The regional primary elections in Italy: a general overview

ABSTRACT

Primary elections are frequently used by Italian parties, particularly those of the centre-left. Primaries are used not only at the local and national levels, but also at the regional level. Until 2013, primary elections had been held in a limited number of regions where there were presidential and legislative-assembly elections. The 2014–15 period, however, has seen an explosion in the use of primaries with eight taking place in a few months, almost as many as in the previous 8 years. To these should be added the closed and online primaries of the Five Star Movement. These, given their characteristics, can hardly be compared with the primaries of the centre-left. This article will look at the 17 regional primaries organised by the Italian centre–left parties. We analyse the level of participation of the selectors, the results and the level of competitiveness. Finally, particular attention will be paid to the performances of the primary-election candidates and those of the selected candidates in the subsequent elections. This will help us to understand whether the primaries affected the outcome of the regional elections.

KEYWORDS:

• Primary elections
• democratic party
• matteo renzi
• regional elections

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. The participation rate is calculated on the basis of the number of votes cast for the centre-left at the parliamentary elections (Chamber of Deputies only) held before the regional primaries. More specifically, for the 2005 primaries, we used the votes cast at the 2001 election for La Margherita, the DS, Di Pietro’s List – Italy of Values, Communist Refoundation, the Sunflower, the Party of Italian Communists, and New Country; for the primaries from 2010 to 2012, we used the votes cast at the 2008 general election for the PD, Italy of Values, the Rainbow Left, the Workers’ Communist Party, the Critical Left, the Socialist Party; for the primaries from 2013 to 2015, we used the votes cast at the 2013 general election for the PD, the Left Ecology Freedom, the Democratic Centre, Civil Revolution, and the Workers’ Communist Party.

2. However, as shown in the next section, in other respects, regional primary elections do not fit the second-order model well.

3. Kenig’s index is calculated as the ratio between the effective number of candidates and their actual number. It varies between a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1.

4. To make the index more intelligible, we subtract 1 from the ratio. The IP score is equal to 0 when the two totals are equal; is less than 0 when the candidate has fewer votes than the lists supporting her/him; finally, it is greater than 0 when the opposite situation occurs.

5. For reasons already mentioned, we have excluded the primary election in Sardinia. Calabria 2010 and Abruzzo 2014 are excluded due to the lack of provincial data.

6. Officially, the PD was established on 14 October 2007. In the cases of Apulia 2005 and Sicily 2005 the main parties of the centre-left were the DS and La Margherita.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Marino De Luca

Marino De Luca is Adjunct Professor of Public Policy Analysis at the Department of Social and Institutional Science (University of Cagliari). His research interests include political parties, elections and political communication. His recent publications include: François Hollande e il Partito socialista francese (Carocci, 2015) and Democratising Candidate Selection in Italy and France (Ashgate, 2015).

Stefano Rombi

Stefano Rombi is post-doc fellow and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Cagliari. His main research interests concern political parties, elections, and the quality of democracy. His recent publications include: L’accountability dei governi democratici (Carocci, 2014) and Flocking to the secret garden. Electoral turnout in party leadership primaries (Epoké, 2015).