The impact of geopolitical risks and international relations on inbound tourism——evidence from China and key source countries

Figures & data

Figure 1. Conceptual model diagram.

Table 1. Description of variables in the measurement models

Variable Type	Variable Name	Variable Symbol	Metering Method
inbound tourism	inbound tourist arrivals	IT (International Tourist Arrivals)	logarithm of inbound tourist arrivals
international relations	international relations index	IR (International Relations)	international relations
geopolitical risk	geopolitical risk index	GPR (Geopolitical risks)	geopolitical risk
resource endowment	abundance of tourism resources	WHS (World Heritage Site)	number of World Natural Heritage, World Cultural Heritage, and World Natural and Cultural Heritage sites
openness level	foreign direct investment	FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)	logarithm of total inflow and outflow of foreign direct investment
relative price	change rate of the exchange rate	ROE (rate of exchange)	change rate of the RMB exchange rate
distance factor	distance cost	DC (Distance cost)	logarithm of the product of geographical distance and international oil price
population of tourist source countries	population of tourist source countries	POP (Total population of tourist-guest sources)	logarithm of the population of tourist source countries

Figure 2. The spectrum of international relation index.

Table 2. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis of variables in econometric models

Variables	Mean	Standard deviation	IR	GPR	WHS	lnFDI	ROE	lnDC	lnPOP
lnIT	4.4447	0.9315
IR	4.3164	2.6851	1
GPR	104.3524	19.1924	−0.1308*	1
WHS	37.95	9.0085	0.1056	0.0703	1
lnFDI	10.8499	1.8158	−0.555***	0.0209	0.0131	1
ROE	1.7187	9.5802	0.0945	−0.0134	0.0753	−0.1101	1
lnDC	12.6825	0.8636	0.1441**	−0.305**	−0.296***	−0.3898***	−0.0439	1
lnPOP	18.5914	1.0702	−0.280***	0.0008	0.036	−0.0984	0.1111	−0.0287	1

Note: ***, **, and * represent significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.

Table 3. The impact of international relations and geopolitical risks on inbound tourism

Variables	(1) ln(IT)	(2) ln(IT)	(3) ln(IT)
IR	0.0567*** (0.0097)		0.0466*** (0.0092)
GPR		−0.0047** (0.0008)	−0.0040*** (0.0007)
WHS	0.0342*** (0.0021)	0.0295*** (0.0022)	0.0308*** (0.0021)
lnFDI	0.1285*** (0.0219)	0.1377*** (0.0216)	0.1290*** (0.0204)
ROE	0.0010 (0.0012)	−0.0003 (0.0012)	0.0001 (0.0011)
lnDC	0.3640*** (0.0373)	0.2405*** (0.0397)	0.2347*** (0.0373)
lnPOP	2.0438*** (0.3643)	2.9103*** (0.3320)	2.2189*** (0.3407)
Constant	−41.1069*** (6.7184)	−54.8346*** (6.0979)	−42.1381*** (6.2578)
Observations	200	200	200
R-squared	0.8569	0.8595	0.8760
state	yes	yes	yes

Note: ***, **, and * represent significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. Those in brackets are standard errors.

Table 4. The moderating effect of geopolitical risks on international relations and inbound tourism

Variables	(1) ln(IT)	(2) ln(IT)	(3) ln(IT)
IR	0.0924*** (0.0237)	0.0511*** (0.0094)
GPR	−0.0023** (0.0011)	−0.0040*** (0.0007)
IR* GPR	−0.0004** (0.0002)
c_ IR			0.0511*** (0.0094)
c_ GPR			−0.0040*** (0.0007)
c_IR*c_GPR		−0.0004** (0.0002)	−0.0004** (0.0002)
WHS	0.0305*** (0.0021)	0.0305*** (0.0021)	0.0305*** (0.0021)
lnFDI	0.1290*** (0.0202)	0.1290*** (0.0202)	0.1290*** (0.0202)
ROE	0.0002 (0.0011)	0.0002 (0.0011)	0.0002 (0.0011)
lnDC	0.2327*** (0.0373)	0.2327*** (0.0373)	0.2327*** (0.0373)
lnPOP	2.2386*** (0.3377)	2.2386*** (0.3377)	2.2386*** (0.3377)
Constant	−42.6859*** (6.2060)	−42.5077*** (6.2030)	−42.7078*** (6.2217)
Observations	200	200	200
R-squared	0.8782	0.8782	0.8782
state	yes	yes	yes

Note: ***, **, and * represent significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. Those in brackets are standard errors. c_ IR and c_ GPR denote centralized international relations and geopolitical risk index.

Figure 3. Differences in the impact of international relations on inbound tourism moderated by different geopolitical risk levels.

Table 5. The partial effect of international relations on different levels of geopolitical risk

GPR	ln(IT)
GPR=80	0.0607*** (0.0114)
GPR=100	0.0528*** (0.0096)
GPR=120	0.0449*** (0.0091)
GPR=140	0.0370*** (0.0102)
GPR=160	0.0291** (0.0112)
GPR= mean	0.0511*** (0.0094)

Note: The impact is estimated based on Equation 3(3) $\frac{\mathrm{\partial }l{n}_{it}}{\mathrm{\partial }I{R}_{it}}={\gamma }_1+{\gamma }_{3}GP{R}_{it}$(3) . ***, **, and * represent significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. Those in brackets are standard errors.