Escaping the middle-income trap: A study on a developing economy

Figures & data

Table 2. Income and output parameters of Bangladesh

Indicators	Year
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)	800	890	970	1040	1110	1220	1370	1520	1750	1940	2010
Nominal GNI per capita growth rate, Atlas method (current US$) (%)		11.25	8.99	7.22	6.73	9.91	12.30	10.95	15.13	10.86	3.61
Real GNI per capita growth rate, Atlas method (current US$) (%)		3.39	0.82	0.04	1.06	4.04	−15.56	5.90	9.33	7.20	−0.23
GDP per capita (current US$)											1968.79

Source: The World Bank (2021a), The World Bank (2021b) and Authors’ Calculation.

Table 3. Number of years method in different scenarios

Scenarios	[1] Original Equation (Eqn.3)	[2] Using GNI instead of GDP in Eqn.3	[3] Using Real Growth Rate instead of Nominal Growth Rate in Eqn.3	[4] Using both GNI and Real Growth Rate in Eqn.3
Equation Used	$\frac{ln\left(\frac{MinimumGNI\left(2020\right)}{GDP\left(2020\right)}\right)}{ln\left(1+Ave.Gr.\right)}$	$\frac{ln\left(\frac{MinimumGNI\left(2020\right)}{GNI\left(2020\right)}\right)}{ln\left(1+Ave.Gr.\right)}$	$\frac{ln\left(\frac{MinimumGNI\left(2020\right)}{GDP\left(2020\right)}\right)}{ln\left(1+Ave.RealGr.\right)}$	$\frac{ln\left(\frac{MinimumGNI\left(2020\right)}{GNI\left(2020\right)}\right)}{ln\left(1+Ave.RealGr.\right)}$
Time required to become an upper-middle-income economy	7.7853 years	7.5614 years	45.3974 years	44.0919 years
Time required to become a high-income economy	20.0081 years	19.7842 years	116.6708 years	115.3653 years

Source: Authors’ Calculation.

Table 1. The World Bank country classification by income level

Threshold	GNI/Capita (Current US$)
Low-Income	Less than 1,036
Lower-Middle-Income	1,036–4,045
Upper-Middle-Income	4,046–12,535
High-Income	12,536 or above

Source: Serajuddin and Hamadeh (2020).

Table 4. Catch-up growth method of sustained high growth

Decades	Average Nominal GNI/Capita Growth Rate		Average Real GNI/Capita Growth Rate
	Singapore	Bangladesh	Singapore	Bangladesh
1981–1990	9.32%	3.58%	−0.31%	−6.06%
1991–2000	7.99%	3.30%	2.85%	−1.84%
2001–2010	6.88%	6.23%	1.25%	0.61%
2011–2020	2.13%	9.69%	−5.96%	1.60%

Source: Authors’ Calculation.

Figure 1. Nominal and real GNI/Capita growth rates of Bangladesh (source: The World Bank, 2021a).

Figure 2. Nominal and real GDP/Capita growth rates of Bangladesh (source: The World Bank, 2021b).

The World Bank. (2021a), “DataBank | World development indicators”, Retrieved July 18, 2021) https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators

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The World Bank. (2021b), “DataBank | World development indicators”, Retrieved July 19, 2021) https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG&country

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Serajuddin, U., & Hamadeh, N. (2020), “New World Bank country classifications by income level: 2020-2021”, available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2020-2021 Retrieved July 10, 2022)

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