Does vaccination elicit risk compensation? Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic in France

Figures & data

Figure 1. Vaccine rollout and mandated measures in France.

Figure 2. Distribution of protective behaviours according to initial coding.

Table 1. Behaviour survey questions and responses.

Behaviour	Question	Response
	Over the past few days have you adopted the following protective measures?
Wear a mask	- Wearing a mask in public	Yes, systematically	Yes, often	Yes, sometimes	No, never
Avoid social gatherings	- Avoiding face-to-face gatherings and meetings with people who don’t live with you/ in the same household as you (family or social gatherings, drinks or discussions with neighbours)	Yes, systematically	Yes, often	Yes, sometimes	No, never
Avoid physical contact	- Greeting people without shaking hands and avoiding hugging and kissing people not from your household	Yes, systematically	Yes, often	Yes, sometimes	No, never
Hand hygiene	- Washing your hands very regularly with soap or using hand sanitiser	Yes, systematically	Yes, often	Yes, sometimes	No, never

Figure 3. Vaccination status during the vaccine rollout in France, February – September, 2021.

Figure 4. Engagement in protective behaviours according to vaccination status.

Table 2. Participant vaccination status according to age, risk factors (chronic illness), socio-demographic characteristics and survey wave (February – September, 2021).

Survey date	16 February (N = 2,000)				17 March (N = 2,001)				23 April (N = 2,001)				19 May (N = 2,000)
Vaccination status	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention
Sex
Female	1.5% (16)	1.8% (19)	51.9% (551)	44.8% (476)	3.3% (35)	6.6% (71)	47.5% (510)	42.6% (457)	7.5% (81)	17.4% (189)	39.0% (423)	36.1% (392)	18.4% (202)	22.8% (250)	30.6% (336)	28.2% (309)
Male	1.5% (14)	2.7% (25)	60.1% (564)	35.7% (335)	5.2% (48)	7.8% (72)	52.9% (491)	34.2% (317)	12.5% (114)	21.9% (201)	40.4% (370)	25.2% (231)	24.3% (219)	32.9% (297)	24.8% (224)	18.1% (163)
Age
18-24	2.4% (4)	.6% (1)	34.1% (56)	62.8% (103)	2.9% (5)	.6% (1)	35.9% (61)	60.6% (103)	2.6% (4)	3.2% (5)	53.2% (82)	40.9% (63)	2.6% (4)	13.1% (20)	49% (75)	35.3% (54)
25-34	.7% (2)	1.4% (4)	38.9% (112)	59% (170)	1.4% (4)	1.4% (4)	37.7% (104)	59.4% (164)	5.5% (17)	6.5% (20)	37.4% (116)	50.6% (157)	8.2% (22)	13.4% (36)	43.7% (117)	34.7% (93)
35-49	.8%(4)	1.1% (6)	52.6% (279)	45.5% (241)	1.1% (6)	2.7% (14)	52.5% (276)	43.7% (230)	4% (21)	6.6% (35)	51% (270)	38.4% (203)	11.8% (64)	21.3% (116)	35.8% (195)	31.1% (169)
50-64	2.3% (12)	1.3% (7)	59.7% (312)	36.7% (192)	5.3% (28)	8.5% (45)	49.4% (262)	36.8% (195)	6.8% (35)	22.7% (117)	43.6% (225)	26.9% (139)	17.9% (98)	35.7% (196)	24.2% (133)	22.2% (122)
65+	1.6% (8)	5.3% (26)	72% (356)	21.2% (105)	8.0% (40)	15.8% (79)	59.7% (298)	16.4% (82)	24% (118)	43.3% (213)	20.3% (100)	12.4% (61)	47.9% (233)	36.8% (179)	8.2% (40)	7% (34)
Chronic disease
No	1.2% (15)	1.6% (19)	52.3% (632)	44.9% (543)	3.4% (43)	4.3% (54)	48.7% (615)	43.6% (551)	6% (73)	15.5% (187)	43.1% (521)	35.4% (428)	15% (186)	26.5% (328)	32.5% (403)	26% (323)
Yes	1.9% (15)	3.2% (25)	61% (483)	33.9% (268)	5.4% (40)	12.1% (89)	52.3% (386)	30.2% (223)	15.4% (122)	25.6% (203)	34.3% (272)	24.6% (195)	30.9% (235)	28.8% (219)	20.7% (157)	19.6% (149)
History of COVID-like symptoms
Yes	2.2% (8)	1.3% (5)	56.6% (210)	39.9% (148)	2.2% (8)	5.0% (18)	47.5% (170)	45.3% (162)	4.7% (19)	14.8% (60)	44.0% (178)	36.5% (148)	15.9% (65)	22.1% (90)	36.8% (150)	25.3% (103)
No	1.4% (22)	2.4% (39)	55.6% (905)	40.7% (663)	4.6% (75)	7.6% (125)	50.6% (831)	37.3% (612)	11.0% (176)	20.7% (330)	38.5% (615)	29.8% (475)	22.4% (356)	28.7% (457)	25.8% (410)	23.2% (369)
Completed secondary school
Yes	1.6% (22)	2.6% (36)	57.1% (806)	38.8% (547)	4.6% (65)	6.9% (97)	51.6% (728)	37.0% (522)	10.6% (150)	19.3% (275)	41.2% (586)	28.9% (411)	21.1% (304)	27.3% (393)	29.1% (419)	22.5% (324)
No	1.4% (8)	1.4% (8)	52.5% (309)	44.8% (264)	3.1% (18)	7.8% (46)	46.35% (273)	42.8% (252)	7.8% (45)	19.9% (115)	35.8% (207)	36.6% (212)	20.9% (117)	27.5% (154)	25.2% (141)	26.4% (148)
Socioeconomic status
High	1.2% (3)	.4% (1)	43.7% (108)	54.7% (135)	2.6% (6)	1.8% (4)	45.2% (103)	50.4% (115)	2.0% (5)	5.3% (13)	46.7% (114)	45.9% (112)	9.9% (25)	16.3% (41)	38.9% (98)	34.9% (88)
Low	.7% (6)	1.2% (10)	49.2% (409)	48.9% (407)	2.5% (21)	6.3% (53)	45.3% (380)	45.8% (384)	5.1% (40)	15.5% (122)	40.0% (315)	39.5% (311)	15.6% (119)	24.5% (187)	30.2% (230)	29.7% (226)
Inactive	2.3% (21)	3.6% (33)	64.9% (598)	29.2% (269)	6.0% (56)	9.2% (86)	55.4% (518)	29.4% (275)	15.5% (150)	26.3% (255)	37.6% (364)	20.6% (200)	28.1% (277)	32.4% (319)	23.5% (232)	16.0% (158)
Survey date	28 June (N = 2,000)				21 July (N = 2,000)				7 September (N = 2,001)
Vaccination status	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention	1 dose	2 doses	Intention	No intention
Sex
Female	36.6% (398)	23.7% (258)	14.2% (154)	25.6% (278)	57.7% (634)	13.8% (152)	11.6% (127)	16.9% (185)	75.0% (817)	6.1% (66)	3.7% (40)	15.2% (166)
Male	42.3% (386)	26.2% (239)	12.5% (114)	19.0% (173)	64.2% (579)	11.5% (104)	9.5% (86)	14.8% (133)	80.3% (732)	7.4% (67)	2.5% (23)	9.9% (90)
Age
18-24	10.1% (17)	33.7% (57)	23.7% (40)	32.5% (55)	37.4% (55)	22.4% (33)	16.3% (24)	23.8% (35)	67.8% (141)	11.1% (23)	8.7% (18)	12.5% (26)
25-34	15.5% (51)	27.1% (89)	18.3% (60)	39% (128)	40.7% (121)	18.9% (56)	16.5% (49)	23.9% (71)	61.5% (163)	13.2% (35)	4.2% (11)	21.1% (56)
35-49	25.3% (137)	29.9% (162)	18.9% (102)	25.9% (140)	49.5% (278)	18.7% (105)	12.6% (71)	19.2% (108)	74.3% (401)	8.7% (47)	3.1% (17)	13.9% (75)
50-64	49.4% (266)	24.1% (130)	9.3% (50)	17.1% (92)	72.4% (402)	7.2% (40)	8.1% (45)	12.3% (68)	83% (433)	4% (21)	2.1% (11)	10.9% (57)
65+	73.8% (313)	13.9% (59)	3.8% (16)	8.5% (36)	81.3% (357)	5% (22)	5.5% (24)	8.2% (36)	88.2% (411)	1.5% (7)	1.3% (6)	9% (42)
Chronic disease
No	30.2% (342)	28.6% (324)	15.6% (177)	25.6% (290)	56.6% (633)	14.2% (159)	12.4% (139)	16.8% (188)	74.6% (851)	6.9% (79)	4.3% (49)	14.2% (162)
Yes	51% (442)	20% (173)	10.5% (91)	18.6% (161)	65.8% (580)	11% (97)	8.4% (74)	14.8% (130)	81.2% (698)	6.3% (54)	1.6% (14)	10.9% (94)
History of COVID-like symptoms
Yes	34.5% (140)	20.4% (83)	21.9% (89)	23.2% (94)	52.5% (232)	15.4% (68)	13.6% (60)	18.6% (82)	75.6% (303)	9.0% (36)	5.2% (21)	10.2% (41)
No	40.4% (644)	26.0% (414)	11.2% (179)	22.4% (357)	63.0% (981)	12.1% (188)	9.8% (153)	15.2% (236)	77.9% (1,246)	6.1% (97)	2.6% (42)	13.4% (215)
Completed secondary school
Yes	40.3% (568)	25.0% (353)	13.0% (183)	21.7% (306)	61.8% (885)	13.3% (191)	9.8% (141)	15.1% (216)	79.4% (1,099)	5.9% (82)	3.4% (47)	11.3% (157)
No	36.6% (216)	24.4% (144)	14.4% (85)	24.6% (145)	57.9% (328)	11.5% (65)	12.7% (72)	18.0% (102)	73.1% (450)	8.3% (51)	2.6% (16)	16.1% (99)
Socioeconomic status
High	18.5% (46)	27.7% (69)	20.5% (51)	33.3% (83)	38.8% (92)	21.5% (51)	13.9% (33)	25.7% (61)	69.3% (169)	9.4% (23)	6.1% (15)	15.2% (37)
Low	32.7% (265)	25.9% (210)	14.8% (120)	26.6% (216)	52.7% (433)	14.5% (119)	13.7% (113)	19.1% (157)	72.4% (585)	7.7% (62)	3.1% (25)	16.8% (136)
Inactive	50.3% (473)	23.2% (218)	10.3% (97)	16.2% (152)	73.1% (688)	9.1% (86)	7.1% (67)	10.6% (100)	83.8% (795)	5.1% (48)	2.4% (23)	8.7% (83)

Table 3. Odds ratios of protective behaviour according to vaccination status.

Survey date	Vaccination status	Wear a mask in public		Avoid social gatherings		Hand Hygiene		Avoid physical contact
		Non-adjusted	Adjusted	Non-adjusted	Adjusted	Non-adjusted	Adjusted	Non-adjusted	Adjusted
16 Feb (N = 2,000)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	.26*** [.12,.58]	.22*** [.10,.50]	.67 [.32,1.39]	.68 [.32,1.44]	.57 [.27,1.18]	.53 [.25,1.14]	.23*** [.11,.50]	.23*** [.10,.50]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	.58 [.25,1.34]	.56 [.24,1.32]	1.88* [.99,3.58]	1.76* [.91,3.40]	.93 [.49,1.77]	.97 [.50,1.89]	.70 [.32,1.55]	.60 [.26,1.36]
No intention to vaccinate	.35*** [.27,.45]	.34*** [.26,.45]	.55*** [.45,.66]	.63*** [.52,.77]	.62*** [.51,.74]	.62*** [.51,.76]	.32*** [.25,.40]	.36*** [.29,.46]
17 March (N = 2,001)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	.69 [.35,1.39]	.66 [.33,1.34]	1.86*** [1.18,2.96]	1.70** [1.06,2.73]	1.02 [.63,1.65]	1.02 [.62,1.68]	.87 [.48,1.56]	.78 [.43,1.42]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	.71 [.41,1.23]	.62 [.35,1.10]	1.19 [.84,1.69]	.96 [.67,1.37]	1.24 [.84,1.83]	1.13 [.75,1.69]	1.05 [.65,1.71]	.86 [.52,1.41]
No intention to vaccinate	.26*** [.20,.34]	.26*** [.20,.35]	.62*** [.51,.75]	.73*** [.60,.90]	.69*** [.57,.84]	.73*** [.59,.89]	.32*** [.26,.40]	.37*** [.29,.47]
23 April (N = 2,001)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	.90 [.56,1.42]	.75 [.46,1.24]	1.26 [.92,1.74]	1.07 [.76,1.51]	1.31 [.92,1.85]	1.20 [.83,1.75]	1.64* [.99,2.70]	1.13 [.67,1.93]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	1.06 [.72,1.54]	.84 [.56,1.27]	1.03 [.81,1.32]	.82 [.63,1.08]	1.08 [.84,1.41]	.94 [.70,1.25]	1.09 [.78,1.54]	.69* [.48,1.01]
No intention to vaccinate	.37*** [.28,.49]	.36*** [.27,.47]	.54*** [.43,.66]	.57*** [.46,.71]	.71*** [.57,.89]	.71*** [.57,.89]	.33*** [.26,.43]	.34*** [.26,.44]
19 May (N = 2,000)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	1.86*** [1.23,2.80]	1.54* [.99,2.41]	1.43*** [1.11,1.84]	1.03 [.77,1.37]	1.54*** [1.17,2.03]	1.47** [1.07,2.00]	2.01*** [1.47,2.74]	1.28 [.90,1.81]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	1 [.72,1.39]	.92 [.65,1.31]	1. [.98,1.58]	.97 [.75,1.25]	1.09 [.85,1.39]	1.06 [.81,1.38]	1.79*** [1.36,2.37]	1.32* [.98,1.79]
No intention to vaccinate	.40*** [.30,.55]	.37*** [.27,.51]	.72** [.56,.93]	.69*** [.53,.89]	.62*** [.49,.80]	.58*** [.45,.75]	.62*** [.48,.80]	.57*** [.44,.75]
28 June (N = 2,000)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	1.57*** [1.15,2.14]	1.38* [.99,1.94]	1.23 [.92,1.64]	.94 [.69,1.28]	1.10 [.82,1.46]	1.07 [.78,1.47]	1.58*** [1.17,2.12]	1.17 [.85,1.62]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	1.19 [.86,1.66]	1.18 [.84,1.64]	1.07 [.79,1.46]	1.01 [.73,1.38]	.95 [.70,1.30]	.96 [.70,1.31]	1.33* [.97,1.83]	1.27 [.92,1.75]
No intention to vaccinate	.62*** [.45,.86]	.59*** [.43,.82]	.73* [.53,1]	.72** [.52,1]	.70** [.52,.96]	.67** [.49,.93]	.70** [.51,.95]	.67** [.49,.92]
21 July (N = 2,000)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	1.11 [.81,1.53]	.97 [.70,1.35]	.89 [.65,1.21]	.72** [.53,.99]	1.11 [.82,1.50]	1.03 [.75,1.40]	1.49*** [1.11,2.01]	1.23 [.91,1.68]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	1.13 [.76,1.68]	1.17 [.78,1.75]	1.01 [.69,1.48]	1.05 [.71,1.54]	1.14 [.79,1.66]	1.18 [.80,1.73]	.98 [.68,1.42]	1.02 [.70,1.48]
No intention to vaccinate	.74 [.51,1.06]	.74 [.51,1.07]	.78 [.54,1.13]	.78 [.54,1.13]	.78 [.55,1.11]	.79 [.55,1.13]	.87 [.61,1.23]	.86 [.60,1.23]
7 Sept (N = 2,001)	Vaccinated with 2 doses	1.03 [.60,1.79]	.85 [.48,1.50]	.65 [.39,1.09]	.54** [.32,.91]	1.07 [.64,1.79]	.91 [.54,1.55]	1.17 [.70,1.95]	.91 [.53,1.54]
Vaccinated with 1 dose	.48** [.25,.91]	.48** [.25,.93]	.55* [.30,1.03]	.54* [.29,1.02]	.63 [.34,1.16]	.65 [.35,1.22]	.64 [.35,1.16]	.65 [.35,1.21]
No intention to vaccinate	.65 [.36,1.18]	.54** [.29,.99]	.62* [.35,1.08]	.54** [.30,.95]	.80 [.46,1.39]	.66 [.37,1.17]	.84 [.48,1.46]	.68 [.38,1.21]

Note: Odds ratio [95% confidence interval] in binary logistic regressions. Intention to be vaccinated served as reference. Adjusted regressions included control variables: age categories (18-24 as reference) 25–34 (yes = 1; no = 0), 35–49 (yes = 1; no = 0), 50–64 (yes = 1; no = 0), 65+ (yes = 1; no = 0); gender (female = 1; male = 0); and suffering from a chronic disease (yes = 1; no = 0). ***p < .01,**p < .05,*p < .1.