Opportunities for enhancing the climate resilience of coffee production through improved crop, soil and water management

Figures & data

Figure 1. Global green coffee bean production (t yr⁻¹), 2010 to 2019 by country of origin (FAOSTAT 2019).

Figure 2. Systematic review process. *search strings: “climate change” and “adaptation” or “mitigation” or “management” and “coffee”.

Figure 3. (a) Cumulative publications for selected coffee research themes between 2007 and 2021; (b) Total papers published focussing on key production regions or globally; (c) Total papers on Arabica and Robusta varieties.

Figure 4. Climate change impacts on coffee production systems.

Table 1. Predicted decrease in land suitable for Arabica cultivation (%) for selection of leading coffee producers. Area harvested from FAOSTAT (2019).

Country	Area harvested for coffee (ha)*	Decrease in land suitable for coffee cultivation (%)	Time period	Reference
Nicaragua	180,416	40	2015–2050	(Baca et al. 2014; Quiroga et al. 2020)
Guatemala	308,217	19	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Vietnam	622,637	25	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Mexico	629,300	29–60	2010–2050	(Schroth et al. 2009)
		29	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Ethiopia	758,523	65–100 38–90	2020–2080	(Davis et al. 2012) (local and area analyses)
		11	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Indonesia	1,258,032	21–37	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Brazil	1,823,403	25	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)

Figure 5. IUCN categorization of extinction risk to known coffee species. Critically endangered (CE), endangered (E), vulnerable (V), near-threatened (NT), least concern (LC), data not available (DA). Data from (Davis et al. 2019).

Table 2. Predicted altitudinal changes in land suitability for growing Arabica for a selection of leading coffee producing countries.

Country	Current altitude suitable for Arabica cultivation (masl)	Estimated future optimal altitude for Arabica suitability (masl)	Time period	Reference
Mexico	400–2000	800–2500	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Brazil	400–1500	800–1600	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
India	400–1500	700–1800	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Ethiopia	400–2000	800–2500	2015–2050	(Gidey et al. 2020; Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
South Africa	500–1700	700–2000	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Madagascar	500–1700	700–2000	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Indonesia	500–2000	800–2300	2015–2050	(Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015)
Nicaragua	800–1200	1200–1600	2012–2050	(Läderach et al. 2017)
Tanzania	1000–2300	1150–2500	2015–2060	(Craparo et al. 2015)

Figure 6. Potential integrated ecological and economic benefits from agroforestry for coffee production including increased (a) above and below ground species biodiversity; (b) temperature stabilization; (c); wind speed reduction; (d) carbon storage; (e) diversified income from non-timber products(.

FAOSTAT. (2019). Crop and livestock products. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/i4573e/i4573e.pdf [Accessed 15 June 2021].

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