COTECHMO: The Constructive Technology Development Cost Model

Abstract

A detailed analysis of the available literature and the aerospace manufacturing industry has identified a lack of cost estimation techniques to forecast advanced manufacturing technology development effort and hardware cost. To respond, this article presents two parametric ‘Constructive Technology Development Cost Models’ (COTECHMO). The COTECHMO Resources model is the first and is capable of forecasting aerospace advanced manufacturing technology development effort in person-hours. When statistically analyzed, this model had an outstanding R-squared value of 98% and a high F-value of 106.65, validating model significance. The general model accuracy was tested with 53% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The second, the COTECHMO Direct Cost model is capable of forecasting the development cost of the aerospace advanced manufacturing technology process hardware. This model had an inferior R-squared value of 76% and an F-value of 5.59, although each was still valid to determine model significance. However, the Direct Cost model accuracy exceeded the Resources model, with 93% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The article concludes with recommendations for future research, including suggestions for further enhancement of each model verification and validation, within and outside of the supporting organization.

Notes

Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/ucap.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mark B. Jones

Mark B. Jones currently holds a M.Eng. (Hons) degree in manufacturing engineering and management from The University of Nottingham. He is currently a Ph.D. researcher at Cranfield University studying advanced manufacturing technology forecasting techniques for aerospace organizations. He specializes in cost estimation, decision-making, manufacturing technology maturity, advanced manufacturing technology development, civil aerospace manufacture, and research portfolio management.

Phil F. Webb

Phil F. Webb, from Cranfield University, is the Royal Academy of Engineering and Airbus Professor of Aerostructure Design and the head of the Aero-structure Assembly and Systems Installation Research Group. He has a B.Eng. in electronic engineering and a Ph.D. in manufacturing. His main research interest is the automation of aero structure assembly and he has published widely on this subject and worked with some of the world’s companies, including Airbus, Bombardier Aerospace, BAE Systems, and Rolls Royce.

Mark D. Summers

Mark D. Summers is the Head of Manufacturing Engineering Research Wing CoE at Airbus in the UK. Mark’s expertise lies in the research of automated assembly solutions in aircraft assembly. He is currently studying for an Eng.D. at The University of Nottingham in manufacturing engineering and operations management.

Paul Baguley

Paul Baguley is a Research Fellow in Cost Engineering at Cranfield University. He has a Ph.D. in Cost Model Development from DeMontfort University. Paul also has an honors degree in Mathematics from UMIST and a Masters degree in Computer Integrated Manufacture and Management from Huddersfield University. Paul has worked in Cost Engineering research for over 15 years.