Analysis of vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity among productive social safety net program participants in Tanzania

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	Sex / Location		t statistic /χ2 statistic	P-value
	Female	Male
Panel A:
Age of HH head (Years)	58.33	52.85	−52.92	0.000
Family size (adult equivalent)	4.57	5.62	68.28	0.000
Dependency ratio (ratio)	1.67	1.55	−16.12	0.000
Received education subsidy (1 = yes)	2.65	3.00	4.67	0.000
Received health subsidy (1 = yes)	2.17	1.82	23.22	0.000
Received credit (1 = yes)	0.32	2.37	98.55	0.000
Having occupation (1 = yes)	0.41	0.77	2.96	0.000
Panel B:	Urban	Rural
Age of HH head (Years)	56.36	54.83	−13.40	0.000
Family size (adult equivalent)	5.02	5.22	9.12	0.000
Dependency ratio (ratio)	1.34	1.67	37.76	0.000
Received education subsidy (1 = yes)	1.82	3.83	31.32	0.000
Received health subsidy (1 = yes)	0.28	3.71	53.02	0.000
Received credit (1 = yes)	0.32	2.38	17.17	0.000
Having occupation (1 = yes)	0.57	0.61	43.66	0.000
Panel C:	PSSN	Non-PSSN
Vulnerability to poverty (VP Index)	0.34	0.39	−31.47	0.000
Vulnerability to food insecurity (VFI Index)	0.41	0.46	−32.13	0.000

Table 2. Classification of households’ vulnerability status.

		Vulnerability to poverty			Vulnerability to food insecurity
		High	L ow	χ2-value	High	Low	χ2-value
Panel A: PSSN
Sex of household head	Female	4.7	37.6		5.5	36.8
	Male	9.1	48.5		14.7	43.0
	Total	13.9	86.1	42.1***	20.2	79.8	221.3***
Location	Urban	0.6	21.8		1.7	20.7
	Rural	13.3	64.3		18.5	59.1
	Total	13.9	86.1	279.4***	20.2	79.8	267.6***
Panel B: CCTs Only
Sex of household head	Female	5.0	38.1		5.8	37.3
	Male	9.7	47.2		14.8	42.1
	Total	14.7	85.3	53.8***	20.6	79.4	218.7***
Location	Urban	0.7	22.3		1.8	21.1
	Rural	14.1	63.0		18.8	58.3
	Total	14.7	85.3	311.0***	20.6	79.4	277.3***
Panel C: CCTs + PWs
Sex of household head	Female	1.7	35.3		1.7	35.2
	Male	9.0	54.0		15.2	47.9
	Total	10.7	89.3	202.7***	16.9	83.1	532.8***
Location	Urban	1.2	16.3		2.1	15.4
	Rural	9.5	73.0		14.8	67.7
	Total	10.7	89.3	27.0***	16.9	83.1	31.0***

Note. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Figures are in percent.

Table 3. Determinants of VP and VFI among PSSN program participants.

Explanatory Variable	Dependent Variable: VP			Dependent Variable: VFI
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(1)	(2)	(3)
Age of HH head	0.0010*** (0.0000)	0.0010*** (0.0000)	0.0010*** (0.0000)	0.0001*** (0.0000)	0.0001*** (0.0000)	0.0001*** (0.0000)
Sex of HH head	−0.0224*** (0.0002)	−0.0235*** (0.0002)	−0.0264*** (0.0006)	−0.0189*** (0.0003)	−0.0192*** (0.0004)	−0.0261*** (0.0004)
Marital status	−0.0219*** (0.0003)	−0.0223*** (0.0002)	−0.0208*** (0.0006)	−0.0452*** (0.0003)	−0.0451*** (0.0003)	−0.0466*** (0.0004)
Family size	0.0564*** (0.0001)	0.0568*** (0.0001)	0.0548*** (0.0002)	0.0647*** (0.0001)	0.0647*** (0.0001)	0.0683*** (0.0001)
Dependency ratio	0.0494*** (0.0001)	0.0503*** (0.0001)	0.0464*** (0.0002)	0.0424*** (0.0001)	0.0426*** (0.0001)	0.0408*** (0.0001)
Location	0.1524*** (0.0004)	0.1532*** (0.0004)	0.1420*** (0.0007)	0.1138*** (0.0002)	0.1146*** (0.0002)	0.1067*** (0.0005)
Credit	−0.1310*** (0.0009)	−0.1374*** (0.0008)	−0.1110*** (0.0015)	−0.0915*** (0.0004)	−0.0980*** (0.0003)	−0.0798*** (0.0009)
Business ownership	−0.0032*** (0.0003)	−0.0027*** (0.0003)	−0.0059*** (0.0005)	−0.0001 (0.0002)	−0.0002 (0.0002)	0.0003 (0.0003)
Livestock ownership	−0.0812*** (0.0002)	−0.0822*** (0.0002)	−0.0794*** (0.0003)	−0.0766*** (0.0002)	−0.0772*** (0.0002)	−0.0742*** (0.0003)
Occupation	−0.1565*** (0.0022)	−0.2033*** (0.0022)	−0.1561*** (0.0030)	−0.1561*** (0.0011)	−0.1746*** (0.0008)	−0.1620*** (0.0017)
Education subsidy	−0.0207*** (0.0003)	−0.0191*** (0.0003)	−0.0192*** (0.0005)	0.0072*** (0.0002)	0.0077*** (0.0002)	0.0044*** (0.0003)
Health Subsidy	−0.0171*** (0.0003)	−0.0167*** (0.0003)	−0.0117*** (0.0005)	0.0104*** (0.0002)	0.0106*** (0.0002)	0.0202*** (0.0004)
Food assistance	−0.2126*** (0.0019)	−0.2277*** (0.0022)	−0.1724*** (0.0005)	−0.1394*** (0.0008)	−0.1313*** (0.0011)	−0.1576*** (0.0004)

Note. **, **, and * denote the statistically significant variables at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. The figures in parentheses are the standard errors. Columns (1), (2), and (3) are Average Marginal Effects (AME). Columns (2) and (3) are robustness checks. They show that the effect of explanatory variables on dependent variables in the regression is the same, regardless of whether households are enrolled in CCTs only (Model 2) or in PWs and CCTs (Model 3). The interpretation of the results and discussion are based on Model (1).

Table B1. Determinants of Vulnerability to Poverty and Food Insecurity among PSSN Program Beneficiaries.

Explanatory Variable	Vulnerability to Poverty				Vulnerability to food insecurity
	AME	SE	t	P>|t|	AME	SE	t	P>|t|
Age of HH HEAD	0.0010	0.0000	117.84	0.000	0.0001	0.0000	25.17	0.000
Sex of HH head	−0.0224	0.0002	−102.24	0.000	−0.0189	0.0003	−54.24	0.000
Marital status	−0.0219	0.0003	−86.29	0.000	−0.0452	0.0003	167.54	0.000
Family size	0.0564	0.0001	922.68	0.000	0.0647	0.0001	492.61	0.000
Dependency ratio	0.0494	0.0001	410.88	0.000	0.0424	0.0001	576.4	0.000
Location	0.1524	0.0004	407.98	0.000	0.1138	0.0002	513.58	0.000
Credit	−0.1310	0.0009	−153.49	0.000	−0.0915	0.0004	225.78	0.000
Business ownership	−0.0032	0.0003	−11.01	0.000	−0.0001	0.0002	−0.27	0.789
Livestock ownership	−0.0812	0.0002	−404.98	0.000	−0.0766	0.0002	499.78	0.000
Occupation	−0.1565	0.0022	−69.61	0.000	−0.1561	0.0011	145.61	0.000
Education subsidy	−0.0207	0.0003	−68.08	0.000	0.0072	0.0002	36.01	0.000
Health Subsidy	−0.0171	0.0003	−55.72	0.000	0.0104	0.0002	48.49	0.000
Food assistance	−0.2126	0.0019	−112.69	0.000	−0.1394	0.0008	177.64	0.000
Number of obs.		844			Number of obs.			844
F(13, 733)		113722			F(13, 733)			84965
Prob > F		0.000			Prob > F			0.000
Number of strata		51			Number of strata			51
Number of PSUs		796			Number of PSUs			796
Design df		745			Design df			745

Table B2. Determinants of VP and VFI - Robustness check with sample restricted to household enrolled to CCTs only.

Explanatory variable	Vulnerability to poverty				Vulnerability to food insecurity
	AME	SE	t	P>|t|	AME	SE	t	P>|t|
Age of HH head	0.0010	0.0000	111.83	0.000	0.0001	0.0000	21.55	0.000
Sex of HH head	−0.0235	0.0002	105.37	0.000	−0.0192	0.0004	−52.13	0.000
Marital status	−0.0223	0.0002	−92.67	0.000	−0.0451	0.0003	161.05	0.000
Family size	0.0568	0.0001	914.71	0.000	0.0647	0.0001	482.61	0.000
Dependency ratio	0.0503	0.0001	406.23	0.000	0.0426	0.0001	548.78	0.000
Location	0.1532	0.0004	409.40	0.000	0.1146	0.0002	521.28	0.000
Credit	−0.1374	0.0008	182.61	0.000	−0.0980	0.0003	302.95	0.000
Business ownership	−0.0027	0.0003	−9.07	0.000	−0.0002	0.0002	−0.95	0.344
Livestock ownership	−0.0822	0.0002	403.45	0.000	−0.0772	0.0002	484.33	0.000
Occupation	−0.2033	0.0022	−92.27	0.000	−0.1746	0.0008	213.55	0.000
Education subsidy	−0.0191	0.0003	−59.77	0.000	0.0077	0.0002	40.23	0.000
Health Subsidy	−0.0167	0.0003	−56.16	0.000	0.0106	0.0002	48.79	0.000
Food assistance	−0.2277	0.0022	105.92	0.000	−0.1313	0.0011	116.17	0.000
Number of obs.		802			Number of obs.			802
F(13, 733)		109226			F(13, 733)			87085
Prob > F		0.000			Prob > F			0.000
Number of strata		51			Number of strata			51
Number of PSUs		796			Number of PSUs			796
Design df		745			Design df			745

Table B3. Determinants of VP and VFI - robustness check with sample restricted to household enrolled to CCTs + PWs.

Explanatory variable	Vulnerability to poverty				Vulnerability to food insecurity
	AME	SE	t	P>|t|	AME	SE	t	P>|t|
Age of HH head	0.0010	0.0000	94.7	0.000	0.0001	0.0000	15.5	0.000
Sex of HH head	−0.0264	0.0006	−42.5	0.000	−0.0261	0.0004	−68.6	0.000
Marital status	−0.0208	0.0006	−37.6	0.000	−0.0466	0.0004	126.7	0.000
Family size	0.0548	0.0002	300.1	0.000	0.0683	0.0001	916.6	0.000
Dependency ratio	0.0464	0.0002	202.8	0.000	0.0408	0.0001	287.5	0.000
Location	0.1420	0.0007	195.1	0.000	0.1067	0.0005	215.3	0.000
Credit	−0.1110	0.0015	−76.2	0.000	−0.0798	0.0009	−88.1	0.000
Business ownership	−0.0059	0.0005	−12.1	0.000	0.0003	0.0003	1.0	0.310
Livestock ownership	−0.0794	0.0003	235.1	0.000	−0.0742	0.0003	271.7	0.000
Occupation	−0.1561	0.0030	−52.7	0.000	−0.1620	0.0017	−94.3	0.000
Education subsidy	−0.0192	0.0005	−36.1	0.000	0.0044	0.0003	13.2	0.000
Health Subsidy	−0.0117	0.0005	−21.4	0.000	0.0202	0.0004	54.6	0.000
Food assistance	−0.1724	0.0005	350.5	0.000	−0.1576	0.0004	445.4	0.000
Number of obs.		251			Number of obs.			251
F(13, 733)		263465			F(13, 733)			387186
Prob > F		0.000			Prob > F			0.000
Number of strata		42			Number of strata			42
Number of PSUs		726			Number of PSUs			726
Design df		684			Design df			684

Note. 9 strata omitted because they contain no subpopulation members.

Table

	Vulnerability to Poverty				Vulnerability to food insecurity
Variable of interest	Mean				Mean
	(1)	(0)	t	P>|t|	(1)	(0)	t	P>|t|
Sex (1 = male)	0.318 (0.0010)	0.266 (0.0009)	49.4	0.000	0.380 (0.0009)	0.296 (0.0010)	81.2	0.000
Marital (1 = not married)	0.252 (0.0010)	0.325 (0.0008)	−69.9	0.000	0.277 (0.0009)	0.389 (0.0008)	−110.9	0.000
Location (1 = rural)	0.328 (0.0008)	0.186 (0.0008)	126.6	0.000	0.369 (0.0008)	0.258 (0.0012)	76.5	0.000
Credit (1 = received credit)	0.144 (0.0022)	0.300 (0.0008)	−71.6	0.000	0.239 (0.0029)	0.347 (0.0008)	−37.6	0.000
Business Ownership (1 = owning)	0.265 (0.0013)	0.303 (0.0009)	−27.6	0.000	0.328 (0.0014)	0.348 (0.0009)	−13.9	0.000
Livestock (1 = own livestock	0.308 (0.0011)	0.283 (0.0009)	18.3	0.000	0.357 (0.0011)	0.331 (0.0010)	18.5	0.000
Occupation (1 = had occupation)	0.100 (0.0021)	0.298 (0.0008)	−87.5	0.000	0.193 (0.0037)	0.346 (0.0008	−40.5	0.000
Education Subsidy (1 = received)	0.241 (0.0011)	0.299 (0.0008)	−42.6	0.000	0.324 (0.0011)	0.346 (0.0009	15.0	0.000
Health Subsidy (1 = received)	0.227 (0.0015)	0.299 (0.0008)	−40.9	0.000	0.287 (0.0020)	0.347 (0.0008)	−27.6	0.000
Food assistance (1 = received)	0.265 (0.0072)	0.296 (0.0008)	−4.3	0.000	0.376 (0.0091)	0.344 (0.0008)	3.5	0.001
Number of strata:	51				Number of strata: Number of PSUs: Design df Subpop. no. obs:		51
Number of PSUs:	796						796
Design df	745						745
Subpop. no. obs:	844						844

Data access statement

Research data supporting this publication are available from the National Bureau of Statistics repository located at: https://www.nbs.go.tz/index.php/en/census-surveys/poverty-indicators-statistics/household-budget-survey-hbs/477-the-2017-18-household-budget-survey-dataset