Review on socio-economic impacts of ‘Triple Threats’ of COVID-19, desert locusts, and floods in East Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia

Figures & data

Table 1. Simplified consequences of COVID-19 in East Africa

	First-order effects	Second-order effects	Third-order effects
Economic	Increasing health and related spending GDP drops Trade balance worsens Job and livelihood worsens Wealth depletion	Domestic supply chains collapse Increased non-formal activity Economic activities stalls Loss of livelihoods	Debt cries Financial disasters Economic recession Food insecurity Desperate poverty
Social	Social spending reduced The disproportionate impact on vulnerable groups Social services disrupted Loss of lives	Widespread deprivation Social disaffection Breakdown in social services	Social unrest Human development Increased inequalities Losses Vulnerable groups victimized

Source: Own Survey (2020)

Figure 1. The dynamics of covid-19 that threaten food security and nutrition

Source: Barbara, et al. (2020).

Figure 2. Situation desert locust crises at glance in East Africa

Source: USAID (2020).

Table 2. Percentage of respondents reporting having observed desert locusts and experiencing losses, by country and livelihood activity

Country		Cropping Respondents		Livestock Respondents
	% Observed DL		% DL Losses	% Observed DL	% DL Losses
Ethiopia	80%		56%	84%	65%
Kenya	27%		17%	35%	24%
Somalia	54%		36%	60%	36%
Uganda	32%		29%	47%	41%
Total	43%		30%	57%	41%

Source: FSNWG (2020b)

Table 3. Confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries reported in East Africa

Country	Number of cases (new)	Percent change in new cases	Number of deaths (new)	Percent change in new deaths	Epidemic phase
Comoros	715 (22)	−66%	7 (0)	−100%	3
Djibouti	5,813 (32)	−40%	61 (0)	−100%	3
Eritrea	1,039 (285)	563%	1 (1)	−98%	3
Ethiopia	122,864 (2,913)	−8%	1,909 (56)	112%	3
Kenya	95,923 (1,423)	−45%	1,658 (19)	−30%	3
Madagascar	17,714 (81)	76%	261 (1)	−67%	3
Mauritius	527 (3)	−67%	10 (0)	−100%	3
Rwanda	7,970 (677)	7%	74 (11)	−79%	3
Seychelles	211 (6)	−67%	(0)	−100%	3
Somalia	4,690 (28)	−66%	127 (3)	No change	3
South Sudan	3,491 (257)	818%	62 (0)	−100%	3
Sudan	23,316 (0)	−100%	1,468 (0)	NA*	3
Tanzania	509 (0)	NA*	21 (0)	NA*	3
Uganda	33,973 (2,589)	−28%	248 (10)	−82%	3

Source. ACDC (2020).

*No new cases/deaths reported in the previous week.

Table 4. Estimated cereals losses due to desert locust (in quintals) in Ethiopia

Region	Total lost	Maize	Sorghum	Wheat	Barely	Vegetable	Total
Afar	202,882	3633	175	614	0	453	4874
Amhara	96,780	0	15,430	614	0	0	15,430
Dire Dawa	31,050	300	1150	0	0	0	1450
Oromia	1,228,352	3813	32,238	0	0	0	41,051
SNNP	134,420	1748	2410	500	0	0	4158
Somali	1,026,132	30,000	41,271	0	0	0	90,076
Tigray	843,241	1847	20,956	18,805	0	0	40,577
Total	3,562,856	41,341	113,630	11,769	6005	453	197,615

Source. FAO (2020a)

Table 5. People affected and displaced by flood by region in Ethiopia

Region	Number of people affected	Number of people displaced
Afar	240,425	313,179
Somalia	140,892	37,650
Oromia	447,565	46,028
SNNP	90,120	56,111
Gambella	31,865	18,819
Amhara	144,490	10,313
Total	1,095,357+	482,100

Source. Compiled from own review (2020)

Figure 3. Impacts of flood on lives and livelihood in Ethiopia

Source. DPFSP (2020).

Figure 4. The impact of COVID-19 on the manufacturing sector in Ethiopia

Source. Modified from (UNE, 2020)

Barbara, B, Jennifer, C. Mahmoud E.S, Mária, K, Li, X, Bancy, M.M, William, M, Nitya, R, Thomas, R, Daniel, S, Kamil, S, José María, S.V, Shakuntala, T. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on food security and nutrition: developing effective policy responses to address the hunger and malnutrition pandemic. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb1000en

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DPFSP. (2020). Disaster prevention and food security program coordination office of Afar regional state Ethiopia.

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UNE. (2020). Policy brief: The impact of COVID-19 on food security and nutrition, June 20, 2020. reliefweb.int/report/world/policy-brief-impact

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