1	0.792	0.892	0.382-2.084
Sex	0.289	0.442	0.426	1	0.514	1.335	0.561-3.176
DS stage	20.385	12710.129	0.000	1	0.999	712709662.5	0.000-
ISS stage	0.752	0.442	2.898	1	0.089	2.122	0.892-5.047
Proportion of plasma cells in BM	1.299	0.487	7.112	1	0.008	3.667	1.411-9.528
Treatment plan	−1.035	0.488	4.506	1	0.034	0.355	0.136-0.924
LDH	1.252	0.472	7.031	1	0.008	3.496	1.386-8.817
β2-MG	0.807	0.596	1.831	1	0.176	2.241	0.696-7.214
Serum corrected calcium	1.769	0.511	11.969	1	0.001	5.863	2.153-15.968
Scr	1.472	0.456	10.422	1	0.001	4.359	1.783-10.655
NLR	0.931	0.449	4.310	1	0.038	2.537	1.053-6.112
HBsAg	0.727	0.549	1.757	1	0.185	2.070	0.706-6.066

Abbreviations: SE, standard error; DOF, degrees of freedom; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval.

Table 4. Multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Variable	B	SE	Wald	DOF	p value	OR	OR (95% CI)
Proportion of plasma cells in BM	0.944	0.612	2.382	1	0.123	2.571	0.775-8.526
Treatment plan	−1.489	0.615	5.869	1	0.015	0.226	0.068-0.753
NLR	0.929	0.570	2.659	1	0.103	2.532	0.829-7.735
LDH	1.239	0.583	4.514	1	0.034	3.452	1.101-10.826
Serum corrected calcium	1.496	0.612	5.984	1	0.014	4.466	1.346-14.811
Scr	0.664	0.575	1.336	1	0.248	1.943	0.630-5.997
Intercept	−2.042	0.455	20.154	1	0.000	1.130

Figure 2. ROC curve analysis diagram of prediction model validation.

Table 5. Prediction model evaluated by the four-cell table.

Prediction Model
Real world	Progression within 1 year	No progression within 1 year	Total
Progression within 1 year	19	11	30
No progression within 1 year	15	63	78
Total	34	74	108