Machine Learning-Based Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Elderly Patients with Cirrhotic Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Ablation Therapy

Figures & data

Table 1 Comparison of Baseline Characteristics Between the Training and Validation Cohorts

Characteristic	Training Cohort(N=515)	Validation Cohort(N=221)	P value
Gender (male/female)	398(77.3%)/117(22.7%)	171(77.4%)/50(22.6%)	0.978
Hypertension (yes/no)	149(28.9%)/366(71.1%)	62(28.1%)/159(71.9%)	0.809
Diabetes (yes/no)	127(24.7%)/388(75.3%)	53(24.0%)/168(76.0%)	0.844
Antiviral treatment (yes/no)	293(56.9%)/222(43.1%)	132(59.7%)/89(40.3%)	0.475
Smoking (yes/no)	227(44.1%)/288(55.9%)	97(43.9%)/124(56.1%)	0.963
Alcohol drinking (yes/no)	179(34.8%)/336(65.2%)	75(33.9%)/146(66.1%)	0.830
ALD (yes/no)	118(22.9%)/397(77.1%)	52(23.5%)/169(76.5%)	0.856
Child-Pugh class (A/B)	368(71.5%)/147(28.5%)	154(69.7%)/67(30.3%)	0.627
BCLC stage (0/A)	151(29.3%)/364(70.7%)	66(29.9%)/155(70.1%)	0.882
Tumor number (Single/multiple)	359(69.7%)/156(30.3%)	150(67.9%)/71(32.1%)	0.621
Tumor size (≤3cm/>3cm)	342(66.4%)/173(33.6%)	147(66.5%)/74(33.5%)	0.997
NLR	3.23±2.75	3.12±2.43	0.623
PLR	107.20±53.81	109.34±62.92	0.640
MLR	0.38±0.22	0.36±0.19	0.272
WBCs (10^9/L)	4.96±2.15	4.83±1.84	0.441
RBCs (10^9/L)	4.07±0.63	4.09±0.61	0.748
Hb (g/L)	127.94±19.56	129.08±18.90	0.464
ALT (U/L)	30.18±18.19	29.92±18.24	0.860
AST (U/L)	32.25±14.68	32.22±15.02	0.983
TBIL (μmol/L)	20.17±10.36	19.79±10.02	0.651
DBIL (μmol/L)	7.01±4.81	7.08±4.90	0.872
Total protein	65.16±7.09	65.64±7.54	0.410
Alb (g/L)	36.70±4.47	36.87±5.09	0.642
Glob (g/L)	28.53±5.37	29.22±5.71	0.114
GGT (U/L)	67.77±60.33	69.23±62.08	0.765
ALP (U/L)	90.23±37.27	92.25±35.61	0.496
Palb (U/L)	131.12±55.87	130.14±50.63	0.824
Bile acid (μmol/L)	23.11±26.66	24.02±31.60	0.687
BUN (mmol/L)	5.25±2.93	4.95±1.74	0.166
Creatinine (μmol/L)	68.10±60.75	64.13±16.30	0.340
Uric acid (μmol/L)	280.12±91.84	286.91±91.93	0.358
PTA (%)	84.72±14.42	83.74±15.56	0.408
INR	1.13±0.13	1.14±0.15	0.127

Abbreviations: ALD, alcoholic liver disease; NLR, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio; PLR, platelets to lymphocytes ratio; MLR, monocytes to lymphocytes ratio; WBCs, white blood cells; RBCs, red blood cells; Hb, hemoglobin; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; TBIL, total bilirubin; DBIL, direct bilirubin; Alb, albumin; Glob, globulin; GGT, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase; ALP, alkaline phosphatase; Palb, prealbumin; PTA, prothrombin time activity; INR, international normalized ratio.

Figure 1 Screening independent risk factors for OS using LASSO regression analysis.

Abbreviations: OS, overall survival; LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator.

Figure 2 Screening independent risk factors for OS using RSF model.

Abbreviations: OS, overall survival; RSF, random survival forest; Palb, prealbumin; Alb, albumin; Hb, hemoglobin; Glob, globulin; RBCs, red blood cells; GGT, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase; PTA, prothrombin time activity; INR, international normalized ratio; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; ALD, alcoholic liver disease; WBCs, white blood cells; NLR, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio; MLR, monocytes to lymphocytes ratio.

Figure 3 Forest plot display of multivariate Cox regression analysis results.

Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; MLR, monocytes to lymphocytes ratio; WBCs, white blood cells; Alb, albumin; Glob, globulin; GGT, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase; Palb, prealbumin; PTA, prothrombin time activity.

Figure 4 Nomogram developed for predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS of elderly cirrhotic HCC patients undergoing ablation therapy.

Abbreviations: OS, overall survival; Glob, globulin; Palb, prealbumin.

Figure 5 ROC curve analysis of the nomogram for 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS prediction in the training cohort.

Abbreviations: ROC, receiver operating characteristic; OS, overall survival; AUC, area under the curve.

Figure 6 Calibration plots of the nomogram for 3-year (A), 5-year (B), and 8-year (C) OS prediction in the training cohort.

Abbreviation: OS, overall survival.

Figure 7 DCA curve analysis of the nomogram for 3-year (A), 5-year (B), and 8-year (C) OS prediction in the training cohort.

Abbreviations: DCA, decision curve analysis; OS, overall survival.

Figure 8 Kaplan-Meier survival curves for OS based on the nomogram-derived low, intermediate, and high-risk groups in the training cohort.

Abbreviation: OS, overall survival.