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Politics & International Relations

Impact of political uncertainty on stock market returns: the case of post-revolution Tunisia

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Article: 2324525 | Received 09 Jul 2023, Accepted 24 Feb 2024, Published online: 11 Mar 2024

Figures & data

Table 1. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following popular uprising.

Table 2. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following democratic transition.

Table 3. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following partisan conflicts.

Table 4. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following constitution-making.

Table 5. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following political strikes.

Table 6. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following establishment democratic institutions.

Table 7. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following elections.

Figure 1. Average abnormal returns and cumulative average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following major political events during the period 2010–2015, event window (−1, 5).

Figure 1. Average abnormal returns and cumulative average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following major political events during the period 2010–2015, event window (−1, 5).

Table 8. Average abnormal returns of TUNINDEX following terrorist attacks.

Table 9. Descriptive statistics of the Tunisian stock market returns.

Table 10. The impact of political event type on the TUNINDEX returns during 2010–2015.

Table 11. Nyblom test for parameter stability.

Figure 2. Time series plot of the TUNINDEX alongside the occurrences of major political events. Notes: 1-Immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, 2-demonstrations spread to provincial towns, 3-Violent repression of demonstrators resulting in 14 deaths, 4-Flight of Ben Ali, 5-Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamist movement Ennahda returned to Tunisia, 6-Request extradition of Ben Ali and his wife, 7-Demonstrations demanding the resignation of the prime minister, 8-Nomination of the third provisional government, 9-Legalisation of Moncef Marzouki’s party, the Congress for the Republic, 10-election of the National Constituent Assembly, 11-violent clashes between police and demonstrators, 12-attack on the premises of the US embassy, 13-General Strike in Siliana called by The Tunisian General Labour Union, 14-Feriana attack, 15-Chokri Belaid assassination, 16-Bomb explosion in Chaambi Mount, 17-Mohamed Brahmi assassination, 18-Death of 8 soldiers following an ambush, 19-Adoption of the new Constitution of the Tunisian Republic, 20-Violent confratations of Raoued, 20- and 21-Explosion of two landmines in Chaambi Mount, 22-Sbeitla, Hydra and Sammama Attacks, 23-Violent confrontations of Chabaou, 24-Beji Caïd Essebsi, leader of the anti-Islamist party Nidaa Tounès, won the first legislative election, 25-Nibber Attack, 26-President Beji Caïd Essebsi instructs the former minister to form a new government, 27-Bardo museum attack, 28-Sousse attack.

Figure 2. Time series plot of the TUNINDEX alongside the occurrences of major political events. Notes: 1-Immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, 2-demonstrations spread to provincial towns, 3-Violent repression of demonstrators resulting in 14 deaths, 4-Flight of Ben Ali, 5-Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamist movement Ennahda returned to Tunisia, 6-Request extradition of Ben Ali and his wife, 7-Demonstrations demanding the resignation of the prime minister, 8-Nomination of the third provisional government, 9-Legalisation of Moncef Marzouki’s party, the Congress for the Republic, 10-election of the National Constituent Assembly, 11-violent clashes between police and demonstrators, 12-attack on the premises of the US embassy, 13-General Strike in Siliana called by The Tunisian General Labour Union, 14-Feriana attack, 15-Chokri Belaid assassination, 16-Bomb explosion in Chaambi Mount, 17-Mohamed Brahmi assassination, 18-Death of 8 soldiers following an ambush, 19-Adoption of the new Constitution of the Tunisian Republic, 20-Violent confratations of Raoued, 20- and 21-Explosion of two landmines in Chaambi Mount, 22-Sbeitla, Hydra and Sammama Attacks, 23-Violent confrontations of Chabaou, 24-Beji Caïd Essebsi, leader of the anti-Islamist party Nidaa Tounès, won the first legislative election, 25-Nibber Attack, 26-President Beji Caïd Essebsi instructs the former minister to form a new government, 27-Bardo museum attack, 28-Sousse attack.