Nomogram predicting macroscopic finding with limited or no clinical implication in 19175 patients referred to esophagogastroduodenoscopy

Figures & data

Figure 1. Flow chart of all patients who underwent EGD in the study period and selection of study population.

Table 1. Frequency of findings in 30,821 pairs of indications and findings in 19,175 EGDs

Finding	n	%
Finding with limited or no clinical implication	20,512	66.6
Normal	6,543	21.2
Hiatus hernia	4,351	14.1
GERD	4,313	14.0
Gastritis	2,609	8.5
Other minor or unspecific	2,000	6.5
Unspecified duodenitis	696	2.3
Finding with or possibly with implication	10,309	33.4
Cancer and metaplasia
Polyp (stomach)	835	2.7
Barret’s esophagus	308	1.0
Polyp (duodenum)	214	0.7
Stomach cancer	158	0.5
Esophageal cancer	137	0.4
Suspected stomach cancer	116	0.4
Ectopic gastric mucosa	83	0.3
Polyp (esophagus)	74	0.2
Suspected esophagus cancer	63	0.2
Suspected malignancy duodenum or pancreas	25	0.1
Inflammation
Gastroduodenitis	644	2.1
Erosive gastritis	524	1.7
Atrophic gastritis	522	1.7
Esophageal candidiasis	409	1.3
Erosive duodenitis	323	1.0
Ulcer or vasculatory
Duodenal ulcer	1,027	3.3
Stomach ulcer	983	3.2
Stomach erosion	724	2.3
Esophageal ulcer	353	1.1
Duodenal ulcer with bleeding	192	0.6
Vascular anomaly stomach	171	0.6
Mallory–Weiss lesion	139	0.5
Pylori Ulcer	123	0.4
Vascular anomaly duodenum	121	0.4
Stomach ulcer (with bleeding)	107	0.3
Anatomical
Esophageal stricture	490	1.6
Stomach retention	332	1.1
Deformation bulbi duodeni	287	0.9
Esophageal varices	251	0.8
Esophageal diverticulum	79	0.3
Foreign body	76	0.2
Fundus varices	69	0.2
Pyloric stenosis	66	0.2

Figure 2. Age distribution of findings with limited or no implication (solid lines) and findings with or possibly with implication (dashed lines) in females (a) and males (b).

Figure 3. Rate of patients who underwent EGD in different five-year periods (females, solid line; males, dashed line).

Table 2. Findings in EGDs with the indication of suspicious malignancy (n = 599)

Finding	n	%
Cancer (macroscopic)	79	13.2
Stomach cancer (certain)	29	4.8
Stomach cancer (uncertain)	27	4.5
Esophageal cancer (certain)	9	1.5
Esophageal cancer (uncertain)	9	1.5
Malignancy duodenum/pancreas	5	0.8
Metaplasia	51	8.5
Stomach polyp	29	4.8
Barrett’s esophagus	9	1.5
Duodenal polyp	6	1.0
Ectopic stomach mucosa	4	0.7
Esophageal polyp	3	0.5
Other (most commonly listed)	469	78.3
Normal EGD	76	12.7
Gastritis	63	10.5
Hiatus hernia	52	8.7
GERD	37	6.2
Stomach ulcer	32	5.3
Atrophic gastritis	31	5.2

Figure 4. Nomogram predicting finding with limited or no implication upon EGD. Add points for age (1) and points for indication by sex (2) to determine total points (1 + 2). The probability of finding with limited or no implication can be read by matching with the total point scale.

Figure 5. ROC analysis of the nomogram-calculated probability (a) and scatter plot (b) where each circle represents a pair of nomogram-calculated probability of finding with limited or no clinical implication and the actual finding rate within each subgroup (n = 256) of age and sex/indication combinations.