Does climate affect regional economic development in China?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Ranking of average temperature of each province in 1997 – 2018 in China (in °C).

Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics of 1997–2018.

Table 1. Unit root test—ADF

	West Region				West Region				East Region
	Level		1^st Difference		Level		1^st Difference		Level		1^st Difference
	C	C & T	C	C & T	C	C & T	C	C & T	C	C & T	C	C & T
	Sichuan				Shaanxi				Beijing
GDP	2.62	−0.67	−6.17***	−4.19**	1.45	−1.55	−3.20*	−3.32*	9.53	−1.17	0.26	−4.05**
FDI	−0.78	−3.09	−2.69*	−2.62	0.13	−1.37	−5.89***	−5.47**	−0.71	−4.49**	−3.32**	−3.53**
EXP	1.84	−0.99	−3.52**	−4.58***	1.05	−2.99	−4.87***	−5.2***	−3.16	−2.38	−2.84**	−2.70
RAIN	−1.55	−1.22	−3.23**	−3.64*	−4.10**	−3.99**	−4.98***	−4.83***	−1.67	−4.79***	−4.89***	−4.52***
	ChongQing								Shanghai
GDP	−0.36	−0.61	−2.55*	−3.33*					7.62	0.18	0.54	−3.8*
FDI	−1.33	−2.12	−6.24***	−6.09***					0.03	−2.4	−2.98**	−2.78
EXP	2.69	−2.52	−2.72*	−4.73**					−0.89	−1.10	−3.89***	−3.91**
RAIN	−6.12***	−5.96***	−6.17***	−7.14***					−2.49	−2.27	−3.77**	−3.81**
					Middle Region
	Guizhou				Shanxi				Guangdong
GDP	1.52	−2.42	−2.71***	−3.42*	1.28	−2.66	−2.98**	−3.36*	8.43	−0.24	−0.06	−4.11**
FDI	−0.68	−2.15	−4.03***	−4.91***	−0.86	−3.03	−3.78**	−3.69**	−0.83	−2.04	−4.56***	−4.45**
EXP	−1.11	−1.98	−3.99***	−3.76**	−0.61	−3.73**	−5.90***	−5.83***	−0.34	−1.72	−3.46 **	−3.36*
RAIN	−4.76***	−4.64***	−9.43***	−9.24***	−1.61	−2.69	−4.37**	−4.44**	−4.92***	−4.98**	−7.54***	−7.36***
	Tibet				Jilin				Jiangsu
GDP	−1.20	−1.61	−4.14**	−4.34***	−0.59	−2.61	−1.69	−1.42	7.64	−1.42	−0.71	−3.85**
FDI	−2.06	−3.01	−7.12***	−6.95***	1.10	−7.61***	−4.39***	−4.03**	−1.31	−1.6	−2.85**	−2.91
EXP	−2.40	−2.64	−3.11**	−3.07	−1.24	−1.80	−4.34***	−4.33**	0.05	−2.28	−4.18 ***	−4.09**
RAIN	−3.26**	−3.11	−6.34***	−6.33***	−7.46***	−4.04**	−3.57**	−3.47*	−3.66**	−4.32**	−4.77***	−4.59**
	Qinghai				AnHui				Zhejiang
GDP	6.94	−0.15	−0.14	−4.82**	3.98	0.83	0.15	−4.58**	6.74	−0.54	−1.12	−3.70**
FDI	−2.44	−0.92	−3.70	−4.82***	0.10	−1.87	−1.63	−1.97	0.43	−5.86	−4.29***	−4.09**
EXP	−1.67	−3.78**	−3.53**	−3.39*	0.72	−1.83	−3.23**	−3.41**	0.74	−2.76	−3.79***	−3.88***
RAIN	−4.78**	−4.66***	−9.29***	−9.36***	−3.78***	−4.33**	−6.72***	−6.49***	−3.25**	−3.29*	−5.39***	−5.24***
	Xinjiang				Henan				Fujian
GDP	3.72	−1.06	−1.65	−4.55**	6.61	0.53	−0.76	−4.16*	3.84	1.49	3.83**	−3.73**
FDI	−2.89*	−2.49	−3.38**	−3.43**	6.18	−1.23	−1.39	−2.94	−2.06	−2.01	−3.88**	−3.82**
EXP	−1.18	−1.95	−4.59**	−4.52**	0.64	−2.83	−2.85**	−2.89	0.05	−2.59	−3.13**	−3.06
RAIN	−4.38**	−4.28**	−6.62***	−6.43***	−4.24***	−4.22**	−8.56***	−8.36***	−5.39***	−4.24**	−5.46***	−5.48***
	Guangxi				Hubei
GDP	7.24	−0.86	−0.43	−3.34**	3.29	0.54	0.29	−3.91**
FDI	−2.16	−2.93	−4.94**	−4.84**	0.15	−3.22	−3.07**	−2.92
EXP	1.70	−1.35	−3.73**	−3.74**	−1.15	−2.03	−1.52	−4.76***
RAIN	−5.32***	−5.23***	−8.43***	−5.35***	−4.43***	−4.33**	−4.66***	−4.59**

Note: TEMP is omitted to conserve space. Available upon request. C is constant without a trend, and C & T refers to constant with a trend. Asterisks *, **, and *** denote significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% critical values, respectively.

Table 2. Bound cointegration test

West Region	WEAT=TEMP	WEAT=RAIN	Middle Region	WEAT=TEMP	WEAT=RAIN	East Region	WEAT= TEMP	WEAT=RAIN
Sichuan	62.12***	76.57***	Shanxi	14.26***	5.91***	Beijing	8.54***	8.28***
Chongqing	6.43***	7.57**	Jilin	3.72**	3.28**	Shanghai	11.04***	7.73**
Guizhou	8.43***	22.02***	Anhui	12.55***	13.79***	Guangdong	9.77***	23.59***
Tibet	17.98***	66.05***	Henan	25.76***	39.41***	Jiangsu	10.11***	35.25***
Shaanxi	7.96***	20.29***	Hubei	4.89**	23.04***	Zhejiang	11.62***	34.05***
Qinghai	10.33***	22.24***				Fujian	9.43***	6.39***
Xinjiang	13.50**	7.19***
Guangxi	95.78***	75.41***
Critical Value
1%	3. 59		5%	4.31		10%	5.97

Note: Asterisks *, **, and *** denote significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% critical values, respectively.

Table 3. Error correction model

Panel I: Error Correction Model	Panel II: Diagnostic Test^a
	AC	HET	NORM	STAB
East provinces:
Beijing: ∆GDP = − 0.14ECT(−1)*** − 1.51 ∆GDP(−1)** − 38.84∆FDI − 78.91∆FDI(−1)** + 1.07∆EXP*** + 0.74∆EXP(−1)** − 57.51**	17.16	1.32	0.51	0.15
Shanghai: ∆GDP = − 0.07ECT(−1)*** − 2.13∆FDI − 4.69∆FDI(−1)*** −0.13∆RAIN***	0.39	0.75	2.43	0.38
GuangDong: ∆GDP = − 0.13ECT(−1)*** + 0.26∆GDP(−1)*** − 2.8∆FDI*** + 2.72∆FDI(−1)*** + 0.38∆EXP***-0.49∆EXP(−1)*** + 0.09∆RAIN*** − 0.42∆RAIN (−1)***	4.71	0.29	4.71	1.19
Jiangsu: ∆GDP = − 0.12ECT(−1)*** − 0.34 ∆GDP(−1)** + 0.53∆FDI + 1.23∆FDI(−1)** + 0.49∆EXP*** −0.33∆EXP(−1)*** + 0.12∆RAIN*** − 0.28∆RAIN(−1)***	4.46	0.59	7.94	0.69
Zhejiang: ∆GDP = − 0.14ECT(−1)*** + 8.43∆FDI*** − 11.94∆FDI(−1)** + 0.33∆EXP*** − 0.52∆EXP(−1)*** + 0.22∆RAIN*** − 0.51∆RAIN(−1)***	0.71	0.73	0.29	0.79
Fujian: ∆GDP = − 0.12ECT(−1)*** − 0.17∆FDI − 2.16∆FDI(−1)* + 0.75∆EXP*** + 0.01∆RAIN − 0.09∆RAIN(−1)** − 431.46***	1.38	0.55	0.38	1.52
Middle provinces:
ShanXi: ∆GDP = − 0.25ECT(−1)*** − 2.97∆FDI	1.18	1.94	2.87	1.93
Jilin: ∆GDP = −0.26ECT(−1)*** + 0.46∆GDP(−1)*** + 0.07RAIN**	1.20	1.13	0.67	1.19
Anhui: ∆GDP = − 0.93ECT(−1)*** − 0.61∆GDP(−1)** + 5.94∆FDI*** + 19.14∆FDI(−1)*** − 3.43 ∆EXP*** + 1.03∆EXP(−1)** − 0.04RAIN + 0.09∆RAIN(−1)***	0.99	3.05	0.73	0.10
Henan: ∆GDP = − 0.28ECT(−1)*** + 1.50∆FDI − 0.08∆RAIN − 159.38***	6.02	4.55	0.32	0.45
Hubei: ∆GDP = − 0.06ECT(−1)*** + 0.29∆GDP(−1)** + 0.60∆EXP + 1350.64***	6.97	1.37	0.29	0.42
West Provinces:
Sichuan: ∆GDP = − 0.23ECT(−1)*** − 0.41∆GDP(−1)*** + 6.59∆FDI*** + 0.64∆EXP*** −0.18∆RAIN*** + 0.13∆RAIN(−1)***	2.01	1.12	15.67	0.04
ChongQing: ∆GDP = − 0.06ECT(−1)*** + 2.24∆FDI** − 2.16∆FDI(−1)** + 0.16∆EXP** − 0.56∆EXP(−1)*** + 0.192	17.91	1.70	2.82	0.84
GuiZhou: ∆GDP = − 0.23ECT(−1)*** − 3.85∆RAIN** + 6.93∆RAIN(−1)** + 1.38***	2.10	0.92	3.92	1.69
Tibet: ∆GDP = − 0.01ECT(−1)*** + 1.22∆RAIN + 0.0001∆RAIN(−1)***	1.04	2.27	0.96	0.11
ShaanXi: ∆GDP = −0.09ECT(−1)*** − 432.63***	5.70	1.18	0.81	1.86
QingHai: ∆GDP = −0.19ECT(−1)*** −5.86∆FDI**+9.12∆FDI (−1)*-1.52	0.79	1.49	1.22	0.16
XinJiang: ∆GDP = − 0.09ECT(−1)*** + 0.51∆GDP(−1)*** − 11.85∆FDI**-39.60∆FDI (−1)*** + 2.14∆EXP***-0.06∆RAIN*** − 0.08∆RAIN(−1)***	2.74	0.88	0.03	0.90
GuangXi: ∆GDP = − 0.47ECT(−1)*** + 15.39∆FDI*** − 88.43***	5.35	2.42	1.28	0.25

Table 4. Long-run estimates of ARDL [DV: GDP]

West

Sichuan

Chongqing

Guizhou

Tibet

Shaanxi

Qinghai

Xinjiang

Guangxi

Constant

−1.76 [−7.43]*

−2.67 [−2.27]*

2.39 [1.89]**

1.58 [3.73]**

0.15 [11.49]***

−8.84 [1.26]

3.97 [0.86]

1.32 [0.53]

3.49 [0.13]

2.26 [2.32]**

3.97** [2.12]

3.19 [2.70]

7.80 [2.17]**

−3.72 [−2.24]**

1.87 [1.85]**

−7.78 [−0.59]

FDI

−9.31 [−2.36]*

−10.04 [−1.49]

8.27 [1.23]

4.33 [2.19]**

0.07 [0.85]

−1.47 [0.32]

−0.6 [−0.13]

11.02 [6.73]***

6.77 [0.05]

−1.89 [−1.71]

−3.99*** [−4.07]

−2.56 [−2.73]*

−1.69 [0.68]

3.75 [2.14]**

−2.81 [−0.35]

−3.77 [−1.04]

EXP

5.47 [4.09]*

7.67 [4.31]*

1.55 [0.88]

0.67 [0.65]

0.002 [0.86]

1.07 [0.57]

−0.03 [−0.16]

−4.57 [−5.48]***

1.28 [1.27]

3.65 [2.70]*

−3.75 [−0.93]

−3.03 [−1.13]

5.33 [0.21]

−5.99 [−1.42]

6.37 [1.29]***

6.47 [2.37]**

TEMP

-

1.67 [2.37]*

-

−1.44 [−0.00]

-

5.52 [1.26]

-

−1.9 [−0.49]

-

−1.51 [−2.53]**

-

−2.78 [−2.89]*

-

4.69 [2.28]**

-

1.73 [1.02]

RAIN

2.36 [2.97]*

-

−0.26 [−0.33]

-

−0.001 [−1.33]

-

−0.03 [−0.77]*

-

0.77 [0.62]

-

−0.05 [−0.35]*

-

−1.71 [−1.83]*

-

−0.02 [−0.38]

-

Middle

Shanxi

Jilin

Anhui

Henan

Hubei

Constant

−1.36 [−0.94]

7.17 [1.64]

−1.89 [−1.35]

3.27 [2.55]**

7.17 [0.59]

−4.14 [−0.77]

5.38 [1.35]

8.12 [1.66]

2.00 [2.12]**

−1.34 [−0.75]

FDI

9.63 [4.46]***

6.34 [8.48]***

3.57 [1.12]

2.47 [2.03]***

6.08 [2.11]**

3.98 [1.23]

3.36 [4.41]***

2.10 [3.09]***

1.42 [1.74]

−9.35 [−0.25]

EXP

−1.42 [0.09]*

0.47 [0.17]

1.48 [0.94]

2.57 [4.48]***

7.88 [5.25]***

9.03 [5.67]***

−4.58 [1.48]

0.01 [0.00]

6.66 [1.24]

3.88 [1.09]

TEMP

-

7.17 [1.64]

-

−4.75 [−1.91]**

-

4.79 [1.12]

-

−5.76 [−1.58]

-

−1.68 [−0.75]

RAIN

0.89 [2.64]***

-

0.75 [1.11]

-

0.16 [1.25]

-

−0.35 [−0.52]*

-

−0.11 [−2.35]**

-

East

Beijing

Shanghai

Jiangsu

Guangdong

Zhejiang

Fujian

Constant

4.01 [0.79]

−1.38 [0.08]

2.22 [0.19]

1.28 [1.35]

−2.03 [−2.57]**

−1.66 [−0.79]

−1.22 [−0.53]

5.32 [1.04]

−1.07 [−3.64]***

6.62 [0.37]

3.33 [1.85]**

9.15 [0.41]

FDI

1.03 [0.21]

3.72 [1.10]***

2.62 [2.52]**

−5.39 [0.31]

−1.43 [−3.19]***

−4.98 [0.76]

−6.75 [−2.56]**

−77.32 [−1.09]

1.98 [3.19]**

2.67 [0.68]

−3.66 [−2.59]**

−1.60 [−3.00]***

EXP

−2.39 [−3.17]**

−2.96 [−6.81]***

2.55 [1.06]

−0.17 [−0.26]

6.72 [6.56]***

7.73 [0.00]***

4.29 [4.41]***

3.70 [2.01]**

−7.51 [−0.53]

1.37 [0.09]*

1.63 [1.79]**

TEMP

-

−7.21 [−5.88]***

-

−4.36 [−1.39]

-

1.72 [0.94]

-

1.72 [0.94]

-

−4.11 [0.30]

-

−3.84 [−0.36]

RAIN

−3.09 [−3.87]**

-

0.27 [0.23]

-

4.56 [4.94]***

-

4.82 [3.15]***

-

7.81 [0.00]***

-

−1.57 [−1.31]

-

Note: Asterisks *, **, and *** denote significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% critical values, respectively.

Figure 2. Ranking of average GDP of each province in the year 1997 – 2018 in China (in billion yuan).

Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics of 1997–2018