Propagandizing the treatise of wealth redistribution: an SMME story

Figures & data

Table 1. Programme spending and allocations in the budget of the national Department of Social Development, 2022/23 to 2025/26 (ZAR million).

ZAR million	2022/23 Revised estimate	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	Real change between 2022/23 and 2023/24 (%)	Real average annual change over MTEF (%)
		MTEF budgeted estimates
Administration	423.5	426.6	445.6	465.3	0.73	0.33
Social assistance	248,294.6	253,841.8	232,922.9	248,407.9	2.24	0.15
Social security policy and administration	7,614.5	8,086.5	8,031.6	8,391.3	6.20	3.40
Welfare services policy development and implementation support	309.1	312.8	326.7	341.2	1.20	0.34
Social policy and integrated service delivery	359.6	361.6	377.8	394.6	0.56	0.32
Total	257,001.4	263,029.2	242,104.5	258,000.3	2.35	0.13

Source: National Treasury, 2023.

Table 2. Nominal values of key social grants in 2023/24 (ZAR billion).

Social grant	ZAR billion	Beneficiaries	ZAR value of average monthly grant values	% of total MTEF grant allocation
Old age grant	99.1	Adults: 60 years+	2,085 (60–74) and 2,105 (75+)	38.3%
Child support grant	81.9	Children: 0–17 years	505	31.4%
Disability grant	26.8	Adults: 18–59 years	2,085	10.2%
Foster child grant	3.8	Children and adults: 0–21 years	1,125	1.3%
Care dependency grant	4.1	Children: 0–17 years	2,085	1.6%
Grant-in-aid	2.1	Varies	505	0.9%
Social relief of distress	36.1	Varies	Varies	4.4%

Source: National Treasury, 2023.

Figure 1. Conceptual model.

Table 3. Variable description and measurement.

S/N	Variable	Description	Source
1.	DomCreditBanks	Domestic credit to the private sector by banks as a percentage of the GDP	WDI
2.	EcoFreedom	Index of Economic Freedom	Heritage Foundation
3.	ExchangeR	Official annualized exchange rate measured by the average local currency unit (LCU) per US$	WDI
4.	ExternalDebt	External debt stocks, measured as a variable interest rate conveying information about the country’s exposure to changes in international interest rates	WDI
5.	FiscalYInequality	Total fiscal income inequality as a percentage of the total population	WIR
6.	GDPc	GDP of South Africa measured by current US $ value	WDI
7.	GDPgr	Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency	WDI
8.	GDPpc	GDP per capita at current US $, which is the GDP divided by midyear population	WDI
9.	GDPpcPPP	GDP per capita, purchasing power parity (PPP) at current international US $, which is the PPP converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates	WDI
10.	GFCF_GDP	Gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of the GDP of South Africa—this comprises all fixed investments in infrastructure that are being made in the country	WDI
11.	GFCFcurrent	Gross fixed capital formation in current US $ in South Africa	WDI
12.	GiniIndex	The Gini index (World Bank estimate) measures the extent to which the distribution of income and/or consumption expenditure among individuals or households in South Africa deviates from a perfectly equal distribution	WDI
13.	GovExpEducation	Total government expenditure on education (including all current spending, capital expenditure, and transfers) expressed as a percentage of South Africa’s GDP	WDI
14.	HealthExpend	Level of current health expenditure expressed as a percentage of GDP	WDI
15.	InflationR	Level of inflation is measured as a percentage of the annual percentage change in consumer prices in the country	WDI
16.	InternetUsers	Number of individuals using the Internet as a percentage of the population via a computer, mobile phone, personal digital assistant, games machine, digital TV etcetera	WDI
17.	LendingRate	Lending rate is the bank rate that usually meets the short-term and medium-term financing needs of the private sector—differentiated according to the creditworthiness of borrowers, as well as the objectives of financing	WDI
18.	NetBorrowing	Total net lending (+) / net borrowing (–) equal to government revenue minus expense, minus net investment in nonfinancial assets. It is a summary measure indicating the extent to which the government is either putting or utilizing financial resources that are either generated by other sectors or are at the disposal of other sectors in the economy or abroad	WDI
19.	PovertyGap	Poverty gap at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (%), which is the mean shortfall in income or consumption from the poverty line $1.90 a day, expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. This measure reflects the depth of poverty as well as its incidence	WDI
20.	SecondaryEdu	Total number of pupils enrolled at secondary level in public and private schools	WDI
21.	SocialBudget	Consolidated government expenditure on social protection	National Treasury
22.	SMMEs	Total number of SMMEs in South Africa	DSBD
23.	TaxRev	Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP	WDI
24.	TEArate	TEA rate of South Africa	GEM
25.	UnemployR	Share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment	WDI

Note. WDI stands for World Development Indicators; WIR stands for World Inequality Report; GEM stands for Global Entrepreneurship Monitor; DSBD stands for Department of Small Business Development.

Table 4. OLS regression analysis.

		1995–2010				1995–2023
	Model 1A	Model 2A	Model 3A	Model 4A	Model 1B	Model 2B	Model 3B	Model 4B	Model 4C
Intercept	–27.08 (30.64)	–25.91 (10.79)**	1.96 (12.93)	13.68 (14.80)	25.23 (24.98)	3.85 (24.39)	–3.72 (14.36)	17.14 (13.92)	122.94 (51.20)*
DomCreditBanks			0.01 (0.07)				0.00 (0.01)		0.05 (0.02)*
EcoFreedom		0.11 (0.06)*				0.12 (0.13)			–0.10 (0.24)
ExchangeR	0.17 (0.22)				–0.01 (0.11)				–0.05 (0.50)
ExternalDebt			–0.03 (0.04)	0.01 (0.03)			0.01 (0.03)	–0.01 (0.02)	–0.10 (0.03)**
FiscalYInequality	–08.20 (0.18)	–0.39 (0.07)***		–0.28 (0.14)*	–0.11 (0.09)	–0.10 (0.13)		0.02 (0.16)	0.57 (0.25)*
GDPc				0.48 (0.11)***				–0.04 (0.07)	–0.00 (0.18)
GDPgr				0.50 (0.13)***				–0.05 (0.11)	–0.53 (0.20)**
GDPpc		0.02 (0.16)		–22.48 (5.00)***		0.36 (0.30)		0.77 (3.54)	–6.29 (7.71)
GDPpcPPP				–2.66 (0.77)***				0.32 (0.66)	–3.76 (2.41)
GFCF_GDP			0.28 (0.24)	1.03 (0.80)			–0.41 (0.20)*	–0.87 (0.54)*	–3.31 (0.58)***
GFCFcurrent			–0.01 (0.04)	–0.09 (0.28)			0.04 (0.04)	0.21 (0.15)	1.10 (0.20)***
GiniIndex	0.26 (0.27)	–0.13 (0.09)		0.22 (0.18)	–0.24 (0.28)	–0.08 (0.26)		–0.12 (0.23)	–0.80 (0.41)*
GovExpEducation			1.74 (0.92)*				–0.24 (1.14)		–6.25 (3.11)*
HealthExpend			–1.36 (2.24)				1.08 (1.74)		–5.44 (1.96)**
InflationR	–0.28 (0.14)*				–0.25 (0.13)*				–0.16 (0.12)
InternetUsers			0.37 (0.12)**				–0.06 (0.07)		0.18 (0.09)*
LendingRate	0.22 (0.15)				0.11 (0.13)				0.32 (0.13)*
NetBorrowing			0.09 (0.33)				0.08 (0.18)		0.51 (0.32)
PovertyGap	–0.04 (0.49)	–0.02 (0.14)			–0.63 (0.31)*	–0.24 (0.28)			–0.52 (0.36)
SecondaryEdu			–0.94 (1.76)				0.97 (2.19)		3.16 (3.55)
SocialBudget	0.01 (0.03)	0.05 (0.01)***			–0.01 (0.01)	–0.00 (0.01)			0.02 (0.01)*
TaxRev		1.16 (0.11)***				–0.06 (0.25)			–0.49 (0.60)
TEArate	0.60 (0.32)*				0.05 (0.11)				–0.02 (0.11)
UnemployR	0.60 (0.38)	1.41 (0.11)***			0.30 (0.15)*	0.23 (0.17)			2.05 (0.35)***
Year effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
No. of observations	400	400	400	400	725	725	725	725	725
N	16	16	16	16	29	29	29	29	29
Log-likelihood	–8.49	8.38	–4.23	–3.59	–31.40	–32.74	–32.85	–32.42	12.82
R^2	0.87	0.98	0.93	0.93	0.44	0.38	0.38	0.40	0.97
Adjusted R^2	0.68	0.97	0.81	0.82	0.17	0.14	0.08	0.11	0.81
Sum squared resid	2.71	0.33	1.59	1.47	14.80	–32.74	16.37	15.89	0.70
F-statistic	4.51**	55.11***	8.16***	8.89***	1.65	1.55	1.29	1.39	6.09**

Note. Standardized coefficients are reported; however, standard errors are in the parentheses; * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 denote the significance at the 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

Figure A1. Influence statistics for Hypothesis 1 variables.

Figure A2. Influence statistics for Hypothesis 2 variables.

Figure A3. Influence statistics for Hypothesis 3 variables.

Figure A4. Influence statistics for Hypothesis 4 variables.

Table A1. Descriptive statistics and correlations.

	Mean	Median	Max	Min	S.D	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
1. Domestic Credit by Banks to Firms	56.01	60.22	70.38	–5.11	17.58	1.00	0.66	–0.43	–0.26	–0.10	–0.15	0.02	–0.04
2. Index of Economic Freedom	62.32	62.80	67.10	55.70	2.53	0.66	1.00	–0.68	–0.65	–0.52	–0.47	0.34	–0.35
3. Exchange Rate	9.55	8.26	14.46	3.63	3.94	–0.43	–0.68	1.00	0.85	0.68	0.58	–0.51	0.41
4. External Debt Stocks	97.42	84.38	190.74	25.36	61.56	–0.26	–0.65	0.85	1.00	0.92	0.88	–0.45	0.77
5. Fiscal Income Inequality	77.36	81.04	85.11	65.01	80.00	–0.10	–0.52	0.68	0.92	1.00	0.96	–0.34	0.91
6. GDP at Current US $ Price	301.95	329.75	458.20	129.09	108.43	–0.15	–0.47	0.58	0.88	0.96	1.00	–0.19	0.98
7. GDP Growth Rate	2.38	2.60	5.60	–5.96	2.31	0.02	0.34	–0.51	–0.45	–0.34	–0.19	1.00	–0.09
8. GDP Per Capita	5.71	6.21	8.74	2.71	1.74	–0.04	–0.35	0.41	0.77	0.91	0.98	–0.09	1.00
9. GDP per capita PPP	11.62	12.66	15.92	6.96	2.83	–0.30	–0.59	0.81	0.93	0.96	0.93	–0.30	0.85
10. Gross Fixed Capital Formation % GDP	16.34	15.92	21.62	13.18	2.00	0.45	0.29	–0.26	0.04	0.37	0.32	0.03	0.44
11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation US $	50.00	56.44	81.60	18.11	19.99	0.04	–0.28	0.39	0.74	0.92	0.95	–0.14	0.97
12. Gini Index	61.86	63.00	64.80	57.80	2.24	–0.00	–0.23	0.54	0.65	0.78	0.79	–0.08	0.79
13. Govt. Expenditure on Education	5.21	5.17	6.56	4.35	0.61	–0.45	–0.81	0.74	0.79	0.59	0.55	–0.47	0.40
14. Health Expenditure % GDP	7.65	7.65	8.58	6.68	0.59	–0.40	–0.77	0.78	0.88	0.76	0.70	–0.56	0.58
15. Inflation Rate	5.67	5.70	10.08	–0.69	2.22	–0.18	–0.12	–0.09	–0.17	–0.17	–0.26	–0.04	–0.27
16. Internet Users % of Population	29.71	10.00	72.31	0.68	27.48	–0.39	–0.73	0.92	0.96	0.82	0.76	–0.46	0.62
17. Lending Rate	12.32	10.63	21.79	7.04	4.04	0.15	0.43	–0.69	–0.81	–0.83	–0.86	0.20	–0.80
18. Net Borrowing	–3.43	–4.18	0.93	–9.87	2.33	0.25	0.59	–0.54	–0.66	–0.48	–0.45	0.71	–0.35
19. Poverty Gap	9.00	6.90	14.30	5.40	3.33	0.01	0.36	–0.60	–0.79	–0.93	–0.91	0.26	–0.90
20. Secondary Pupil Enrolment	4.43	4.53	4.91	3.75	0.33	–0.11	–0.41	0.75	0.87	0.93	0.87	–0.30	0.81
21. SMMEs	2.23	2.25	5.98	0.84	0.97	–0.05	–0.15	0.26	0.41	0.44	0.52	–0.04	0.52
22. Social Budget	141.20	118.20	413.30	15.20	119.63	–0.47	–0.79	0.90	0.90	0.77	0.73	–0.49	0.59
23. Tax Revenue % GDP	23.19	23.24	25.85	20.30	1.77	–0.28	–0.59	0.74	0.81	0.85	0.78	–0.11	0.69
24. TEA Rate	8.08	6.90	17.49	4.21	2.92	–0.14	–0.63	0.70	0.75	0.62	0.58	–0.36	0.46
25. Unemployment Rate	22.30	20.75	29.81	19.51	3.00	–0.68	–0.85	0.83	0.79	0.61	0.59	–0.30	0.44

Table

	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
1. Domestic Credit by Banks to Firms	–0.30	0.45	0.04	–0.00	–0.45	–0.40	–0.18	–0.39	0.15	0.25	0.01	–0.11	–0.05	–0.47	–0.27	–0.14	–0.68
2. Index of Economic Freedom	–0.59	0.29	–0.28	–0.23	–0.81	–0.77	–0.12	–0.73	0.43	0.59	0.36	–0.41	–0.15	–0.79	–0.59	–0.63	–0.85
3. Exchange Rate	0.81	–0.26	0.39	0.54	0.74	0.78	–0.09	0.92	–0.69	–0.54	–0.60	0.75	0.26	0.90	0.74	0.70	0.83
4. External Debt Stocks	0.93	0.04	0.74	0.65	0.79	0.88	–0.17	0.96	–0.81	–0.66	–0.79	0.87	0.41	0.90	0.81	0.75	0.79
5. Fiscal Income Inequality	0.96	0.37	0.92	0.78	0.59	0.76	–0.17	0.82	–0.83	–0.48	–0.93	0.93	0.44	0.77	0.85	0.62	0.61
6. GDP at Current US $ Price	0.93	0.32	0.95	0.79	0.55	0.70	–0.26	0.76	–0.86	−0.45	–0.91	0.87	0.52	0.73	0.78	0.58	0.59
7. GDP Growth Rate	–0.30	0.03	–0.14	–0.08	–0.47	–0.56	–0.04	–0.46	0.20	0.71	0.26	–0.30	–0.04	–0.49	–0.11	–0.36	–0.30
8. GDP Per Capita	0.85	0.44	0.97	0.79	0.40	0.58	–0.27	0.62	–0.80	–0.35	–0.90	0.81	0.52	0.59	0.69	0.46	0.44
9. GDP per capita PPP	1.00	0.19	0.84	0.82	0.61	0.76	–0.18	0.87	–0.87	–0.45	–0.92	0.93	0.46	0.85	0.89	0.63	0.73
10. Gross Fixed Capital Formation % GDP	0.19	1.00	0.60	0.33	–0.36	–0.14	0.23	–0.18	–0.04	0.23	–0.46	0.26	0.08	–0.25	0.18	–0.25	–0.38
11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation US $	0.84	0.60	1.00	0.78	0.32	0.53	–0.15	0.57	–0.74	–0.29	–0.92	0.82	0.48	0.51	0.69	0.39	0.35
12. Gini Index	0.82	0.33	0.78	1.00	0.15	0.32	–0.33	0.53	–0.84	–0.07	–0.91	0.84	0.43	0.55	0.70	0.32	0.32
13. Govt. Expenditure on Education	0.61	–0.36	0.32	0.15	1.00	0.94	–0.06	0.87	–0.49	–0.78	–0.34	0.52	0.22	0.83	0.58	0.82	0.89
14. Health Expenditure % GDP	0.76	–0.14	0.53	0.32	0.94	1.00	–0.06	0.92	–0.64	–0.83	–0.55	0.65	0.30	0.86	0.64	0.80	0.87
15. Inflation Rate	–0.18	0.23	–0.15	–0.33	–0.06	–0.60	1.00	–0.18	0.48	0.04	0.15	–0.32	–0.27	–0.18	–0.14	–0.13	–0.03
16. Internet Users % of Population	0.87	–0.18	0.57	0.53	0.87	0.92	–0.18	1.00	–0.77	–0.69	–0.65	0.82	0.33	0.93	0.79	0.79	0.88
17. Lending Rate	–0.87	–0.04	–0.74	–0.84	–0.49	–0.64	0.48	–0.77	1.00	0.38	0.84	–0.86	–0.44	–0.74	–0.69	–0.56	–0.57
18. Net Borrowing	–0.45	0.23	–0.29	–0.07	–0.78	–0.83	0.04	–0.69	0.38	1.00	0.29	–0.34	–0.17	–0.68	–0.21	–0.68	–0.62
19. Poverty Gap	–0.92	–0.46	–0.92	–0.91	–0.34	–0.55	0.15	–0.65	0.83	0.29	1.00	–0.88	–0.48	–0.65	–0.76	–0.47	–0.44
20. Secondary Pupil Enrolment	0.93	0.26	0.82	0.84	0.52	0.65	–0.32	0.82	–0.86	–0.34	–0.88	1.00	0.42	0.73	0.88	0.53	0.57
21. SMMEs	0.46	0.08	0.48	0.43	0.22	0.30	–0.27	0.33	–0.44	–0.17	–0.48	0.41	1.00	0.33	0.33	0.28	0.32
22. Social Budget	0.85	–0.25	0.51	0.55	0.83	0.86	–0.18	0.93	–0.74	–0.68	–0.65	0.73	0.33	1.00	0.76	0.81	0.89
23. Tax Revenue % GDP	0.89	0.18	0.69	0.69	0.59	0.64	–0.14	0.79	–0.69	–0.21	–0.76	0.88	0.33	0.76	1.00	0.59	0.69
24. TEA Rate	0.63	–0.25	0.39	0.32	0.82	0.80	–0.13	0.79	–0.56	–0.68	–0.47	0.53	0.28	0.81	0.59	1.00	0.73
25. Unemployment Rate	0.73	–0.38	0.35	0.32	0.89	0.87	–0.03	0.88	–0.57	–0.62	–0.44	0.57	0.32	0.89	0.69	0.73	1.00

Note. The number of SMMEs in South Africa is expressed in ‘000,000; Fiscal income inequality is expressed in ‘000; Gross Fixed Capital Formation current US $ prices is expressed in ‘000,000,000; Secondary pupil enrolment is expressed in ‘000,000; GDP at current US $ price is expressed in ‘000,000,000; GDP per capita and GDP per capita PPP are expressed in ‘000; External debt stocks is expressed in ‘000,000,000.

Table A2. Pairwise Granger causality (2 lags) test.

	Observation	F-statistic	Direction
DomCreditBanks vs. SMMEs	27	2.87*	→
GDPpcPPP vs. SMMEs	27	2.37*	→
GFCF_GDP vs. SMMEs	27	7.11***	→
HealthExpend vs. SMMEs	27	3.55**	→
LendingRate vs. SMMEs	27	3.31*	→
NetBorrowing vs. SMMEs	27	2.32*	→
PovertyGap vs. SMMEs	27	4.20**	→
TaxRev vs. SMMEs	27	3.52*	→
EcoFreedom vs. DomCreditBanks	27	3.50**	→
ExchangeR vs. DomCreditBanks	27	3.74**	→
GDPgr vs. DomCreditBanks	27	10.92***	→
GFCF_GDP vs. DomCreditBanks	27	3.19*	→
GovExpEducation vs. DomCreditBanks	27	3.62**	→
HealthExpend vs. DomCreditBanks	27	2.56*	→
DomCreditBanks vs. HealthExpend	27	3.82**	←
InternetUsers vs. DomCreditBanks	27	2.16*	→
NetBorrowing vs. DomCreditBanks	27	10.57***	→
DomCreditBanks vs. NetBorrowing	27	4.23**	←
TaxRev vs. DomCreditBanks	27	3.99**	→
TeaRate vs. DomCreditBanks	27	8.81***	→
UnemployR vs. DomCreditBanks	27	13.28***	→
DomCreditBanks vs. UnemployR	27	2.57*	←
ExchangeR vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.85**	→
ExternalDebt vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.81**	→
GDPc vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.88**	→
EcoFreedom vs. GDPgr	27	2.16*	←
GDPpc vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.10*	→
GDPpcPPP vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.65**	→
GovExpEducation vs. EcoFreedom	27	4.26**	→
HealthExpend vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.83**	→
InflationR vs. EcoFreedom	27	4.34**	→
InternetUsers vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.62**	→
LendingRate vs. EcoFreedom	27	2.34*	→
NetBorrowing vs. EcoFreedom	27	2.47*	→
EcoFreedom vs. PovertyGap	27	2.59*	←
EcoFreedom vs. SocialBudget	27	4.16**	←
TaxRev vs. EcoFreedom	27	3.65**	→
TeaRate vs. EcoFreedom	27	11.33***	→
EcoFreedom vs. TeaRate	27	2.21*	←
UnemployR vs. EcoFreedom	27	8.50***	→
EcoFreedom vs. UnemployR	27	3.93**	←
ExternalDebt vs. ExchangeR	27	5.08**	→
ExchangeR vs. FiscalYInequality	27	2.42*	←
ExchangeR vs. GDPpcPPP	27	2.40*	←
ExchangeR vs. GFCF_GDP	27	2.12*	←
GovExpEducation vs. ExchangeR	27	3.57**	→
HealthExpend vs. ExchangeR	27	3.56**	→
InternetUsers vs. ExchangeR	27	6.91***	→
NetBorrowing vs. ExchangeR	27	3.19*	→
SocialBudget vs. ExchangeR	27	3.29*	→
ExchangeR vs. SocialBudget	27	2.19*	←
TaxRev vs. ExchangeR	27	6.75***	→
TeaRate vs. ExchangeR	27	2.60*	→
ExchangeR vs. TeaRate	27	2.52*	←
ExchangeR vs. UnEmployR	27	2.51*	←
FiscalYInequality vs. ExternalDebt	27	3.36**	→
ExternalDebt vs. GDPgr	27	2.83*	←
GDPpcPPP vs. ExternalDebt	27	3.89**	→
GiniIndex vs. ExternalDebt	27	2.24*	→
ExternalDebt vs. GovExpEducation	27	4.87**	←
ExternalDebt vs. HealthExpend	27	5.34***	←
ExternalDebt vs. InternetUsers	27	5.28***	←
ExternalDebt vs. NetBorrowing	27	7.01***	←
PovertyGap vs. ExternalDebt	27	4.24**	→
SecondaryEdu vs. ExternalDebt	27	2.29*	→
ExternalDebt vs. SocialBudget	27	2.26*	←
ExternalDebt vs. TaxRev	27	2.95*	←
ExternalDebt vs. TeaRate	27	5.32***	←
ExternalDebt vs. UnemployR	27	6.40***	←
GDPc vs. FiscalYInequality	27	2.19*	→
FiscalYInequality vs. GDPgr	27	4.31**	←
GDPpc vs. FiscalYInequality	27	2.47*	→
GDPpcPPP vs. FiscalYInequality	27	5.58***	→
FiscalYInequality vs. GFCF_GDP	27	4.68**	←
GiniIndex vs. FiscalYInequality	27	7.29***	→
FiscalYInequality vs. GovExpEducation	27	2.75*	←
FiscalYInequality vs. HealthExpend	27	5.35***	←
InflationR vs. FiscalYInequality	27	2.16*	→
FiscalYInequality vs. InternetUsers	27	5.48***	←
LendingRate vs. FiscalYInequality	27	2.49*	→
FiscalYInequality vs. NetBorrowing	27	5.55***	←
PovertyGap vs. FiscalYInequality	27	6.42***	→
FiscalYInequality vs. PovertyGap	27	2.78*	←
SecondaryEdu vs. FiscalYInequality	27	3.82**	→
FiscalYInequality vs. TaxRev	27	3.19*	←
FiscalYInequality vs. TeaRate	27	2.65*	←
GDPgr vs. GDPc	27	5.73***	→
GDPc vs. GDPgr	27	2.50*	←
GDPpc vs. GDPc	27	3.21*	→
GDPc vs. GDPpc	27	2.94*	←
GDPpcPPP vs. GDPc	27	6.19***	→
GDPc vs. GDPpcPPP	27	2.43*	←
GDPc vs. GFCF_GDP	27	3.15*	←
GiniIndex vs. GDPc	27	4.76**	→
GDPc vs. GovExpEducation	27	2.93*	←
GDPc vs. HealthExpend	27	2.94*	←
NetBorrowing vs. GDPc	27	6.02***	→
PovertyGap vs. GDPc	27	9.53***	→
GDPc vs. SecondaryEdu	27	2.24*	←
SocialBudget vs. GDPc	27	3.58**	→
TaxRev vs. GDPc	27	6.49***	→
GDPc vs. TaxRev	27	2.13*	←
GDPc vs. TeaRate	27	2.70*	←
GDPpc vs. GDPgr	27	2.38*	→
GDPgr vs. GDPpc	27	4.99**	←
GFCF_GDP vs. GDPgr	27	2.44*	→
GDPgr vs. GFCF_GDP	27	6.35***	←
GDPgr vs. GovExpEducation	27	8.54***	←
HealthExpend vs. GDPgr	27	2.21*	→
InflationR vs. GDPgr	27	2.19*	→
InternetUsers vs. GDPgr	27	3.27*	→
GDPgr vs. InternetUsers	27	3.32*	←
LendingRate vs. GDPgr	27	2.97*	→
SecondaryEdu vs. GDPgr	27	2.21*	→
TaxRev vs. GDPgr	27	2.68*	→
GDPgr vs. TeaRate	27	11.23***	←
UnemployR vs. GDPgr	27	2.13*	→
GDPgr vs. UnemployR	27	6.24***	←
GDPpcPPP vs. GDPpc	27	3.84**	→
GDPpc vs. GDPpcPPP	27	2.53*	←
GDPpc vs. GFCF_GDP	27	3.52**	←
GiniIndex vs. GDPpc	27	5.90***	→
GDPpc vs. GovExpEducation	27	2.33*	←
GDPpc vs. HealthExpend	27	2.36*	←
NetBorrowing vs. GDPpc	27	5.95***	→
PovertyGap vs. GDPpc	27	8.86***	→
SocialBudget vs. GDPpc	27	2.73*	→
TaxRev vs. GDPpc	27	6.39***	→
GFCFCurrent vs. GDPpcPPP	27	2.38*	→
GDPpcPPP vs. GovExpEducation	27	6.65***	←
GDPpcPPP vs. HealthExpend	27	4.40**	←
InflationR vs. GDPpcPPP	27	3.19*	→
GDPpcPPP vs. InternetUsers	27	7.07***	←
LendingRate vs. GDPpcPPP	27	4.76**	→
GDPpcPPP vs. LendingRate	27	4.96**	←
GDPpcPPP vs. NetBorrowing	27	3.68**	←
GDPpcPPP vs. TaxRev	27	3.30*	←
GDPpcPPP vs. TeaRate	27	14.24***	←
GDPpcPPP vs. UnemployR	27	4.11**	←
GFCFCurrent vs. GFCF_GDP	27	3.66**	→
GFCF_GDP vs. GovExpEducation	27	2.26*	←
InflationR vs. GFCF_GDP	27	2.58*	→
GFCF_GDP vs. NetBorrowing	27	2.13*	←
TaxRev vs. GFCF_GDP	27	2.53*	→
GFCF_GDP vs. TeaRate	27	2.47*	←
GiniIndex vs. GFCFCurrent	27	5.90***	→
GFCFCurrent vs. GovExpEducation	27	3.08*	←
GFCFCurrent vs. HealthExpend	27	2.93*	←
GFCFCurrent vs. InternetUsers	27	2.77*	←
GFCFCurrent vs. NetBorrowing	27	2.50*	←
PovertyGap vs. GFCFCurrent	27	5.50***	→
GFCFCurrent vs. TeaRate	27	4.45**	←
GFCFCurrent vs. UnemployR	27	2.35*	←
GiniIndex vs. HealthExpend	27	6.71***	←
InflationR vs. GiniIndex	27	4.46**	→
LendingR vs. GiniIndex	27	6.06***	→
GiniIndex vs. LendingR	27	2.39*	←
GiniIndex vs. PovertyGap	27	2.97*	←
HealthExpend vs. GovExpEducation	27	9.75***	→
InternetUsers vs. GovExpEducation	27	2.60*	→
NetBorrowing vs. GovExpEducation	27	13.73***	→
PovertyGap vs. GovExpEducation	27	2.43*	→
SocialBudget vs. GovExpEducation	27	4.50**	→
TaxRev vs. GovExpEducation	27	4.48**	→
GovExpEducation vs. TeaRate	27	2.52*	←
UnEmployR vs. GovExpEducation	27	4.52**	→
InternetUsers vs. HealthExpend	27	2.40*	→
HealthExpend vs. InternetUsers	27	3.06*	←
LendingRate vs. HealthExpend	27	2.57*	→
HealthExpend vs. LendingRate	27	2.37*	←
HealthExpend vs. NetBorrowing	27	2.30*	←
PovertyGap vs. HealthExpend	27	5.34***	→
SecondaryEdu vs. HealthExpend	27	2.36*	→
TaxRev vs. HealthExpend	27	4.37**	→
HealthExpend vs. TeaRate	27	4.50**	←
HealthExpend vs. UnEmployR	27	4.02**	←
InflationR vs. InternetUsers	27	2.37*	←
InflationR vs. PovertyGap	27	5.81***	←
InflationR vs. TaxRev	27	5.30***	←
NetBorrowing vs. InternetUsers	27	5.45***	→
InternetUsers vs. NetBorrowing	27	5.25***	←
PovertyGap vs. InternetUsers	27	4.81**	→
TaxRev vs. InternetUsers	27	6.58***	→
InternetUsers vs. TaxRev	27	3.17*	←
InternetUsers vs. TeaRate	27	4.02**	←
InternetUsers vs. UnEmployR	27	4.01**	←
PovertyGap vs. LendingRate	27	2.90*	→
SecondaryEdu vs. LendingRate	27	2.15*	→
LendingRate vs. SecondaryEdu	27	5.08**	←
TaxRev vs. LendingRate	27	2.67*	→
LendingRate vs. TaxRev	27	5.86***	←
PovertyGap vs. NetBorrowing	27	3.25*	→
SecondaryEdu vs. NetBorrowing	27	1.80**	→
TaxRev vs. NetBorrowing	27	5.31***	→
NetBorrowing vs. TaxRev	27	3.10*	←
NetBorrowing vs. TeaRate	27	5.81***	←
UnEmployR vs. NetBorrowing	27	4.33**	→
NetBorrowing vs. UnEmployR	27	5.34***	←
TaxRev vs. SecondaryEdu	27	2.74*	→
SecondaryEdu vs. TaxRev	27	5.77***	←
SocialBudget vs. TaxRev	27	5.06**	←
SocialBudget vs. UnEmployR	27	8.32***	←
TaxRev vs. TeaRate	27	5.42***	←
TaxRev vs. UnEmployR	27	2.94*	←
TeaRate vs. UnEmployR	27	6.97***	←

Note. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01 indicate significance at the 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively.

National Treasury. (2023). Budget 2023 - Budget review. National treasury, estimates of national expenditure, 2023. National Treasury, The Presidency, Republic of South Africa.

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Heritage Foundation. (2023). 2023 Index of economic freedom. The Heritage Foundation.

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Data availability statement

The secondary data used in this study are freely available and can be accessed online. We employed data from the World Inequality Report (WIR), the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor’s (GEM) TEA rate, as well as the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom score of South Africa. The authors agree to make their datasets and materials supporting the results or analyses presented in this article available upon request.