Land use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location of study area.

Figure 2. Population growth in Tiruchirappalli city during 1871–2011 [National Informatics Centre].

Table 1. List of the satellite data used in the study.

Sl. no.	Data product	Imagery date	Resolution (m)	Path/row
1	IRS-1D PAN	19/10/1998	5.8	(101–066)
2	IRS-P6 LISS IV	22/02/2006	5.8	(101–112)
3	CARTOSAT-1 PAN	02/05/2009	2.5	(553–345)

Table 2. The area statistics from 1998 to 2006.

	Area (ha)
LU/LC classes	1998	2006
Waste	4501	3470
Vegetation	565	537
Water	797	778
Grass land	3153	2491
Built-up land	2531	5048
Agricultural	1716	938

Figure 3. Classified 1998 IRS image of LU/LC in Tiruchirappalli city.

Figure 4. Classified 2006 IRS image of LU/LC in Tiruchirappalli city.

Table 3. LU/LC transitional matrix between 1998 and 2006 (ha).

1998	2006
	Waste	Vegetation	Water	Grass land	Built-up land	Agricultural
Waste	20.18	2.26	2.03	7.81	10.79	1.94
Vegetation	1.63	0.37	0.39	1.44	1.15	0.66
Water	1.39	0.30	2.96	1.75	0.98	0.59
Grass land	7.99	2.24	1.37	8.55	8.04	3.34
Built-up land	6.84	1.31	1.15	4.71	10.14	1.15
Agricultural	3.50	1.21	1.03	5.36	3.21	2.85

Table 4. Matrix of primary transition probability of LU/LC types in Tiruchirappalli city during 1998–2006.

LU/LC classes	Waste	Vegetation	Water	Grass land	Built-up land	Agricultural
Waste	0.448	0.050	0.045	0.174	0.240	0.043
Vegetation	0.289	0.066	0.069	0.254	0.204	0.116
Water	0.174	0.037	0.372	0.219	0.123	0.075
Grass land	0.254	0.071	0.043	0.271	0.255	0.106
Built-up land	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000
Agricultural	0.204	0.071	0.060	0.313	0.187	0.166

Note: In practice, the built-up area seldom transfers to other land uses. Thus, the transition probabilities of the built-up state to other states are given as ‘zeros’.

Figure 5. Comparison of LU/LC change in Tiruchirappalli from 1998 to 2006.

Table 5. Change trend of LU/LC types simulated by Markov model.

Year	LU/LC classes
	Waste	Vegetation	Water	Grass land	Built-up land	Agricultural
1998	4501	565	797	3153	2531	4501
2006	3470	537	778	2491	5048	3470
2014	2699	488	654	1904	6816	2699
2022	2091	376	523	1472	8260	2091

Figure 6. Simulated LU/LC change from 1998 to 2022 in ha.

Table 6. Validation of LU/LC change forecast based on Markov model.

LU/LC classes	Chi-square test
	Simulated value (O)	Actual value (E)	(O−E)	(O−E)^.2	(O−E)^2/E
Waste	30.25	30.83	0.58	0.34	0.01
Vegetation	5.57	5.27	−0.30	0.09	0.02
Water	8.01	7.70	−0.31	0.10	0.01
Grass land	22.91	22.43	−0.49	0.24	0.01
Built-up land	58.88	59.92	1.04	1.07	0.02
Agricultural	6.98	6.47	−0.52	0.27	0.04

Note: χ² = ∑(O−E)²/E = 0.106; degree of freedom = 5 and χ² _0.05 (5) = 11.07.