https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1362-6881
Figures & data
Figure 1. Methodology. (a). Calculated BCG vaccination coverage in people with 65 y or more based on Germany’s population data in the States of Former East and West Germany. (b). Algorithm implemented with the CoMo model to calculate first the Heterologous Vaccine efficacy of BCG in former East Germany in the context of NPIs and then to simulate a scenario in former West Germany incorporating a BCG campaign before the onset of the pandemic
Figure 2. Projected COVID-19 mortality reduction in former West German states with hypothetical preexisting BCG-vaccine coverage of ≥ 65 y population equivalent to former East German states (assuming 5% heterologous-efficacy and 85% coverage). Red = modeled actual COVID-19 mortality data (median); Green = modeled hypothetical COVID-19 mortality (median); Blue = 25th, 75th quantiles for modeled hypothetical mortality (with 0.01 SD “Gaussian noise” for key parameters)
