The Nuclear Fuel Cycle and the Proliferation “Danger Zone”

Figures & data

Figure 1. IAEA physical model nuclear weapon acquisition path.

Table 1. Nuclear fuel cycle index for 14 countries of interest.

Fuel cycle element by state	Uranium mining and milling	Uranium conversion	Uranium enrichment	Fuel fabrication	Heavy water production	Spent-fuel reprocessing	Research reactors	Power reactors	Total NFC Index
Argentina (1995)	10	10	6	10	8	1	10	10	7.2
Argentina (2019)	10	10	7	10	10	1	10	10	7.6
Brazil (1998)	10	7	7	10	0	4	10	7	6.6
Brazil (2019)	10	7^a	7	10	0	4^b	10	10	6.9
India (1974)	9	8	0	9	10	7	10	5	6.5
India (1998)	10	10	7	10	10	10	10	10	9.4
Iran (2019)	7	7	10	7	10	1	10	3	6.6
Iraq (1991)	5	5	3	5	0	2	9	0	3.4
Israel (1979)	7	7	5	7	0	10	6	0	5.7
Japan (1970)	6	0	0	8	0	4	10	0	3.2
Japan (2019)	7^a	7^a	10	10	0	7	10	10	7.8
Libya (2003)	1	5	2	1	1	1	10	0	2.4
North Korea (2006)	7	7	2	7	0	10	10	0	5.5
Pakistan (1990)	7	8	8	8	10	0	9	7	6.5
Pakistan (1998)	7	10	10	10	10	1	10	9	7.8
Saudi Arabia (1988)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Saudi Arabia (2019)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
South Africa (1982)	10	6	7	6	0	0	8	0	4.4
South Korea (1968)	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.3
South Korea (2019)	0	6^a	1	10	0	7	10	10	5.2
Syria (2007)	1	0	1	0	0	0	5	0	0.8

Accumulated nuclear knowledge (peak levels).

^aCurrently shut down but demonstrated mastery at the pilot scale.

^bCurrently shut down but demonstrated mastery at the laboratory scale.

Figure 2. Historical cases of nuclear proliferation, forbearance, and rollback with theorized proliferation risk assessment.