Age and gender voting trends in the 2015 Tanzanian general election

ABSTRACT

In Tanzania, younger voters have been more inclined to support opposition parties than their elders, who have proven relatively reluctant to look beyond the incumbent party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). A ‘gender gap’ also exists within Tanzanian politics. Women are more likely to be pro-CCM than men, who are comparatively open to a change of government. Based on qualitative data collected in Tanzania between 2013 and 2015, this article looks to explain these dynamics. Regarding the age-related trend, it argues that young people tend to evaluate CCM less positively than older people due to the difference in their levels of experience of the party’s evolving administrative style. They are also more likely to view the opposition favourably due to higher exposure to their message and a greater reluctance to accept attempts to discredit them. Concerning the gender gap, it contends that women’s generally lower access to information results in their taking a less critical attitude towards CCM. They are also more likely than men to be dissuaded from voting for the opposition due to fear of potential violence. Furthermore, new patterns of political patronage have seen women targeted in CCM’s vote buying exercises.

KEYWORDS:

• Tanzania
• politics
• voter behaviour
• age
• gender

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Thomas Molony, Hugh Lamarque, Marie-Aude Fouéré, Alexander Makulilo, and two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments on drafts.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. The Citizen, “Women, Youth Determine Presidency.” Figures could not be sourced from the electoral commission directly as 2015 data are yet to be made available.

2. Ibid.; “Tanzania's Youth Prepare”; Deutsche Welle, “Tanzania Election.”

3. ‘Gender gap’ is preferred over ‘gender-related trend’ due to its common usage in political science literature.

4. The Citizen, “Women, Youth Determine Presidency.”

5. For example, in the UK women are more likely to vote Labour than men and old people are more likely to vote Conservative than young people, while in the US women are more likely to vote Democrat than men and old people are more likely to vote Republican than young people.

6. See, for example, Bratton, Bhavnani, and Chen, “Voting Intentions in Africa”; O’Gorman, “Why the CCM Won't Lose”; Young, “Support You Can Count On?” and Wantchekon, “Clientelism and Voting Behavior.”

7. A contentious constitutional review process resulted in the formation of an opposition coalition called Ukawa (Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi/Coalition of Defenders of the People's Constitution). Consisting of Chadema, CUF, the National Convention for Construction and Reform, and the National League for Democracy, the coalition ran unified candidates during the 2015 elections.

8. Afrobarometer, Tanzania Round 6 Data.

9. This is Twaweza's preferred translation.

10. Twaweza, “Let the People Speak.”

11. Ipsos, Ipsos SPEC.

12. Inglehart and Norris, “Developmental Theory.”

13. Babeiya, “Multiparty Elections,” 90.

14. Fouéré, Remembering Nyerere.

15. Nyerere, The Arusha Declaration; Nyerere, Education for Self-Reliance and Nyerere, Socialism and Rural Development.

16. Hyden, Beyond Ujamaa; Scott, Seeing Like a State, 223–61 and Schneider, Government of Development.

17. See also Hyden, Beyond Ujamaa, 151 and Kamat, “This Is Not Our Culture!”

18. Blommaert, “Language and Nationalism” and Miguel, “Tribe or Nation?”

19. Nyerere, Education for Self-Reliance and Campbell, “Nationalism, Ethnicity and Religion,” 107.

20. Bjerk, Building a Peaceful Nation.

21. Robinson, “National versus Ethnic Identity.”

22. Gray, “Grand Corruption in Tanzania,” 16–17.

23. Ibid.

24. Twaweza, “Perceptions of Corruption.”

25. World Bank, “World Development Indicators.”

26. Interview, Dodoma Region, June 2014.

27. Afrobarometer, Tanzania Round 6 Data.

28. Help the Aged, “AgeWatch Report Card”.

29. For a summary of media bias in Tanzania see Makulilo, “Unleveled Playfield,” 101–2.

30. One in five Tanzanians now has access to the internet. See European Union Election Observation Mission, Tanzania Final Report 2015, 26.

31. The Citizen, “Makamba Tears into Lowassa.”

32. In Zanzibar, this trend is reversed, with CCM more associated with anti-social behaviour such as drinking.

33. Interview, Mwanza, December 2013.

34. For a discussion of the complex evolution of gender roles in Tanzania see Bryceson, “Gender Relations” and Lal, “Militants, Mothers.”

35. For a discussion of women's income-generating activities, see Tripp, Changing the Rules, 106–28.

36. Afrobarometer, Tanzania Round 6 Data.

37. Interview, Mwanza, December 2013.

38. The party itself appeared to acknowledge its predicament during the campaign by side-lining key figures from the Kikwete administration and presenting Magufuli almost as if he were an opposition candidate.

39. UNESCO, Tanzania Education Factsheet.

40. Buchert, Education in Development.

41. See also Wedgwood, “Education and Poverty Reduction,” 391.

42. Reuters, “Early Marriage.”

43. Twaweza, “Let the People Speak.”

44. Interview, Dodoma Region, July 2014.

45. Schneider, “Visions of Tanzanian Socialism.”

46. The Citizen, “Tanzania Needs Domestic Violence Act.”

47. For an example, see Phillips, “Pater Rules Best,” 111.

48. This also occurred in previous elections. See Babeiya, “Multiparty Elections,” 94–5.

49. See Kiunsi, “Money and Politics.”

50. Inglehart and Norris, “Developmental Theory”; Campbell, “Women Voters”; Abendschön and Steinmetz, “The Gender Gap Revisited” and Norris, “Mobilising the ‘Women's Vote.’”

Additional information

Funding

This work was financially supported by the French Institute for Research in Africa (IFRA) in Nairobi, Kenya, and the University of Edinburgh’s Global Development Academy.