Diffusion of Al-Shabaab through ungoverned spaces: can the inkblot logic provide an explanation?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Spatial relations between a fragile state and a stable state in the context of ungoverned spaces.

Source: Author’s construct of the comparison between a fragile state and a stable state: Fragility is manifested in a state’s inability to provide security and development for its citizens, hence creating ungoverned spaces that are conducive for the diffusion of terror groups across territorial borders.

Figure 2. Proposed decision-making pathway model for framing counter-terrorism measures among transnational kinship societies.

Source: Author’s construct comparing hard bonds and loose bonds and their respective implications on the outcome of counterterrorism strategies for the respective decision-making pathways of (a) a relationship-based approach; and (b) a policy- and rule-based approach.

Figure 3. Formation of cross-border ‘homes’ and the export of terrorist activities.

Source: Author’s construct of how terror-related activities, behaviours, and assets are ‘exported’ from ungoverned spaces in Somalia to the Kenyan space. It is important to note that the ethnic interactions between the Somalia Somalis and the Kenyan Somalia does not always lead to the destructive outcome of terror. There are other constructive outcomes such as trade, exchange of information, and social safety nets that communities benefit from through informal interactions.