Ageing population and gross savings of ASEAN-5

Figures & data

Figure 1. Percentage of population aged 65 and above.

Source: World Development Indicators

Figure 2. Percentage of population aged 15–64.

Source: World Bank Indicator

Table 1. DF-GLS results

	At	Levels	First	Difference
	t-statistics		t-statistics
Variables	Constant $\left({\mathbf{t}}_{\mu }\right)$	Constant andTrend $\left({\mathbf{t}}_{\tau }\right)$	Constant $\left({\mathbf{t}}_{\mu }\right)$	Constant and Trend $\left({\mathbf{t}}_{\tau }\right)$
Pop-indo	−1.1051	−1.9059	−5.2443***	−6.2682***
rY-indo	0.1067	−1.9602	−3.9388***	−4.3491***
S-indo	−2.7950***	−4.2000***	−7.7151***	−7.7049***
Pop-mal	−0.6444	−3.1442*	−5.1127***	−3.9761***
rY-mal	0.6122	−1.5742	−3.7417***	−4.8190***
S-mal	−1.3914	−1.5488	−0.9606	−5.1569***
Pop-ph	−0.5938	−2.0738	−5.9596***	−6.2493***
rY-ph	−0.1223	−2.3282	−3.0273***	−2.9446*
S-ph	−1.4226	−1.5624	−4.3444***	−4.2594***
Pop-sp	−0.9530	−1.4408	−4.3562***	−5.4056***
rY-sp	−0.6130	−0.3896	−4.3112***	−4.9404***
S-sp	−1.2924	−1.6695	−5.8331***	−6.0916***
Pop-th	0.3713	−1.4805	−2.1017**	−3.2096**
rY-th	−0.1455	−0.9809	−3.2555***	−3.9958***
S-th	−1.4365	−1.6186	−4.4973***	−4.8065***

Notes: ***, ** and * denotes rejection of the null hypothesis at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively. Pop is the growth rate of the population aged 65 and above, rY is the log of real GDP and S is the gross savings rate. Indo, mal, ph, sp and th represent Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

Table 2. Bounds test

Dependent Variable	F-statistic
S-indo	5.4395***
S-mal	2.5081
S-ph	2.7715
S-sp	5.0124***
S-th	2.2252
Significance Level	Lower Bound I(0)	Upper Bound I(1)
10%	2.63	3.35
5%	3.10	3.87
2.5%	3.55	4.38
1%	4.13	5.00

Notes: *** denotes rejection of the null hypothesis at the 1% significance level.

Table 3. Short-run coefficient tests

Indonesia
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
C	−0.0418	1.1318	−0.03693
ΔPop-indo(−1)	11.0203	117.0425	0.0942
ΔrY-indo(−1)	2.3637	17.856	0.1324
ECT- indo(−1)	−0.6504	0.3493	−1.8620*
Malaysia
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
C	0.7065	0.6516	1.0842
ΔPop-mal(−1)	−55.7802	70.3181	−0.7933
ΔrY-mal(−1)	−12.0525	9.0643	−1.3297
ECT-mal(−1)	−0.1862	0.4566	−0.4077
Philippines
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
C	−0.1683	0.6660	−0.2527
ΔPop-ph(−1)	55.4387	81.5124	0.6801
ΔrYpph(−1)	1.6085	13.7614	0.1169
ECT-ph(−1)	−0.2307	0.4668	−0.4941
Singapore
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
C	−0.5930	0.8786	−0.6750
ΔPop-sp(−1)	−38.3255	38.2661	−1.0016
ΔrY-sp(−1)	10.7069	12.9369	0.8276
ECT-sp(−1)	−1.0049	0.3203	−3.1379***
Thailand
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
C	0.0575	0.5884	0.0977
ΔPop-th(−1)	99.9116	190.2385	0.5252
ΔPop-th(−2)	12.4861	197.7365	0.0631
ΔrY-th(−1)	9.4990	8.4900	1.1188
ΔrY-th(−2)	−11.6358	8.0793	−1.4402
ECT-th(−1)	−0.5958	0.4630	−1.2867
Wald Test	F-statistics	χ^2
ΔPop-th	0.3026	0.6052
ΔrY-th	1.5347	3.0693

Notes: * and *** denote rejection of the null hypothesis at the 10% and 1% levels of significance, respectively.

Table 4. Long-run coefficients estimates

Indonesia
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
Pop	−28.2248	93.0376	−0.3034
rY	5.7881	1.3131	4.4079***
C	−184.6993	47.2024	−3.9129***
Diagnostic		F-statistics
Breusch-Godfrey LM Test		0.0945
Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey Test		0.6059
Jargue-Bera Normality Test		0.8928
Malaysia
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
Pop	−619.572	389.4008	−1.5911
rY	8.4574	5.9693	1.4168
C	−190.7002	156.2994	−1.2201
Diagnostic		F-statistics
Breusch-Godfrey LM Test		1.1903
Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey Test		0.1446
Jargue-Bera Normality Test		1.3109
Philippines
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
Pop	387.9076	353.6825	1.0968
rY	−5.5108	11.4957	−0.4794
C	64.3340	97.2983	0.6612
Diagnostic		F-statistics
Breusch-Godfrey LM Test		0.1959
Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey Test		1.9041
Jargue-Bera Normality Test		15.2546***
Singapore
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
Pop	−62.0420	50.3926	−1.2312
rY	5.5353	1.5408	3.5926***
C	−109.6938	40.7237	−2.6936***
Diagnostic		F-statistics
Breusch-Godfrey LM Test		0.2336
Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey Test		0.6612
Jargue-Bera Normality Test		0.8913
Thailand
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic
Pop	1.7624	5.0291	0.3504
rY	163.7249	313.7166	0.5219
C	−32.7302	140.7404	−0.2326
Diagnostic		F-statistics
Breusch-Godfrey LM Test		0.0104
Breusch-Pagan- Godfrey Test		0.1082
Jargue-Bera Normality Test		1.0095

Notes: *** denotes rejection of the null hypothesis at the 1% level.

Figure 3. Rolling co-integration.

Socio-economic indicators of ASEAN-5

GDP (constant 2015 billion USD)	Indonesia	Malaysia	Philippines	Singapore	Thailand
2010	657.84	232.65	228.62	247.08	346.97
2015	860.85	301.35	306.45	308.00	401.30
2016	904.18	314.76	328.36	318.26	415.08
2017	950.02	333.06	351.11	332.64	432.42
2018	999.18	349.19	373.38	344.28	450.54
2019	1,049.32	364.69	396.22	348.91	460.75
2020	1,027.60	344.10	358.29	330.10	432.65
Gross savings (% of GDP)
2010	32.73	33.47	39.75	50.59	29.63
2015	30.12	28.40	35.63	44.05	28.04
2016	29.92	28.38	35.05	44.47	30.08
2017	30.88	28.34	35.49	45.46	31.94
2018	31.68	26.13	33.81	42.32	31.66
2019	30.90	24.54	31.76	40.32	31.71
2020	29.61	23.97	24.86	40.85	27.75
Age dependency ratio, people older than 64 years (% of working-age population)
2000	7.273217	6.241233	5.609834	8.522299	9.399706
2010	7.495183	7.359338	6.6865	9.219669	12.37066
2015	8.015168	8.66844	7.291573	11.55154	14.84385
2016	8.215484	8.979515	7.522589	12.53299	15.42582
2017	8.429796	9.294631	7.763354	13.70318	16.06107
2018	8.665518	9.622755	8.014735	15.0323	16.75896
2019	8.932369	9.974558	8.277634	16.46373	17.53033
2020	9.236544	10.35588	8.552395	17.95835	18.38244
Current health expenditure (% of GDP)
2000	1.85	2.51	3.06	3.34	3.10
2005	2.53	2.79	3.74	3.03	3.16
2010	2.79	3.16	4.13	3.20	3.39
2015	2.92	3.82	3.90	4.18	3.67
2016	3.02	3.69	3.95	4.39	3.75
2017	2.90	3.70	3.96	4.36	3.84
2018	2.87	3.75	3.95	4.09	3.82
2019	2.90	3.83	4.08	4.08	3.79
Unemployment rate	Indonesia	Malaysia	Philippines	Singapore	Thailand
2000	6.08	3.00	3.65	3.70	2.39
2010	5.61	3.39	3.61	4.12	0.62
2015	4.51	3.10	3.07	3.79	0.60
2016	4.30	3.44	2.70	4.08	0.69
2017	3.88	3.41	2.55	4.20	0.83
2018	4.40	3.30	2.34	3.64	0.77
2019	3.62	3.26	2.24	3.10	0.72
2020	4.28	4.50	2.52	4.10	1.10
2021	4.41	4.61	2.41	3.62	1.42
Percentage of female population
2000	49.95	49.05	49.63	48.72	50.61
2010	49.63	48.42	49.56	47.86	50.99
2015	49.64	48.51	49.67	47.67	51.16
2016	49.64	48.54	49.70	47.67	51.20
2017	49.64	48.56	49.72	47.66	51.23
2018	49.64	48.58	49.74	47.66	51.27
2019	49.65	48.60	49.76	47.66	51.30
2020	49.65	48.62	49.78	47.66	51.34
Female labor force, (% of total labor force)
2000	38.32	35.68	38.52	38.57	45.75
2010	38.26	34.85	39.10	40.28	45.86
2015	38.09	37.98	39.70	41.65	45.66
2016	38.37	38.21	39.22	41.77	45.65
2017	38.90	38.43	38.19	41.58	45.58
2018	39.21	38.54	38.71	41.75	45.61
2019	39.49	38.61	39.29	41.81	45.71
2020	39.43	38.57	39.10	41.22	45.84
2021	39.62	38.49	39.33	41.20	45.92
Birth rate per 1,000 people
1960	44.55	42.69	44.30	37.50	42.74
2000	21.77	21.98	29.61	13.70	14.52
2010	20.80	17.26	25.02	9.30	11.76
2015	19.17	17.02	22.27	9.70	10.84
2016	18.79	16.96	21.62	9.40	10.68
2017	18.42	16.87	21.04	8.90	10.51
2018	18.07	16.75	20.55	8.80	10.34
2019	17.75	16.61	20.17	8.80	10.17
2020	17.45	16.44	19.89	8.50	9.99
Literacy rate of people ages 15–24
2000		97.24	95.09	99.50	97.98
2009	99.47
2010		98.42		99.75	96.60
2015	99.67		99.08	99.78	98.15
2016	99.67	97.61		99.93
2017		97.27		99.93
2018	99.71	96.85		99.93	98.14
2019		96.78	98.38	99.93
2020	99.78

Source: World Development Indicators published by the World Bank

Lag selection

	Akaike information Criterion (AIC)	Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC)
Indonesia
Lag 1	−6.2443*	−5.7478*
Lag 2	−6.0090	−5.1401
Lag 3	−6.0665	−4.8253
Lag 4	−5.7896	−4.1760
Malaysia
Lag 1	−6.3409*	−5.8445*
Lag 2	−6.2300	−5.3612
Lag 3	−6.1189	−4.8777
Lag 4	−5.8983	−4.2847
Philippines
Lag 1	−6.7682*	−6.2717*
Lag 2	−6.6549	−5.7861
Lag 3	−6.3593	−5.1181
Lag 4	−6.1114	−4.4979
Singapore
Lag 1	−5.1856*	−4.6891*
Lag 2	−5.0800	−4.2112
Lag 3	−5.0845	−3.8434
Lag 4	−5.1341	−3.5206
Thailand
Lag 1	−9.3280	−8.8316
Lag 2	−10.046*	−9.1775*
Lag 3	−9.9272	−8.6860
Lag 4	−9.7164	−8.1028