Preparation for the next pandemic: challenges in strengthening surveillance

Figures & data

Table 1. Number of micro-organisms in the environment according to literature.

Microorganisms	Soil (g^−1)	Ocean (L^−1)	Atmosphere (m^−3)
Bacteria	10^7–10^9 [6]	10^9 [7]	10^2–10^6 CFU [8]
Viruses	10^3–10^9 [9]	10^10 [7]	10^5^,^a [8]
Fungi	10^5–10^6 [6]	Data not available	10^2–10^3 spores [8]

^aVirus-like particles detected by fluorescence microscopy.

Table 2. Summary of significant epidemics and pandemics occurred in human history.

Pathogens	Epidemics/pandemics	Years	Estimated number of death	Details	Major reason(s) for pandemic development	Possible zoonotic origin of pandemics
Yersinia pestis	Plague of Justinian	541–543	100 million	Based on isolation of microbial DNA in dental pulp specimens	Poor environmental hygiene	Rodents
	Black Death	1347–1352	200 million	Followed by multiple waves in Europe
	Third plague pandemic	1855–1959	12 million	Originated from Yunnan in China, then spread to Hong Kong in 1894 Discovery of Yersinia pestis as the culprit of plague
Vibrio cholerae Classical biotype	Six pandemic of cholera	1817–1824 1826–1837 1846–1860 1863–1875 1881–1896 1899–1923	Unknown	Originated from India then spread via trade route worldwide	Poor environmental hygiene, Increased human travel	Potential element of transmission through consumption of aquatic animals
Vibrio cholerae El Tor biotype	Seventh pandemic of cholera	1961–now	Unknown	Originated from Indonesia
Poliovirus	Polio epidemics	1900–1950s	More than 16,000	Spreading around the world, with major epidemics in the United States in 1916 and 1952. Situation improves after introduction of polio vaccines	Delayed in exposure due to improved sanitation, infection in older children leading to more severe presentation	Nil
Influenza A/H3N8	Russian flu	1889–1895	1 million	Predicted to be H3N8 based on serological and epidemiological data	Virus ability for gene reassortment, Increase in human travel	Unknown
Influenza A/H1N1	Spanish flu	1918–1919	50 million	Pandemic started in United States, then spread worldwide	Virus ability of gene reassortment and zoonotic spillover, Increase in human travel and poor hygienic condition due to World War I, Extreme weather	Suspected bird and pig
Influenza A/H2N2	Asian flu	1957–1959	1–2 million	Derived from 1918 virus by acquisition of three new avian gene segments (HA, NA, and PB1 polymerase) by reassortment [15]	Virus ability of gene reassortment, Increase in human travel	Suspected bird and pig
Influenza A/H3N2	Hong Kong flu	1968–1970	0.5–2 million	Antigenic shift from A/H2N2. Avian origin of PB1 leads to increase in replication and transmissibility, with new HA evading pre-existing immunity in human [16].		Suspected bird and pig
Influenza A/H1N1	Swine flu	2009	Laboratory confirmed: 18631. Estimated between 148,000 and 249,000 [36]	Triple gene reassortment originating from human A/H3N2 (PB1 polymerase), avian (PB2, and PA polymerase), and swine (H1, N1, NP, Matrix, and non-structural protein) influenza viruses [17]		Potential swine origin. Triple reassortment from human, avian, and swine influenza virus
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)	AIDS	1981–now	40 million	First case of AIDS reported in June 1981	Long incubation period (Infectious during asymptomatic phase)	African primates (multiple cross species transmission)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)	COVID-19	2019–now	6.9 million	First case of COVID-19 described in December, 2019 in Wuhan, China Emergence of different variants during pandemics	Infectious during asymptomatic phase, RNA virus with airborne transmissibility and frequent mutations	Bat, possible unidentified intermediate host

Vassileva M, Malusa E, Eichler-Lobermann B, et al. Aspegillus terreus: from soil to industry and back. Microorganisms. 2020 Oct 25;8(11):1655. doi:10.3390/microorganisms8111655

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Fuhrman JA. Marine viruses and their biogeochemical and ecological effects. Nature. 1999;399(6736):541–548. doi:10.1038/21119

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Prussin AJ, Garcia EB, Marr LC. Total concentrations of virus and bacteria in indoor and outdoor Air. Environ Sci Technol Lett. 2015;2(4):84–88. doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.5b00050

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Williamson KE, Fuhrmann JJ, Wommack KE, et al. Viruses in soil ecosystems: An unknown quantity within an unexplored territory. Annu Rev Virol. 2017;4(1):201–219. doi:10.1146/annurev-virology-101416-041639

 PubMedGoogle Scholar

Jones JC, Baranovich T, Marathe BM, et al. Risk assessment of H2N2 influenza viruses from the avian reservoir. J Virol. 2014;88(2):1175–1188. doi:10.1128/JVI.02526-13

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Wendel I, Rubbenstroth D, Doedt J, et al. The avian-origin PB1 gene segment facilitated replication and transmissibility of the H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza virus. J Virol. 2015;89(8):4170–4179. doi:10.1128/JVI.03194-14

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Baldo V, Bertoncello C, Cocchio S, Fonzo M, Pillon P, Buja A, Baldovin T. The new pandemic influenza A/(H1N1)pdm09 virus: is it really “new”? J Prev Med Hyg. 2016;57(1):E19–22.

 Google Scholar

Novel Swine-Origin Influenza AVIT, Dawood FS, Jain S, et al. Emergence of a novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus in humans. N Engl J Med. 2009;360(25):2605–2615. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa0903810

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar