Evaluation of Thailand’s COVID-19-Related policies and their impact on the stock market using a PMC Index model approach¹

Figures & data

Table 1. Data sources

Data Type	Data Source
Thai COVID-19 Policy	The Secretariat of the Cabinet Thailand (Ministry of Public Health of Thailand, 2018)
Stock Price	Stock Exchange of Thailand (The Stock Exchange of Thailand, n.d.)
Inflation Rate	The Economic and Trade Indices Database (ETID); Ministry of Commerce Thailand (Thailand Ministry of Commerce, n.d..)
The Number of COVID-19 Infections and Reproduction Rate	Our World in Data (Ritchie et al., 2020)
Business Sentiment Index (BSI)	The Bank of Thailand (BOT) (Bank Of Thailand, n.d..)

Table 2. Main- and sub-variables of the PMC- Index model

Main-variables	Sub-variables
Policy type $\left({\mathbf{X}}_1\right)$	Legislation $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{1:1}\right)$, Provisional regulations $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{1:2}\right)$, Permanent regulations $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{1:3}\right)$
Policy area $\left({\mathbf{X}}_2\right)$	Economy $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{2:1}\right)$, Industries $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{2:2}\right)$, Health $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{2:3}\right)$, Society $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{2:4}\right)$, Education $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{2:5}\right)$, Civic space $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{2:6}\right)$
Policy level $\left({\mathbf{X}}_3\right)$	Nation $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{3:1}\right)$, Zone $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{3:2}\right)$, Province $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{3:3}\right)$, District $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{3:4}\right)$, Village $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{3:5}\right)$
Policy period $\left({\mathbf{X}}_4\right)$	Long-term (> 5 years) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{4:1}\right)$, Medium-term (3–5 years) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{4:2}\right)$, Short-term (< 3 years) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{4:3}\right)$, Non-specific $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{4:4}\right)$
Strength and direction of stock price changes (compared with the inflation rate) $\left({\mathbf{X}}_5\right)$	Large positive (> 5%) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{5:1}\right)$, Intermediate positive (+3–5%) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{5:2}\right)$, Neutral ($\pm$3%) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{5:3}\right)$, Intermediate Negative (−3%–5%) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{5:4}\right)$, Large Negative (< −5%) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{5:5}\right)$
Policy support $\left({\mathbf{X}}_6\right)$	Financial $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:1}\right)$, People’s Health and Well-Being $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:2}\right)$, Industry $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:3}\right)$, Transportation $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:4}\right)$, Agriculture $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:5}\right)$, Service $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:6}\right)$, Technology and Education $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{6:7}\right)$
Reproduction rate of among COVID-19 Cases (within the policy period) $\left({\mathbf{X}}_7\right)$	High (R>1.1) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{7:1}\right)$, Neutral ($\mathrm{R}=0.9-1.1$) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{7:2}\right)$, Low (R<0.9) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{7:3}\right)$
Policy coverage $\left({\mathbf{X}}_8\right)$	Childhood (0–14) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{8:1}\right)$, Youth (15–24) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{8:2}\right)$, Adulthood (25–65) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{8:3}\right)$, Seniority (65 and above) $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{8:4}\right)$
Policy development $\left({\mathbf{X}}_9\right)$	Continuation $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{9:1}\right)$, Discontinuation $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{9:2}\right)$, Phase development $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{9:3}\right)$
Policy publication $\left({\mathbf{X}}_{10}\right)$	Government website $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{10:1}\right)$, social media $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{10:2}\right)$, Newspaper $\left({\mathrm{X}}_{10:3}\right)$

Figure 1. The PMC-Surface of Containment and Closure policy. (a) curfew policy (b) country Closure policy (c) Business shutdown policy.

Table 3. The PMC-Index score of the containment and closure policies in three phases

Sub-Variables	$X_1$	$X_2$	$X_3$	$X_4$	$X_5$	$X_6$	$X_7$	$X_8$	$X_9$	$X_{10}$	PMC -score
(a) Curfew Policy, 26/3/2020–30/4/2020 (BSI: 32.6)
1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1
4		1	1	0	0	1		1
5		0	1		1	0
6		1				0
7						0
	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.29	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	5.24
(b) Country Closure, 26/3/2020–30/4/2020 (BSI:32.6)
1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1
4		1	1	0	0	1		1
5		0	1		1	0
6		1				1
7						0
	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.43	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	5.38
(c) Business Shutdown, 21/7/2021–2/8/2021 (BSI:41.4)
1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	1
4		1	1	0	0	1		1
5		1	1		0	1
6		1				1
7						1
	0.33	1.00	0.80	0.25	0.20	0.86	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	6.11

Table 4. The PMC-Index score of all policy groups

Policy Title	R	P (%)	BSI	X1	X2	X3	X4	X5	X6	X7	X8	X9	X10	PMC-Score
Containment and Closure
Curfew (26/3 - 30/4/20)	0.81	-26.56	32.60	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.29	0.33	1.0	0.33	1.00	5.24
Country Closure (26/3 - 30/4/20)	0.81	-26.56	32.60	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.43	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	5.38
Business shutdown (21/7 - 2/8/21)	1.26	+13.81	41.40	0.33	1.00	0.80	0.25	0.20	0.86	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	6.11
Health System
COVID-19 Detection procedure (23/4 - 23/7/20)	0.81	-20.02	32.60	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.57	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	5.52
COVID-19 Protection (22/1 - 22/4/21)	1.16	+15.75	47.20	0.33	0.67	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.57	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	5.52
Investment in COVID-19 Vaccines (23/11 - 23/2/22)	1.08	+11.03	48.00	0.33	0.83	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.71	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	6.00
Economic Responses
Soft Loan (debt relief) (23/4 - 23/7/20)	0.81	-20.02	38.60	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.57	0.33	0.00	0.33	1.00	4.52
Support entrepreneur (13/7 - 13/8/21)	1.23	+14.92	40.00	0.33	0.50	0.80	0.25	0.20	0.43	0.33	0.50	0.33	1.00	4.68
Support employee (23/8 - 23/9/21)	0.91	+24.95	42.6	0.33	0.50	0.80	0.25	0.20	0.71	0.33	0.75	0.33	1.00	5.21
Purchasing power support (1/7 - 31/12/21)	0.99	+20.45	44.73	0.33	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.20	0.71	0.33	1.00	0.33	1.00	5.66

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